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Election Angst Spreads as Stocks Drop, Bonds Rise With Gold, Yen

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Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton
  • Election Angst Spreads as Stocks Drop, Bonds Rise With Gold, Yen

Global stocks fell toward a three-month low and bonds jumped as investors crowded into haven assets after polls showed Donald Trump gaining ground in next week’s U.S. presidential election.

Shares in Europe slumped for the eighth consecutive day and futures foreshadowed a seventh day of losses for U.S. equities. Currency markets also reflected the growing unease in financial markets, with the yen and Swiss franc strengthening, and Mexico’s peso, seen as a barometer of the election, extending its biggest decline since July. Gold climbed to a one-month high and Treasuries rose as the looming election pushed a Federal Reserve policy decision into the background. Crude oil fell after a report showed American stockpiles expanded.

In a sign of fraying nerves, a Bank of America Corp. index tracking volatility has jumped 64 percent since it touched its lowest level in two years last week. That’s as Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton has seen her odds of winning the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election falter after an FBI examination into her e-mails was restarted Friday. In an open letter on Tuesday, 370 economists, including some Nobel laureates, warned that Trump is “a dangerous, destructive choice,” because he “promotes magical thinking and conspiracy theories,” a statement that was quickly denounced by a top adviser as out of touch with reality.

“This is a year of surprises and backlash against convention,” said Paul Wildman, an analyst at Avalon Capital based in London. Trump “leans toward more protectionism,” he said.

Stocks

The MSCI All Country World Index of shares slipped 0.2 percent as of 7:54 a.m. in New York, set for the lowest close since July 12. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.4 percent, with almost all industry groups down. Automakers slid the most as the euro strengthened versus the dollar, potentially harming exports, while financial firms also tumbled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by the most since September, with Japanese shares retreating from a six-month high before the nation’s financial markets shut Thursday for a holiday.

Europe’s VStoxx Index added 1.6 percent, taking its advance into an eighth day, the longest streak in more than five years. Still, the measure of volatility expectations is in line with its average over the last year, and other measures of risk are below the highs seen when Britain voted to leave the European Union in June.

An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll on Tuesday showed Trump, a Republican, with 46 percent support to Clinton’s 45 percent, putting him ahead for the first time since May. Futures on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.3 percent.

“The Trump risk is in revival,” said Chihiro Ohta, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “With Trump, there always follows an uneasiness over whether policies will be managed properly in the U.S.”

Danske Bank A/S helped position a gauge of lenders as among the worst performers on the Stoxx 600, dropping 2.5 percent after A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S sold its remaining stake in Denmark’s biggest bank. Maersk lost 9.4 percent after reporting a slump in earnings as the shipping industry suffers from overcapacity. Hugo Boss AG rose 6.5 percent after reporting better-than-estimated profit due to cost cuts and growth in China.

Sony Corp. sank to a two-month low after the Japanese electronics maker’s quarterly profit missed estimates and Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. tumbled 12 percent after the company lowered its full-year earnings target.
Companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Facebook Inc. report earnings Wednesday.

Currencies

The yen climbed 0.7 percent against the dollar, after surging 0.6 percent in the last session. The franc also added 0.4 percent following a 1.4 percent jump that marked its biggest gain in about five months.

Mexico’s peso slid 0.8 percent versus the greenback and touched its weakest level since Sept. 30. The currency tends to lose ground when support builds for Trump, who has said he would revisit the North American Free Trade Agreement that governs commerce between the U.S. and Mexico.

The won dropped as much as 1.1 percent to its weakest level since July as South Korean President Park Geun-hye replaced her prime minister and finance chief on Wednesday to help stem the fallout from a political scandal that threatens her grip on power.

South Africa’s rand rallied as much as 1.7 percent to a five-week high after President Jacob Zuma withdrew a court application to halt the release of a graft ombudsman’s report into allegations the Gupta family, who are his friends, had too much influence over the government.

The kiwi gained 1.3 percent after New Zealand’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since 2008. A tightening labor market could help Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler lift inflation back to the middle of his 1-3 percent target band, negating the need for further policy easing.

Commodities

Gold added 0.6 percent, after a 0.9 percent gain on Tuesday. Before the FBI letter to Congress came out, futures had been stuck in a narrow trading range, with price swings measured by the 60-day historical volatility near the lowest in almost two years.

The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex fell for the first time in eight days, as zinc retreated from a five-year high in London and aluminum slid from its highest close since June 2015.

Crude oil fell 1.4 percent to a one-month low in New York after industry data showed American inventories increased by 9.3 million barrels last week. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members Libya and Nigeria are boosting output, providing a challenge to the group’s effort to finalize an agreement to curb production and stabilize prices.

Bonds

Haven demand boosted sovereign bonds, with 10-year yields falling across most of the developed world.

The yield on Treasuries due in a decade fell three basis points to 1.80 percent, after touching a five-month high of 1.88 percent in the last session. It’s unlikely the rate will climb too far past 2 percent anytime soon given how the American economy is performing, according to Jim Caron at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, which oversees $406 billion.

While the Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged when a two-day meeting concludes Wednesday, futures indicate a 68 percent chance of a rate hike by year-end and investors will be on the lookout for any hints the authority may give regarding the policy outlook.

Yields on German 10-year bunds, the euro region’s benchmark securities, headed for their biggest drop in almost six weeks, slipping six basis points to 0.12 percent. Yields on similar-maturity U.K. gilts dropped eleven basis points to 1.17 percent, and those on Spanish 10-year debt fell eight basis points to 1.21 percent.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Markets

Ogun Govt Begins Sale Of ₦40,000 Rice, vows to Take Subsidized Foods to LGAs

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bags of rice

The Ogun State government under the leadership of Dapo Abiodun has commenced the sale of 50kg bags of rice for 40,000 Naira in the state.

