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Stocks Drop as Energy Firms Slide With Ruble After OPEC Impasse

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  • Stocks Drop as Energy Firms Slide With Ruble After OPEC Impasse

Energy shares led stocks in Europe lower, the Russia ruble weakened and oil touched a one-month low after the world’s biggest crude producers failed to agree to supply cuts at a meeting in Vienna. U.S. equity-index futures and Mexico’s peso clawed back some of their losses from Friday triggered by the FBI’s reopening of an inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s e-mails.

A gauge of energy companies on the MSCI All Country World Index slipped for a second day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ended two days of talks on Saturday without agreeing any individual quotas.

Russia’s ruble declined while the South African rand surged after prosecutors withdrew charges against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Perceived investment-grade credit risk was set for the longest run of increases since May.

The OPEC talks yielded little more than a promise that the world’s top oil producers would keep discussing ways to stabilize the market. Sovereign bonds were relatively muted Monday as investors awaited key central bank meetings from the U.K. and U.S. later in the week. Global equities lost ground in October and government bonds also slid amid speculation the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year.

“Oil companies are reacting to OPEC news,” said William Hobbs, head of investment strategy at Barclays Plc’s wealth-management unit in London. “We have a huge week of data, biggest in a long time. So people are positioning for what’s expected to be a pretty important week.”

Stocks

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.5 percent as of 7:19 a.m New York time, set for a sixth day of declines, the longest losing streak since February. The benchmark has fallen 1.1 percent in October, a month that has yielded gains in five of the past six years.

BP Plc and Tullow Oil Plc fell more than 1 percent, dragging a measure of energy companies to the worst performance of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600, as oil declined after European markets closed Friday.
Miners gained the most on the index as metals prices advanced. Centamin Plc led the charge after saying it sees gold output near the upper end of its 2016 forecast.

WPP Plc led media companies higher, rising 4.1 percent after the world’s largest advertising company posted an increase in quarterly sales. Sika AG jumped 14 percent after a Swiss court backed its bid to block a takeover by Cie de Saint-Gobain. Shares in its French rival dropped 0.8 percent.

S&P 500 Index slid 20 points in about 40 minutes on Friday amid news the Federal Bureau of Investigation was again looking into Clinton’s use of private e-mail while secretary of state, an issue that has dogged her presidential campaign.

Futures on the gauge advanced 0.1 percent, indicating equities will rebound from Friday’s retreat to a six-week low. Investors will look to data Monday on personal income and spending for indications of the health of the U.S. economy as the Federal Reserve prepares to meet.

Among stocks moving in premarket New York trading, Baker Hughes Inc. gained 9.1 percent after General Electric Co. agreed to combine their oil and gas businesses to bolster their operations amid the global slump in crude prices. General Electric added 0.3 percent. Level 3 Communications Inc. climbed 3.9 percent after agreeing to a $34 billion cash-and-stock takeover offer from CenturyLink Inc.

For more news on the latest probe into Clinton’s e-mails, click here.

Commodities

Crude oil fell 0.6 percent to $48.40 a barrel in New York, trading near the lowest since the end of September. Oil has fluctuated near $50 amid skepticism about whether OPEC can implement the first supply cuts in eight years at an official meeting in November.

“Talks over the weekend make it seem less likely there will be an agreement on production cuts,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “The market has probably made a fair bit of the adjustment, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see oil fall further into the $47 range.”
Gold was little changed at about $1,274.13 an ounce after rallying 0.6 percent on Friday.

Aluminum and zinc extended gains in Shanghai as investors bet that strong domestic demand, surging coal prices and logistical issues will underpin prices. Aluminum rose to its highest since September 2014, having jumped by about 10 percent last week, and zinc climbed to levels last seen in March 2011.

Currencies

The rand jumped 1.8 percent as South Africa’s Chief Prosecutor Shaun Abrahams announced that fraud charges against the finance minister have been dropped, two days before he was due to appear in court.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has climbed more than 2 percent this month, set for the biggest gain since May.

While the Fed is seen leaving policy unchanged at a review this week, futures prices indicate a 69 percent chance of an interest-rate hike at its December meeting, up from 59 percent at the end of September.

The ruble fell 0.2 percent, declining for a second day and set for its first monthly drop in three.

