Connect with us

Forex

Draghi Signals ECB Unlikely to Stop QE Plan Without Tapering

Published

on

Mario Draghi

Mario Draghi signaled the European Central Bank probably won’t stop its quantitative-easing program without tapering it first, indicating that the stimulus is likely to run past the currently scheduled end-date of March 2017.

“An abrupt ending to bond purchases, I think, is unlikely,” the ECB president said in a press conference in Frankfurt on Thursday. A sudden stop “is not present in anybody’s mind.”

The comments keep the central bank on track for a potential extension of its bond-buying program, as predicted by economists. Draghi said the Governing Council didn’t discuss prolonging or tapering in this policy meeting, while noting that the publication of fresh economic forecasts in December, as well as the results of internal studies on options to avoid running into bond shortages, will help the decision then.

“Everyone expects him to do more but it’s hard, given what he said today, to be sure in any way of what they are going to do in December,” said Richard Barwell, an economist at BNP Paribas Investment Partners in London. “There is this constant angst now of ‘will they, won’t they?’ They would be in a much better place if they described what is their plan given current conditions.”

Inflation Path

Bloomberg News reported this month that ECB policy makers have built an informal consensus that QE will be gradually wound down once the decision is taken to end the program.

Earlier on Thursday, the 25-member Governing Council reaffirmed that asset purchases will continue to run at the pace of 80 billion euros ($88 billion) per month until March 2017, and in any case until policy makers see a sustained pick-up in inflation toward its goal of just under 2 percent. Officials left the main refinancing rate unchanged at zero and the deposit rate at minus 0.4 percent.

The euro initially climbed as much as 0.6 percent before giving up those gains. The single currency traded down 0.5 percent at $1.0921 at 5:17 p.m. Frankfurt time, near the weakest since June. Euro-area bond yields also rose before heading lower.

“He really wanted to shut down any suggestion that the ECB is going to taper any time soon, but what he actually did was to tell people to come back in December and see what the ECB thinks then,” said James Athey, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London. “That will leave enough unanswered questions to keep bond markets volatile. An already nervous market will not take much comfort from his obfuscation today.”

Draghi noted that there is no “convincing upward trend” in underlying inflation, adding that “we want a convergence which is self sustained, without the extraordinary policy support in place now.”

He said earlier this month that consumer-price growth will probably be near the target by late 2018 or early 2019. The ECB’s current projections, which see inflation at 1.6 percent in 2018, are built on expectations of “additional monetary policy measures,” according to an account of last month’s council meeting.

The ECB’s committees are currently reviewing their options for tweaking the rules of the QE program to allay concerns that it will run out of bonds to buy. Draghi said the Governing Council took stock of that work and that it wants “to see all inputs for this discussion” before taking a decision.
Click here to watch Draghi’s news conference in full.

The euro area faces a “moderate, steady recovery, and a gradual rise in inflation in line with previous expectations” but with risks to the downside, he said. “We remain committed to preserving a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 13th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,490.

Published

on

NAIRA - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,490.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,480 and sold it at ₦1,470 on Wednesday, June 12th, 2024.

This indicates a slight decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,490
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,480

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Continue Reading

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 12th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 12th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Published

on

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 12th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,500 and sold it at ₦1,490 on Thursday, June 6th, 2024.

This indicates an improvement in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,480
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,470

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Continue Reading

Forex

Cedi Falls to Record Low Due to Increased Dollar Demand from Importers

Published

on

inflation

The Ghanaian cedi has plummeted to a record low of 14.9335 per dollar as the increase in demand for US dollars by companies importing fuel, pharmaceuticals, and other fast-moving consumer goods put pressure on the currency.

This depreciation, observed by the close of trading in Accra, marks the cedi’s lowest level since at least 1994 when Bloomberg began tracking the data.

Since the start of the year, the cedi has declined by 20% against the US dollar, ranking it as the fourth-worst performing currency among approximately 150 tracked globally by Bloomberg, following the Egyptian pound, Nigerian naira, and Lebanese pound.

“Dollar demand from oil importers, the pharmaceuticals industry, and FMCG companies remains strong,” noted Samantha Singh-Jami, Africa Strategist at Rand Merchant Bank. “Although authorities have significantly increased foreign exchange reserves in recent months, there are still constraints on foreign exchange liquidity in the market.”

Ghana’s gross international reserves rose to $6.6 billion in April, the highest in over 19 months, as per data compiled by Bloomberg.

The central bank has been strategically managing these reserves to ensure sufficient market supply, including directly addressing some companies’ foreign exchange needs to alleviate the pressure on commercial banks.

This increase in reserves follows Ghana’s decision to halt servicing most of its external debt since December 2022.

The move was part of a debt restructuring effort to qualify for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Disbursements from the $3 billion IMF package and inflows from other multilateral and bilateral sources have bolstered the reserves.

However, the cedi’s decline is also attributed to a significant drop in cocoa export revenue, which has diminished foreign exchange supply. Revenue from cocoa shipments fell by 49% to $599 million from January through April.

The country’s cocoa output for the 2023-24 season is projected to be between 422,500 and 425,000 tons, which is only half of the initial estimate.

“The weakening of the cedi seems to reflect foreign exchange flow mismatches,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. “Foreign exchange demand recovered this year, though it has remained broadly constant in recent months, and continues to exceed supply.”

The combination of high demand for dollars by importers and reduced foreign exchange inflows has created a challenging environment for the cedi.

Despite efforts by the central bank to manage the situation, the currency continues to struggle under the weight of these economic pressures.

Economic Outlook

The Ghanaian government and central bank face a tough task in stabilizing the cedi amidst these challenges.

Ensuring adequate foreign exchange liquidity while addressing the structural issues in the economy, such as reliance on imports and fluctuating export revenues, will be crucial in reversing the cedi’s downward trend.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending