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Deutsche Bank Slips Below 10 Euros

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For the first time ever, Deutsche Bank AG’s share price dipped below 10 euros. Traders are preparing for it to fall even lower.

The most-owned bearish option on the German lender is a put with an exercise price of 8 euros. While investors started piling into the position in June, the fact that it’s so popular shows they’re seeking to hedge for further declines. The stock sank as much as 9 percent to 9.90 euros intraday, before paring its slide.

Trading in Deutsche Bank options has surged this month as the lender fell to a fresh record low on growing concerns about its ability to withstand mounting legal costs. Put volume reached a seven-year high on Monday, while the number of outstanding contracts on the firm has climbed to its highest ever.

“A very psychological barrier has been breached,” said Michael Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets in London. “For a bank such as Deutsche Bank, whose share price in 2008 was light years away from being a single digit stock, to become a single-digit stock — it changes people’s perceptions. If it can drop through 10 euros, then what’s the next target? For Deutsche Bank’s share price to go towards 8 euros — I think that’s perfectly feasible.”

Since their peak in May 2007, Deutsche Bank shares have tumbled 90 percent. More than 83,000 of the 8-euro put that’s the most owned exist, up from about 32,000 in June. The open interest on the contract, which expires in December of next year, has climbed 14 percent since Sept. 6.

On Friday, Deutsche Bank options were among the most traded on Deutsche Boerse AG’s Eurex exchange. June puts with a 10 euro strike and 7.60 euro puts expiring in March were the bearish contracts on the stock that changed hands the most. A 10,000 block of the March options changed hands at the same time as an equal number of March 12.50 euro calls, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Deutsche Bank spokesman Don Hunter declined to comment on the stock and options trading.

In the latest turn of events, about 10 hedge funds that do business with Deutsche Bank have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms. Chief Executive Officer John Cryan’s reassurances that the lender has never had as safe a balance sheet in the past two decades wasn’t enough to stop the decline in shares.

As the stock tumbled and investors piled into options, bond traders also increased hedging. The cost of insuring the company’s subordinated debt reached a record this week, while that of credit-default swaps on its senior hit the highest since February, before paring their advance.

Deutsche Bank’s woes have spilled over to the rest of the industry, with a gauge tracking lenders for the region heading for its lowest level since Aug. 22. Commerzbank AG, which said on Thursday it will cut jobs and suspend dividends, dropped 6.1 percent.

As of 1:05 p.m. in Frankfurt, Deutsche Bank shares traded at 10.37 euros, down 4.6 percent.

“If it doesn’t close back above 10 euros today, I would be concerned that we could fall quite a bit lower,” Hewson said.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Petrol

NNPC, Dangote Deal Halts Direct Lifting of Petrol Despite FG’s Directive, IPMAN Reveals After Meeting With Dangote

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The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has revealed that despite the directive of the Federal Government that they can purchase petrol directly from Dangote Refinery, an existing agreement binding the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the refinery, has halted lifting of the product.

This was made known on Wednesday, in a notice to IPMAN members in the Western Zone, issued by the Zonal Chairman, South-West, Dele Tajudeen, after a meeting with top officials of Dangote Refinery on Tuesday.

Investors King reported that on October 11, the Federal Government announced that all petroleum marketers can now negotiate and buy products directly from the Dangote Refinery, Lagos.

A statement by the Ministry of Finance indicated that the decision to allow oil marketers to deal directly with the refinery firm was reached at a meeting of the technical committee headed by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun.

The leeway given by the Federal Government has ended the arrangement in which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) was acting as the sole off-taker of the Dangote Refinery products.

However, after the meeting between the two bodies, IPMAN revealed that the NNPC is still the sole off-taker of petrol from the Dangote Refinery.

According to the marketers, there is an existing agreement between NNPC and Dangote Refinery, and until the expiration of the said agreement, NNPC will remain the sole off-taker of the product from the refinery.

Sadly, IPMAN revealed that the date of the termination of that agreement is kept a secret by the NNPC and the refinery.

IPMAN said, “The IPMAN National Vice President, Zonal Chairman of Western Zone, IPMAN members, and PTD Zonal Chairman met with the Vice President of Dangote Group and many other notable staff members of the Dangote refinery yesterday, October 15, 2024.

“We had a very useful and fruitful discussion on the direct purchase of products from the Dangote refinery.  The Vice President of Dangote confirmed that the Minister of Finance/ Coordinating Minister of the Economy, and the Minister of Petroleum Resources have directed them to commence sales of products to marketers who have duly registered with the refinery, but they are still having a pending agreement with NNPC Ltd which still subsist.

“Until and when the agreement is terminated by either party, the direct sales will still be on hold.”

Meanwhile, IPMAN called on oil marketers who are yet to officially register with the association to do so as fast as possible as only registered members will benefit from the direct lifting of the product.

