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December Fed Hike Odds Approach 80% as Traders Pivot to Payrolls

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  • December Fed Hike Odds Approach 80% as Traders Pivot to Payrolls

Futures traders added to wagers that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy next month after officials left interest rates on hold and kept the option open for a hike by year-end.

Treasury yields remained lower as policy makers said “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen” as they kept its range at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, as forecast by all 90 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Officials came into 2016 projecting four hikes this year but haven’t moved once amid signs of tepid inflation and stagnant global growth.

The 78 percent probability traders are assigning to a rate hike is up from 68 percent on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as policy makers noted growing confidence that inflation is on track to reach their 2 percent target. The probabilities are based on the assumption the effective fed funds rate will trade at the middle of the new range after the central bank’s next hike. Investors now turn their attention to the Nov. 4 release of the Labor Department’s October jobs report for the next clue to the path of monetary policy.

“This is as close as you can get to a data-dependent Fed saying they are most likely to go in December,” said Brent Schutte, Milwaukee-based chief investment strategist of Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co.’s wealth-management unit, which oversees $89 billion. “The most important thing is the labor-force participation rate.”

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields fell about two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.8 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data.

‘Baby Steps’

Yields on two-year notes, the coupon maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, fell one basis point to 0.82 percent.

The day’s gains in Treasuries mark a reversal, with global bond markets coming off their worst month in two years amid investor concern that major central banks were preparing to gradually reduce unprecedented monetary stimulus. Traders were watching for an explicit message from the Fed that a hike is imminent, following months of signaling by officials that higher borrowing costs were warranted.

“The market is reflecting the obvious, which is that the Fed is taking baby steps to the hike,” said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC. “In September they clearly signaled a strong intent to go once this year. They’ll go at their last opportunity.”

U.S. nonfarm payrolls probably climbed by 175,000 last month, compared with an increase of 156,000 in September, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Election Outlook

Policy makers said Wednesday that the pace of price increases “has increased somewhat since earlier this year” and that market-based measures of inflation compensation “have moved up.”

“I don’t think that they necessarily paved the way for a December hike, but as they stated, the case has continued to strengthen,” said Justin Lederer, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Cantor Fitzgerald LP, one of 23 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “I think that ultimately rates do go higher but it may not be right away” because of uncertainty around the U.S. election.

A Bloomberg poll of independents showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton narrowly ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in a four-way race. It’s the latest example of how the race has tightened after the Federal Bureau of Investigation announced on Oct. 28 that the agency was examining newly discovered e-mails that might pertain to Clinton’s use of a private electronic service while she was secretary of state.

Some investors said the Fed’s decision next month will be affected by the election result.

“Reading between the lines of their statement, the Fed is waiting for the election results before deciding on a December rate hike,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director of government trading and strategy at Seaport Global Holdings in New York.

Swaps trading shows the expectation for a slow tightening cycle. Overnight index swap contracts implied the central bank’s benchmark rate will be just below one percent in three years, essentially indicating about two hikes, and less than half the median level seen by policy makers.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

US Dollar

Dollar Drops as Traders Prepare for Inflation Data

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Forex Weekly Outlook October 31-November 4

The dollar slipped on Monday towards a three-week low as Treasury yields traded near recent lows and traders awaited crucial U.S. inflation and retail sales data in coming days.

Elsewhere, it was a quiet start to a data-heavy week for foreign exchange markets. The euro climbed back above $1.19 while the British pound rebounded from a two-month low.

The dollar’s performance has been tied to U.S. Treasury yields for most of 2021, after concern about rising inflation in the United States and a stimulus-fueled economic rebound triggered a jump in Treasury yields in February.

A fall in U.S. yields last week triggered the worst week for the dollar in 2021. With yields inching lower on Monday, it was back under pressure.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a U.S. media interview released on Sunday that the U.S. economy was at “an inflection point” and looked set for a strong rebound in the coming months, but he also warned of risks stemming from a hasty re-opening.

Investors are now waiting for U.S. March inflation data due on Tuesday.

“We are set to see the first evidence of the much anticipated surge in inflation that is widely expected through the coming months as base effects from a year ago begin to take effect as the sharp declines post-COVID start to fall out of the annual calculations,” MUFG analysts said.

They said the dollar’s fortunes could well “remain linked to 10-year yields”.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.664% after dropping to as low as 1.6170% last week. It had surged to a more than a one-year high of 1.7760% on March 30.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of currencies, weakened 0.2% to 92.03. The euro initially dropped but later recovered and was up 0.1% to $1.1915.

Bitcoin traded above $60,000, closing the gap to its record high.

Against the pound the dollar initially gained before reversing course. The British currency was last up 0.5% at $1.3763 after briefly touching a two-month low of $1.3669 as traders cheered the latest phase of the government’s economic re-opening plan.

The dollar fell 0.3% to 109.33 yen versus the Japanese currency.

U.S. dollar net short positions have fallen to their lowest in nearly three years, according to data published on Friday.

