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Oil Companies Cut Upstream Expenditure by $100bn in Five Years

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  • Oil Companies Cut Upstream Expenditure by $100bn in Five Years

Capital expenditure (Capex) in the oil and gas industry in sub-Saharan Africa has been cut by $100 billion over the next five years, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest report on upstream activity in the region.

The new report revealed that deepwater has suffered the deepest Capex cuts due to its high breakeven price relative to other sectors and identified Nigeria and Angola as having endured the worst of these cuts.

As a result, Wood Mackenzie predicted that sub-Saharan African liquids production will decline to 2.6 million barrels a day by 2030, from 4.8 million barrels a day presently.

While acknowledging that the giant Owowo discovery made by ExxonMobil in deepwater Nigeria shows the quality of resources Sub-Saharan Africa still has to offer but added that the major oil companies that heavily invested in Sub-Saharan Africa account for the bulk of the capex cuts.

For operators with deep pockets, the report identified Mozambique, Angola and Nigeria as leaders in upstream mergers and acquisitions (M&A) opportunities.

The report however noted that the M&A market has slowed down as buyers and sellers are unable to align on asset values due to oil price volatility.

According to the report, “deal activity may see an uptick if prices remain low for longer, as companies opt to divest non-core assets.”

Wood Mackenzie further revealed that exploration cuts will contribute to 46 per cent oil production decline by 2030, adding that governments in Sub-Saharan Africa need to revive the industry with attractive fiscal terms.

The report described East Africa’s emergence as a major global gas region as the industry’s biggest recent success in Sub-Saharan Africa Speaking on the report, the Senior Research Manager for Sub-Saharan Africa at Wood Mackenzie, Mr. Femi Oso stated that exploration cuts in the region would lead to long-term slump in crude oil production.

“Exploration cuts in the region will also contribute to a longer-term production slump as explorers have shied away from greenfield prospects, in favour of appraising known discoveries. However, the confirmation of the giant Owowo discovery in deepwater Nigeria shows the quality of resources that Sub-Saharan Africa still has to offer,” Oso added.

Wood Mackenzie expects a slow recovery for exploration, adding that operators will benefit from cost deflation and will improve efficiency through streamlining project design.

“Governments in Sub-Saharan Africa need to revive the upstream oil and gas industry by offering attractive fiscal terms rather than look to increase state revenues in the current climate,” Oso added.

Wood Mackenzie described East Africa’s emergence as a gas region of global importance as the biggest upstream success story in Sub-Saharan Africa.

“With over 168 trillion cubic feet of gas found and limited regional demand, East Africa is on track to become a major global LNG supplier and various export projects are awaiting final investment decision,” said the report.

According to Wood Mackenzie’s research, Mozambique and Tanzania gas project economics are resilient and will “transform the global LNG market”.

“Mozambique and Tanzania’s LNG projects have remained relatively unscathed by cuts and will be timed to align with global LNG demand growth to achieve a better price,” Oso said.

“The projects will appeal to buyers looking to diversify their portfolios and BP has already committed to offtake all volumes from Eni’s Coral FLNG,” he added.

“The expected increase in gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa, from 6 billion cubic feet a day (bcfd) currently to 13 bcfd next decade, is very good news for the region,” Oso explained.

The report acknowledged that onshore LNG plants remain the preferred way to monetise gas, although liquefaction via third-party-owned floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) vessels is emerging as a simpler and less expensive alternative.

“Floating storage regasification units (FSRU) and piped gas supply to the power sector will play an increasingly important role in the longer term as domestic markets develop from their very low base. An FSRU is a floating LNG import terminal,” Wood Mackenzie added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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