Forex

Draghi Signals ECB Unlikely to Stop QE Plan Without Tapering

Published

8 years ago

October 21, 2016

Mario Draghi signaled the European Central Bank probably won’t stop its quantitative-easing program without tapering it first, indicating that the stimulus is likely to run past the currently scheduled end-date of March 2017.

“An abrupt ending to bond purchases, I think, is unlikely,” the ECB president said in a press conference in Frankfurt on Thursday. A sudden stop “is not present in anybody’s mind.”

The comments keep the central bank on track for a potential extension of its bond-buying program, as predicted by economists. Draghi said the Governing Council didn’t discuss prolonging or tapering in this policy meeting, while noting that the publication of fresh economic forecasts in December, as well as the results of internal studies on options to avoid running into bond shortages, will help the decision then.

“Everyone expects him to do more but it’s hard, given what he said today, to be sure in any way of what they are going to do in December,” said Richard Barwell, an economist at BNP Paribas Investment Partners in London. “There is this constant angst now of ‘will they, won’t they?’ They would be in a much better place if they described what is their plan given current conditions.”

Inflation Path

Bloomberg News reported this month that ECB policy makers have built an informal consensus that QE will be gradually wound down once the decision is taken to end the program.

Earlier on Thursday, the 25-member Governing Council reaffirmed that asset purchases will continue to run at the pace of 80 billion euros ($88 billion) per month until March 2017, and in any case until policy makers see a sustained pick-up in inflation toward its goal of just under 2 percent. Officials left the main refinancing rate unchanged at zero and the deposit rate at minus 0.4 percent.

The euro initially climbed as much as 0.6 percent before giving up those gains. The single currency traded down 0.5 percent at $1.0921 at 5:17 p.m. Frankfurt time, near the weakest since June. Euro-area bond yields also rose before heading lower.

“He really wanted to shut down any suggestion that the ECB is going to taper any time soon, but what he actually did was to tell people to come back in December and see what the ECB thinks then,” said James Athey, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London. “That will leave enough unanswered questions to keep bond markets volatile. An already nervous market will not take much comfort from his obfuscation today.”

Draghi noted that there is no “convincing upward trend” in underlying inflation, adding that “we want a convergence which is self sustained, without the extraordinary policy support in place now.”

He said earlier this month that consumer-price growth will probably be near the target by late 2018 or early 2019. The ECB’s current projections, which see inflation at 1.6 percent in 2018, are built on expectations of “additional monetary policy measures,” according to an account of last month’s council meeting.

The ECB’s committees are currently reviewing their options for tweaking the rules of the QE program to allay concerns that it will run out of bonds to buy. Draghi said the Governing Council took stock of that work and that it wants “to see all inputs for this discussion” before taking a decision.
Click here to watch Draghi’s news conference in full.

The euro area faces a “moderate, steady recovery, and a gradual rise in inflation in line with previous expectations” but with risks to the downside, he said. “We remain committed to preserving a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation.”

Up Next

Canadian Dollar Falls to 7-Month Low as Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline

Don't Miss

Dollar Scarcity: Demand Overwhelms Travelex

Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Comments

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

5 hours ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,260
Selling Rate: N1,250

Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.