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China Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs Show Improvement

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  • China Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs Show Improvement

Three separate activity surveys on Tuesday reinforced hopes of stabilization in the world’s second largest economy.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures large state-owned factories, came in at 51.2 for October, official data showed. That snapped two months of flat readings and beat market estimates; a Reuters poll of 26 analysts had forecast 50.4, unchanged from August and September.

Figures above the 50 level suggests expansionary activity while sub-50 levels indicate contraction.

Meanwhile, the Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in October, the fastest pace of improvement since March 2011. A rebound in new order growth amid stronger demand helped the gauge, Caixin said in a statement. The Caixin report focuses on mid-size companies not included in the official survey.

Manufacturing’s contribution to overall growth has been slipping over the years as Beijing transitions its economy from industry to consumption, accounting for around 40 percent of gross domestic product. Services, on the other hand, now makes up more than half of the economy and the sector, which includes real estate, restaurants, and e-commerce, has been on a steady upwards climb.

The government’s official services PMI rose to 54.0 in October, from 53.7 in September and 53.5 in August, a separate survey revealed on Tuesday.

All three data sets added to a rising sense of economic stabilization on the mainland. Annual growth remained steady at 6.7 percent in the second and third quarters, while September producer price prices increased for the first time in nearly five years.

“There’s no doubt that the Chinese economy has recovered quite well this year,” Jonathan Garner, managing director and chief Asia and emerging market equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

But the recovery itself is cause for concern as it was driven primarily by significant credit expansion, especially within property and infrastructure, he warned.

The country has experienced rapid gains in property prices this year, after the government introduced measures earlier this year aimed at boosting home sales and reducing developers’ large inventories. Fears of a market bubble, however, recently prompted officials to announce a flurry of cooling measures in more than 20 cities.

In a statement accompanying the Tuesday data, China’s statistics bureau said manufacturers still faced difficulties due to the weak global economic recovery.

Garner was also cautious. “What we have to figure out is where the economy is going in 2017, we expect the current strength to moderate by the middle of next year,” he said.

Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, thought likewise: “The economy seems to be stabilizing for the moment, owing primarily to policies implemented to sustain growth. Supportive policies must be continued, or industrial output may be dragged down by a slowdown in investment.”

Market reaction to all three reports was muted, with Shanghai and Hong Kong shares trading flat.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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