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Nigeria’s Refineries More of Liabilities than Assets

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refineries
  • Nigeria’s Refineries More of Liabilities than Assets

An energy expert, Mr. Dan Kunle has said that Nigeria’s three refineries in Port Harcourt, Kaduna and Warri are more of liabilities than assets, thus questioning the government’s continued insistence on holding on to them.

Kunle, who spoke on the background of recent debates generated from suggestions by Aliko Dangote and some others that the federal government should consider selling its stakes in some national assets to raise money to reflate the country’s economy, said that the three refineries have remained unprofitable and drainpipes on the country’s finances.

He explained that a continued politicisation of the sale of the refineries was not in the interest of the country, adding that their values would continue to decline for as long as they are left operating below par.

According to Kunle, “The more you politicise the privatisation of the three or four refineries, the more those refineries are technically going obsolete and into decadence that no credible investor will come near them anymore.”

“In fact, they become worthless because they have become technically insolvent. When you have assets that have become technically insolvent, it means, if you want to buy it you are buying liability because all the equipment you are supposed to produce with are obsolete.

“They have decayed, corrosion has taken place. That means you are going to invest money in building a new refinery. So, why will an investor come and take such a technically liable refinery,” Kunle added.

He said beyond the technical insolvency, the refineries are also socially insolvent, insisting that any investor who takes them up will have loads of labour and social issues to deal with.

“The labour problem you are going to have in the refineries, unless government insulates you away from all these labour issues, and take away all the staff and pay them. These social problems include the community you are going to interface with, because you need their social license to operate there,” he added.

Speaking then on the debate about the suggestions made by Dangote, he said: “All these noise that people are making, if you get down to the details, you will see that there is no refinery selling. They are all technically insolvent.

“Take the case of NITEL, there was no equipment there. The buyer of NITEL only bought the spectrum more or less and may be some old buildings that were harbouring those base stations.”

“When Nigerians are sentimentally attached to all these things, I sympathise with them because of one reason – they feel they have been short-changed. There are certain things that must be explained in the right perspective to the people but we mix up things, we jaundice information,” he said.

“If the labour wakes up and say don’t sell our patrimony, your children and everybody is going into more deficit by keeping that asset. We could not run Nigerian Airways. Government in this part of the world and anywhere in the world is not meant to run businesses.

“Aliko Dangote is building a refinery that is going to produce near sufficiency of petroleum products to the market. Anybody who decides to buy the three existing refineries will have to invest money to upgrade the refineries to a standard that can produce up to 70 and 80 per cent of installed capacity.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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