Mexico’s peso advanced 0.4 percent as Clinton’s allies escalated attacks on FBI Director James Comey to stem political damage from his disclosure last week the agency is reviewing files related to a probe of her e-mail practices.

South Korea’s won traded near a three-month low as President Park Geun-hye deals with an influence-peddling scandal that’s sparked calls by the ruling party for her to remove the prime minister. Prosecutors raided Park’s office over the weekend to investigate allegations her close friend Choi Soon-sil — a private citizen whom opposition lawmakers have linked to a religious cult — wielded influence on state affairs over an extended period.

China’s yuan strengthened 0.2 percent, paring its biggest monthly loss since May. It advanced from near a six-year low following Friday’s retreat in the dollar and as China’s clampdown on UnionPay payments for insurance products in Hong Kong provided support. The transactions have been used as a means of skirting capital controls to take funds out of the mainland.

Bonds

The yield on Treasuries due in a decade was little changed at 1.84 percent, after touching a five-month high of 1.88 percent on Friday. Sovereign debt in the world’s biggest economy has lost 1.2 percent on average this month, the worst performance since February 2015, a Bloomberg index shows.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield was at 0.16 percent, up 28 basis points this month, which would be the biggest increase since May 2013.

Spanish 10-year bond yields were little changed at 1.23 percent, after Mariano Rajoy claimed a second term as prime minister by winning a confidence vote on Saturday night, ending a 10-month political impasse.

The cost of insuring investment-grade corporate bonds against default climbed for a fifth day. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps on highly rated companies rose one basis point to 73 basis points, a two-week high. A gauge of swaps on junk-rated corporate issuers rose for a fifth day, the longest run since June. It added three basis points to 332 basis points.

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps rose five basis points to an 18-month high of 2.76 percent in Shanghai. The increase reflects speculation policy makers will seek to keep money rates high as they tackle asset bubbles and try to stem declines in the yuan.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Commodities

Cocoa Fever Sweeps Market: Prices Set to Break $15,000 per Ton Barrier

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Cocoa

The cocoa market is experiencing an unprecedented surge with prices poised to shatter the $15,000 per ton barrier.

The cocoa industry, already reeling from supply shortages and production declines in key regions, is now facing a frenzy of speculative trading and bullish forecasts.

At the recent World Cocoa Conference in Brussels, nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed unanimous confidence in the continuation of the cocoa rally.

According to their predictions, New York futures could trade above $15,000 a ton before the year’s end, marking yet another milestone in the relentless ascent of cocoa prices.

The surge in cocoa prices has been fueled by a perfect storm of factors, including production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers.

Shortages of cocoa beans have left buyers scrambling for supplies and willing to pay exorbitant premiums, exacerbating the market tightness.

To cope with the supply crunch, Ivory Coast and Ghana have resorted to rolling over contracts totaling around 400,000 tons of cocoa, further exacerbating the scarcity.

Traders are increasingly turning to cocoa stocks held in exchanges in London and New York, despite concerns about their quality, as the shortage of high-quality beans intensifies.

Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra, noted that quality considerations have taken a backseat for most processors amid the supply crunch, leading them to accept cocoa from exchanges despite its perceived inferiority.

This shift in dynamics is expected to further deplete stocks and provide additional support to cocoa prices.

The cocoa rally has already seen prices surge by about 160% this year, nearing the $12,000 per ton mark in New York.

This meteoric rise has put significant pressure on traders and chocolate makers, who are grappling with rising margin calls and higher bean prices in the physical market.

Despite the challenges posed by soaring cocoa prices, stakeholders across the value chain have demonstrated a willingness to absorb the cost increases.

Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships, noted that the market has been able to pass on price increases from chocolate makers to consumers, highlighting the resilience of the cocoa industry.

However, concerns linger about the eventual impact of the price surge on consumers, with some chocolate makers still covered for supplies.

According to Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services, the full effects of the price increase may take six months to a year to materialize, posing a potential future challenge for consumers.

As the cocoa market continues to navigate uncharted territory all eyes remain on the unfolding developments, with traders, analysts, and industry stakeholders bracing for further volatility and potential record-breaking price levels in the days ahead.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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