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Dollar Falls as Fed Needs More Evidence for December Rate Hike

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  • Dollar Falls as Fed Needs More Evidence for December Rate Hike

The dollar dropped, extending the longest losing streak since July, as currency traders seeking a clearer signal that Federal Reserve policy makers are determined to raise rates this year were left disappointed.

The greenback weakened against most of its major peers, led by the kiwi and the rand, as the central bank left its key interest-rate target unchanged and said officials want further evidence before tightening monetary policy next month. Investors are also coping with uncertainty just six days before the tightening U.S. presidential election and two days before the October employment report.

“The risks are skewed to a softer dollar” against the euro, yen and Swiss franc, before the election, said Bipan Rai, senior foreign-exchange and macro strategist in Toronto at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “Markets were expecting an explicit signal, and it doesn’t look like the Fed was comfortable sending that message a week before the election.”

The dollar has fallen 2.5 percent this year as Fed officials have held off from raising interest rates on concerns ranging from Brexit to lackluster global growth. While the Fed officials said they are confident that inflation is on track to reach their 2 percent target, foreign-exchange strategists said the central-bank statement remained in line with recent policy-makers’ comments.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2 percent in New York, its fourth straight decline. The greenback declined 0.4 percent to $1.1098 per euro and dropped 0.8 percent to 103.30 yen.

Fed Watch

Regardless of when the Fed moves, dollar bulls face the prospect of the slowest and shallowest tightening cycle in recent history, based on the market for overnight index swaps, which reflect expectations for the fed funds effective rate. The contracts imply the rate will rise to about 0.96 percent in three years from 0.41 percent now — essentially just two hikes during the next 36 months.

“It makes the case for gradual rate hikes — and tees up December nicely,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia. “For now, the markets will revert to watching headlines and news on the election. That may leave the dollar trading somewhat defensively in the near term.”

The decision to forgo a rate increase had been widely expected owing to the proximity of next week’s election and the lack of a scheduled news briefing after this meeting. Now the focus will shift to the FOMC’s Dec. 13-14 gathering.

Hedge funds and other speculators are among those with the most at risk. They’ve been betting on dollar gains since May, with bets that the dollar would rise outnumbered bearish positions by 189,087 contracts in the week ended Oct. 25, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“The dollar is biased to underperform,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist in Newark, New Jersey, for the fixed-income division of Prudential Financial Inc. “We’re captive to the polls, the news flow, and the projection of the election outcome.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Forex

Banks CEOs Declare Readiness, Assured No Hidden Charges In Forex Sale

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate - Investors King

Chief executives of banks have assured no hidden charges in the sale of foreign exchange as they declared their readiness to meet the demands of Forex in the country.

The CEOs under the aegis of the Committee of Chief Executives of Banks at a virtual parley with the media also said they are not interested in procuring bureau de change licenses to dispense the new responsibility thrust on them by the central bank of Nigeria (CBN)

At a media briefing chaired by the chairman, and the managing director of Access Bank, Herbert Wigwe, other CEOs in attendance include Segun Agbaje of GTCO, Yemisi Edun of FCMG amongst others.

The briefing was in reaction to the CBN circular with Ref No: BSD/DIR/PUB/LAB/14/052 which gave a directive to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) to set up teller points at designated branches and sell Foreign Exchange customers in need.

The directive in the circular signed by Haruna Mustafa, Director, Bank Supervision Department, was a follow up to the stoppage by the CBN, of the sale of forex to the Bureau De Change (BDC) operators in the country.

With this development, banks are now to attend to legitimate FX requests for Personal Travel Allowance, Business Travel Allowance, tuition fees, medical payments and SMEs transactions, among others.

The regulator also disclosed that a toll-free line had been set up at the CBN for bank customers to escalate unresolved complaints related to their FX requests.

Speaking at the media briefing, Herbert Wigwe assured of the readiness of the banks to meet the demands of the customers without any additional costs, noting that they have more capacity than the BDCs

“Banks have broader network than the previous sources and if you look at the branch network of all the banks in the country, I am not sure that the alternatives have resources like banks to provide this service to everybody”.

He allayed the fear of hidden charges said the transaction comes at no additional cost to the customers.

“There is no one-cent additional charge. It is unfortunate that bankers always come under pressure every time because of accusations of hidden charges. There is no additional charge in this service,” he stated.

Segun Agbaje, the group managing director of GTCO, promised that the banks will provide several channels for the customers to get their supply for their needs as he assured of the readiness of the banking system.

“They can start to come from today. We are ready to fund their demands”. stating that different banks have different strategies to ensure there are no hitches.

He stated that the control is centralised in each bank while the service is decentralised so as to be able to cater to many at the same time.

“We will run a transparent system and the compliance will be very strict because there will be sanctions. Anyone that refuses to comply with the rules will be sanctioned by the regulator and the law enforcement agencies” as he warned those that could want to come with fake documentation or passport to beat the process.