ING analysts noted that speculators had cut their net short dollar positions for the 12th consecutive week, which could prove a headwind for further dollar gains.

“At this stage, the dollar has lost all its positioning “advantage”, having a neutral speculative positioning, which suggests we should no longer see dollar rallies against most G10 currencies exacerbated by the unwinding of USD shorts,” they wrote.

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Naira

Naira Daily Foreign Exchange Rates for Friday, April 9, 2021

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate

Naira exchanged at N485 to a United States Dollar on Friday, April 9 2021 at the parallel market. Against the British Pound, it traded at N670 and N574 to a Euro. 

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
09/04/2021 480/485 662/670 565/574 62/69 393/400 292/320
08/04/2021 480/485 662/670 565/573 62/69 393/400 292/320
07/04/2021 478/485 662/670 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
06/04/2021 478/486 664/674 563/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
05/04/2021 478/486 664/674 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
02/04/2021 478/486 662/672 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
31/03/2021 482/486 672/678 565/673 62/69 392/400 292/320
30/03/2021 482/486 672/678 567/577 62/69 392/400 290/325
29/03/2021 480/485 670/677 568/575 62/69 390/400 290/325
26/03/2021 480/485 670/680 568/578 62/69 390/400 290/325
25/03/2021 480/486 672/680 570/580 62/69 390/400 290/320
24/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/581 62/69 393/400 295/320
23/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/582 60/68 390/400 295/320
22/03/2021 480/486 672/680 582/582 60/68 390/400 285/300
19/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/583 60/68 390/400 282/300
18/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
17/03/2021 478/485 670/678 572/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
16/03/2021 478/485 670/680 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
15/03/2021 478/485 670/676 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
12/03/2021 477/485 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
11/03/2021 475/482 668/675 568/575 60/68 386/398 282/300
10/03/2021 477/484 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
09/03/2021 475/484 670/675 578/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
08/03/2021 475/482 670/675 578/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 577/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
09/04/2021 472/482 661/673 56/570
08/04/2021 473/482 662/673 561/572
07/04/2021 475/485 661/674 560/573
06/04/2021 475/485 662/674 550/573
05/04/2021 475/485 662/674 560/574
04/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
03/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
02/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
01/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
31/03/2021 475/485 665/675 560/574
30/03/2021 475/485 668/675 564/574
29/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
26/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
25/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
24/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
23/03/2021 475/485 668/678 570/577
22/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/577
19/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/578
18/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/578
17/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
16/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
15/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
12/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
11/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
10/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
09/03/2021 470/480 665/674 567/580
08/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

 

 

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates; Wednesday, April 7, 2021

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naira

Naira traded at N485 to a United States Dollar on Wednesday 07, April 2021 at the black market. While against the British Pound it sold at N670 and N573 to a single Euro as shown below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
07/04/2021 480/485 662/670 565/574 62/69 392/400 292/320
06/04/2021 478/486 664/674 563/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
05/04/2021 478/486 664/674 565/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
02/04/2021 478/486 662/672 565/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
31/03/2021 482/486 672/678 565/573 62/69 392/400 292/320
30/03/2021 482/486 672/678 567/577 62/69 392/400 290/325
29/03/2021 480/485 670/677 568/575 62/69 390/400 290/325
26/03/2021 480/485 670/680 568/578 62/69 390/400 290/325
25/03/2021 480/486 672/680 570/580 62/69 390/400 290/320
24/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/581 62/69 393/400 295/320
23/03/2021 480/486 672/680 572/582 60/68 390/400 295/320
22/03/2021 480/486 672/680 582/582 60/68 390/400 285/300
19/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/583 60/68 390/400 282/300
18/03/2021 480/485 672/680 573/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
17/03/2021 478/485 670/678 572/582 60/68 390/400 282/300
16/03/2021 478/485 670/680 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
15/03/2021 478/485 670/676 572/582 60/68 386/398 282/300
12/03/2021 477/485 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
11/03/2021 475/482 668/675 568/575 60/68 386/398 282/300
10/03/2021 477/484 670/675 570/580 60/68 386/398 282/300
09/03/2021 475/484 670/675 578/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
08/03/2021 475/482 670/675 578/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 577/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 282/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
07/04/2021 475/485 662/674 560/573
06/04/2021 475/485 662/674 550/573
05/04/2021 475/485 662/674 560/574
04/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
03/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
02/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
01/04/2021 475/485 660/675 560/574
31/03/2021 475/485 665/675 560/574
30/03/2021 475/485 668/675 564/574
29/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
26/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/576
25/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
24/03/2021 475/485 667/675 569/576
23/03/2021 475/485 668/678 570/577
22/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/577
19/03/2021 475/485 670/678 570/578
18/03/2021 475/485 668/675 569/578
17/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
16/03/2021 475/485 667/674 569/578
15/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
12/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
11/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
10/03/2021 470/480 665/674 560/578
09/03/2021 470/480 665/674 567/580
08/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

 

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