The statement added, “In view of this, marketers who are yet to officially register as IPMAN members should do so without wasting time as such marketers will not benefit from this opportunity when we eventually commence lifting from the Dangote refinery.”

Before now, IPMAN had accused Dangote Refinery of snubbing them on their demand to directly lift its petrol.

They hinted that the development is a setback on their efforts at making fuel sell cheaper across filling stations in the country.

The President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abubakar Maigandi and the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association, PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry assured that if they are allowed to directly lift petrol from Dangote Refinery, it would make the product sell lesser.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Down Marginally on Ease in Supply Worries

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The prices of crude oil fell marginally on Wednesday over less oil demand growth and reduced concerns that Middle East conflicts will disrupt supply.

Investors King reports that Brent crude fell 3 cents to trade at $74.22 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 19 cents or 0.3 percent to trade at $70.39.

Prices had fallen at the beginning of the week in response to a weaker demand outlook and a report that Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear and oil sites.

The news has eased fears of supply disruptions in Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which produces about 4.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2023.

Iran was on track to export around 1.5 million bpd in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in 2023.

A disruption could send prices higher but after intervention from the US President Joe Biden, Israel may not consider the approach anymore.

Support also came from the US and Europe, but could not sway the market in its favour.

Data out of Europe showed that there were signs of positive growth that could see the European Central Bank (ECB) ease interest rates, even if the numbers were not as strong as analysts expected.

Lower interest rates make it possible for demand to improve.

Meanwhile, in the US, import data showed that prices fell by the most in nine months as of September, a sign that the US Federal Reserve may keep cutting interest rates.

OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) this week cut their 2024 global oil demand growth forecasts, with China accounting for the considerable part of the downgrades.

The IEA forecast global oil demand would peak before 2030 at less than 102 million bpd and then fall to 99 million bpd by 2035.

For China, the market wasn’t too optimistic after the government announced billions of bonds to support the country’s economy.

 

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Energy

FG to Import 1.3 Million Meters to Tackle Fraudulent Estimated Billing, Says Power Minister

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government has announced plans to import 1.3 million meters as part of a broader strategy to end estimated billing in the country which it described as fraudulent.

The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, who disclosed this on Tuesday during the ongoing Nigeria Energy Summit in Lagos, said the metering gap is a big elephant that demands the collective efforts of Nigerians to tackle.

The Minister questioned the transparency of estimated billing and declared it unacceptable.

Minister Adelabu reaffirmed the role of the newly launched presidential metering initiative in addressing the metering gap.

He confirmed that through the initiative with support from the World Bank, a total of 1.3 million meters have been procured and paid for.

According to him, delivery of these meters will be in batches with the first to be delivered in December.

“We have over 13 million customers, but just a little over 5 million are. Where is it done that over seven million customers will rely on estimated billing? It is fraudulent, it is not transparent, and it can never be acceptable in a sane country. But we cannot close this gap in one year.

“We are talking of over seven million meters to be imported, to be produced locally. The meter gap is a big elephant we must all join hands to fight and bring down.

“To address this, we launched the presidential metering initiative together with the Nigeria Governors Forum, and state governments are now part of this, supported by the World Bank Distribution Sector Reform Programme aimed to disburse 3.2 million meters, out of which I can confirm to you authoritatively that 1.3 million meters have been procured, contract signed and the payment made.

“We are expecting the first set of the meters to be delivered by December 2024, and the balance will be delivered by the second quarter of next year.

“And you will see the readiness of Nigerians to pay if you can display transparency and fairness in your billing. They are ready to pay. They know that the alternative sources are far more expensive, even apart from the societal environmental pollution of noise,” he noted.

Furthermore, Adelabu noted that the government is fully committed to implementing the integrated national electricity policy.

According to him, “As we look into the future, our focus remains on fully implementing the integrated national electricity policy. I will want you to get a copy of this policy. It’s available as a soft copy; we have sent it to all the major stakeholders in the industry. Please go through it.

“You can read through the executive summary for you to even know the content of this policy. It covers so many things, including local content, competency, and human capacity development in the industry, which is lacking.

“We don’t have enough pool of resources for what we are envisaging for this sector, but we must start building it from today. It covers everything, and when you add areas you want to put our attention to, please, let us do this within the next four weeks before we go to the Federal Executive Council.

“Once it is approved, it will be tough for us to make changes. It will be our guide to further transform the sector. So, with the 2023 Electricity Act, providing the ledger framework and the regulator setting the strategic direction, Nigeria is well-positioned to overcome the challenges that have historically plagued the electricity sector.”

“The next steps will involve continued investment in infrastructure upgrades, capacity building of local stakeholders, and strengthening regulatory enforcement to ensure that the gains we have made are positively sustained,” he concluded.

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