In her contribution, Yemisi Edun of FCMB assured that customers will have the same experience across the board irrespective of the bank as she allayed that the services may be poor in some banks.

“We have done this with remittance where we dedicate desks to attend to customers and customers will be directed to the desks once they have proper documentation.

In conclusion, Wigwe stated that apart from the injection that could be coming from the CBN, the banks also have their sources for foreign exchange which include from International Monetary Transfer Organisation, Diaspora remittances, and others from where they can meet the customer’s demands.

“We are putting structure and infrastructure in place to meet the demands of the customers but they should come with proper documentation” Wigwe stated

The apex bank expects the DMBs to adequately publicize the locations of the designated branches and make necessary arrangements to sell FX to customers in cash and/or electronically in compliance with extant regulations,

While CBN said the banks should ensure that no customer was turned back or refused FX provided that documentation and all other requirements are satisfied, it also outlaws undue delays, rationing and/or diversion of FX while it compels DMBs to establish electronic application and alert systems to update customers on the status of their FX requests, the circular added.

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Forex

BDCs Continues To Provide Forex Services After CBN Halts Sales Of Forex To Operators

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The recent announcement by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) suspending dollar sales to Bureau de Change Operators would not stop the forex retailers from conducting their services in line with their operating licenses and guidelines.

According to a statement by the President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, BDCs will continue to provide foreign exchange services to the public.

“BDCs are licensed to provide retail FX services, including buying from the public and also selling to end-users for allowable transactions namely Personal Travel Allowance (PTA), Business Travel Allowance (BTA), payment of medical and school fees,” Gwadabe said.

He added that while the dollar sale from CBN had helped in enhancing supply, the fact remains that BDCs are empowered to source FX from other sources and also to provide various services to members of the public.

“While the CBN has stopped dollar sale to BDCs, it has not canceled their operating licenses, or banned them from providing FX services to members of the public”, he added.

“At ABCON, we urge our members to see the CBN pronouncement as a wake-up call and opportunity to widen their customer base and deepen their business.

“ABCON has always worked with the CBN to ensure proper working of the FX market and in line with this principle, we will engage with the apex bank to address and resolve all the issues that led to the recent action, including identification and sanctioning of earring BDCs, where necessary.

“In addition to this, and in view of the fact that BDCs have been very effective in ensuring stable exchange rate, ABCON will work with relevant stakeholders including law enforcement agencies to develop a National BDC Policy with the aim of enhancing the contribution of the BDC subsector to the nation’s economy”, he said.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rates Today, Friday, July 30, 2021

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BDC Operators - Investors King

Naira gained N5 against the United States Dollar on Friday morning to N515 at the parallel market popularly known as the black market.

Against the British Pound, the local currency dropped N2 from N710 recorded on Wednesday to N712 on Friday, while against the European it remained at N597, the same rate it traded in the last three days.

The Naira plunged against its global counterparts after the Central bank of Nigeria accused Bureau De Change Operators (BDCs) of illicit money flows and market manipulations that over time have sustained the unregulated black market section of forex.

Operators at the bureau de change section of forex had been accused of being the main source of forex for speculators and hoarders that manipulate forex rates at the unregulated black market, this the CBN plans to curb by cutting its weekly forex supply to BDCs but focus on servicing the economy through the banks.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
30/07/2021 508/515 705/712 590/597 70/75 410/420 305/330
29/07/2021 512/520 705/715 590/600 70/75 410/420 300/325
28/07/2021 515/525 700/710 590/600 63/70 410/420 300/320
27/07/2021 500/505 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
26/07/2021 500/504 695/703 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
23/07/2021 500/504 698/705 588/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
22/07/2021 498/503 695/703 585/590 62/69 407/415 300/320
19/07/2021 495/503 698/705 585/592 62/69 407/415 300/320
16/07/2021 502/506 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/315
15/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/596 62/69 407/415 300/320
14/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
13/07/2021 500/505 702/708 590/595 62/68 407/415 300/320
12/07/2021 500/505 700/708 590/595 62/69 407/415 300/320
09/07/2021 500/505 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/320
08/07/2021 499/503 700/708 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
07/07/2021 499/503 700/710 588/593 62/69 407/417 300/325
06/07/2021 499/503 698/710 590/595 62/69 407/417 300/325

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
30/07/2021 500/515 705/715 590/603
29/07/2021 510/525 705/715 590/602
28/07/2021 510/520 695/706 585/600
27/07/2021 490/500 690/700 580/595
26/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
23/07/2021 490/500 694/705 580/595
22/07/2021 490/500 690/705 580/595
19/07/2021 490/500 690/707 580/595
16/07/2021 490/500 700/710 585/600
15/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
14/07/2021 490/500 698/710 590/595
13/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
12/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
09/07/2021 490/500 698/710 585/600
08/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
07/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
06/07/2021 490/500 697/710 585/600
05/07/2021 490/500 700/714 585/600

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

N.B: These tables are updated three times a day.

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