Investors King reported that the subsidized rice program is part of the strategies by President Bola Tinubu’s government to address the economic hardship in the country.

Governor Dapo Abiodun, during the launching ceremony of the initiative held at the Arcade ground, Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, revealed plans by his administration to extend the subsidized food initiative to the twenty local government areas of the state.

He noted that the subsidized food initiative would not be limited to rice only, other items including garri, rice, and beans would be available for purchase at significantly reduced prices.

The governor said, “We will soon be implementing our own version of this scheme from each local government, meaning we will implement this across the twenty local government areas of the state to deepen the reach into our grassroots.

“We will be selling food items like garri, rice, and beans at heavily subsidized prices.”

“The distribution will include various groups such as federal and state civil servants, private sector organizations, craftsmen, trade unions, NGOs, student groups, market vendors, community development groups, and religious and traditional groups,” he added.

He reassured the state’s citizens that the Head of Service’s office, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the NSA’s office had created a comprehensive plan to ensure the fair distribution of the product throughout the state’s 20 local government areas.

The governor emphasized the need for accountability, noting that cash payments would not be accepted. 

However, he revealed that payments would be made via Point of Sales (PoS) machines.

Abiodun warned against double registration, adding that beneficiaries’ NIN will be verified after a physical screening at the point of sale.

According to the governor, the launch of the subsidized rice sale in Abeokuta for Ogun Central Senatorial District, Ilaro for Ogun West Senatorial District, and Ijebu-Ode for Ogun East Senatorial District will commence immediately.

“To ensure accountability, there will be no cash payments; payment will be made through Point of Sales (PoS) machines, and beneficiaries will undergo physical verification at the point of sale.

“No double registration will be allowed; NIN will be verified to ensure that we prevent any sharp practices.

“This distribution will be carried out transparently and fairly, ensuring that these palliatives reach those we have targeted,” he said.

Governor Abiodun concluded by describing the initiative as a sign of President Tinubu’s dedication to addressing the problem of rising food prices and cushioning the effect of the fuel subsidy removal.

On October 2, the Federal Government announced that Lagos, Kano, and Borno will be the next states that will benefit from its subsidized rice program.

According to a director at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, plans are already underway to roll out the food subsidy program in these states.

 

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Crude Oil

High US Fuel Demand, Middle East Risk Buoy Oil Prices

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The price of major oil benchmarks jumped more than 3 percent on Thursday following increased fuel demand in the United States due to Hurricane Milton and Middle East supply risks.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose $2.82, or 3.7 percent to settle at $79.40 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.61, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $75.85.

In the US, the world’s largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton hit Florida and knocked out power to more than 3.4 million homes and terminals.

Market analysts noted that the closures of several product terminals, delayed tanker truck deliveries and disrupted pipeline movement will likely be affecting supplies well into next week given broad based power outages.

This will serve as a positive news for the market as disruptions generally lend support.

Recall that crude benchmarks spiked earlier this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on October 1.

This raised the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Iran is backing several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.

However, since Israel is yet to respond, crude benchmarks have eased.

Despite this, investors remained wary, given that Israel has vowed to wait and strike at the best time.

Israel has continued to fight in Lebanon as it Reuters reported that a strike on central Beirut on Thursday night killed 11 people and wounded at least 48.

In Yemen, the Houthis said they targeted vessels in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, Gulf states are lobbying the US to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Iran’s allies if the conflict escalates.

Support came as investors express confidence that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in November after data showed an increase in weekly jobless claims and an annual rise in inflation that was the lowest since February 2021.

The US central bank started to lower interest rates in September after hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023.

 

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Petrol

NLC Slams NNPC Price Hike, Warns of Increased Poverty and Job Losses

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petrol

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has reacted to the recent increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) popularly known as petrol by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

The union, via a statement signed by its president, Joe Ajaero, on Wednesday, revealed that the increase will further deepen poverty in the country, reduce production capacities, and render many people jobless.

The NLC president asked why NNPC, a private company, is fixing the price of petrol, a move he described as ‘a hegemonic monopoly’.

Ajaero called for the intervention of the Federal Government, adding that the government should present a roadmap for inclusive economic growth and national development.

Furthermore, the NLC called for the immediate reversal of the price increase.

He said “Even following the logic of market forces, we find it an aberration that a private company (NNPCL) is the one fixing prices and projecting itself as a hegemonic monopoly.

“We challenge the government to go to the drawing board and present us with a blueprint for inclusive economic growth and national development instead of this spasmodic ad hocism and palliative policy.

“It needs no stating the fact that the latest wave of increase has grossly altered the calculations of Nigerians once again at a time they were reluctantly coming to terms with their new realities. It will further deepen poverty as production capacities dip and more jobs are lost with multidimensional negative effects.

“In light of this, we urge the government to immediately reverse this rate hike as previous increases did not produce any good results. People only got poorer. But more fundamentally, the government should be bold enough to tell Nigerians in advance the destination it wants to take the country.”

Investors King reported that the NNPC officially announced an increase in the ex-depot price of fuel.

This latest development was detailed in a new price list by the NNPC on Wednesday, October 9.

While the ex-depot price in Lagos stands at ₦1,010 per litre, marketers in Port Harcourt will buy at ₦1,045 and in Calabar is now set at ₦1,050 per litre.

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