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Dollar Falls as Fed Needs More Evidence for December Rate Hike

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  • Dollar Falls as Fed Needs More Evidence for December Rate Hike

The dollar dropped, extending the longest losing streak since July, as currency traders seeking a clearer signal that Federal Reserve policy makers are determined to raise rates this year were left disappointed.

The greenback weakened against most of its major peers, led by the kiwi and the rand, as the central bank left its key interest-rate target unchanged and said officials want further evidence before tightening monetary policy next month. Investors are also coping with uncertainty just six days before the tightening U.S. presidential election and two days before the October employment report.

“The risks are skewed to a softer dollar” against the euro, yen and Swiss franc, before the election, said Bipan Rai, senior foreign-exchange and macro strategist in Toronto at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “Markets were expecting an explicit signal, and it doesn’t look like the Fed was comfortable sending that message a week before the election.”

The dollar has fallen 2.5 percent this year as Fed officials have held off from raising interest rates on concerns ranging from Brexit to lackluster global growth. While the Fed officials said they are confident that inflation is on track to reach their 2 percent target, foreign-exchange strategists said the central-bank statement remained in line with recent policy-makers’ comments.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2 percent in New York, its fourth straight decline. The greenback declined 0.4 percent to $1.1098 per euro and dropped 0.8 percent to 103.30 yen.

Fed Watch

Regardless of when the Fed moves, dollar bulls face the prospect of the slowest and shallowest tightening cycle in recent history, based on the market for overnight index swaps, which reflect expectations for the fed funds effective rate. The contracts imply the rate will rise to about 0.96 percent in three years from 0.41 percent now — essentially just two hikes during the next 36 months.

“It makes the case for gradual rate hikes — and tees up December nicely,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia. “For now, the markets will revert to watching headlines and news on the election. That may leave the dollar trading somewhat defensively in the near term.”

The decision to forgo a rate increase had been widely expected owing to the proximity of next week’s election and the lack of a scheduled news briefing after this meeting. Now the focus will shift to the FOMC’s Dec. 13-14 gathering.

Hedge funds and other speculators are among those with the most at risk. They’ve been betting on dollar gains since May, with bets that the dollar would rise outnumbered bearish positions by 189,087 contracts in the week ended Oct. 25, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“The dollar is biased to underperform,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist in Newark, New Jersey, for the fixed-income division of Prudential Financial Inc. “We’re captive to the polls, the news flow, and the projection of the election outcome.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,260
  • Selling Rate: N1,250

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Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

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New Naira notes

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.

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Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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