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BOJ Flags Smallest Long Bond Buys Since ’14 to Control Curve

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BOJ

Investors hoping the Bank of Japan would provide clues on how it plans to control yields in a monthly statement Friday were not disappointed.

The central bank reduced its target for purchases of debt maturing in more than 10 years to a range of about 200 billion to 400 billion yen ($2 billion to $4 billion) per auction in October from about 300 billion to 400 billion yen for the previous month. Based on its plan to buy 410 billion yen at the first auction next month, that would be the least since expanding asset purchases two years ago, based on calculations that assume the same purchase amount at each operation.

“The announcement shows the BOJ’s intention to steepen the yield curve,” said Kazuhiko Ogata, chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole SA in Tokyo. “The long end of the curve may see some selling pressure, but the impact on JGBs and the yen will probably be limited because the numbers came in within the expected range.”

The BOJ said in its Sept. 21 policy statement it is now targeting the yield curve, but only specified two points: the deposit rate at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year yield “around zero percent.” That shone a spotlight on Friday evening’s statement in the hope that more on the desired curve shape could be gleaned from the central bank’s actual purchases.

The bank also lowered the target for five- to 10-year securities to 290 billion to 530 billion yen, from 300 billion to 600 billion previously. It left the frequency of its operations at 8 to 10 times per month, with an overall target to buy 8 trillion to 12 trillion yen.

Too Low?

The BOJ gave a clue to its intentions earlier Friday, when it bought 410 billion yen of five- to 10-year securities, instead of the 430 billion yen indicated in its statement for September. It was the first time in six months the central bank had reduced buying before releasing its monthly plan, and spurred speculation the benchmark yield might be getting too low for Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s comfort.

“The BOJ may have reduced purchases in order to stem the decline in 10-year yields, which were approaching minus 0.1 percent,” Hiroki Tsuji, a Tokyo-based market analyst at Mizuho Securities Co. said before the announcement. “It’s likely to strengthen the market’s perception that minus 0.1 percent is the lower bound of what the BOJ will tolerate.”

The benchmark 10-year yield fell as low as minus 0.09 percent this week for the first time in a month. It was at minus 0.085 percent when markets closed on Friday in Tokyo, unchanged since the release of the statement. The yield rose above zero for the first time since March on Sept. 21.

The gap between yields on two- and 30-year debt — a measure of the steepness of the curve — is near the same level as it was at the time of the policy meeting at around 72 1/2 basis points, after compressing to as little as 66 basis points in the interim.

Uncharted Territory

Kuroda’s targets for the yield curve take Japan’s monetary policy further into uncharted territory as he struggles to stoke inflation. It also spurred calls for clarity on how he plans to implement the changes, as well as prompting speculation the BOJ may be laying the groundwork for a reduction in its 80 trillion yen a year in bond purchases.

The bank said last week it would adjust the volume of its asset buying as necessary in the short term to control bond yields, while keeping them at about 80 trillion yen annually over the long term. The central bank has had a target to buy 8 trillion yen to 12 trillion yen in government bonds from the market each month. The BOJ owned 36 percent of outstanding JGBs at the end of June.

A summary of opinions from the central bank’s meeting released Friday morning in Tokyo showed policy makers don’t intend to peg 10-year yields at zero for long in the future, and they will examine an appropriate shape for the yield curve at each gathering.

“Nobody knows what the ideal shape for the yield curve is,” said Makoto Suzuki, senior bond strategist at Okasan Securities Group Inc. in Tokyo.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

NLC Describes President Tinubu’s Involvement In Dangote Refinery Petrol Pricing As ‘Fraud’

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Joe Ajaero

The President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Joe Ajaero, has described the involvement of the President Bola Tinubu-led government in deciding the price of petrol produced by Dangote Refinery as fraud.

Ajaero spoke during a media briefing at the Murtala Muhammed Airport in Lagos on Wednesday.

According to him, the inconsistencies in policies and fraudulent actions of the Tinubu-led administration are the cause of the ongoing conflict between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and Dangote Refinery.

The NLC President criticised the current administration for attempting to interfere with the operations of private entities like Dangote.

He countered the government’s attempt to dictate the price of petrol produced by Dangote, describing it as fraudulent.

Ajaero said: “In a truly deregulated market, there should be no interference in how private sector entities like Dangote operate. Imposing restrictions or dictating prices goes against the principles of a free market.

“For a locally produced product, with no reliance on imported dollars or landing costs, they’re demanding he sells it at the same price as the imported ones. That’s both fraudulent and unacceptable.

“What you’re witnessing is a mix of fraud and policy inconsistency. Nigerians were led to believe that the sector had been deregulated, and in a deregulated market, competition and choice should prevail. So why is there now an attempt to control how much Dangote should sell his product for?

“When the Port Harcourt refinery becomes operational, both NNPC and Dangote should be able to sell freely. But trying to dictate Dangote’s pricing is dishonest.

“This is the time for Nigerians to speak out. We were told that deregulation would put the private sector in charge and limit government interference in business. Now, the government is trying to regulate how private businesses should price their products.

“They expect him to sell at the same price as the imported product, even though it was produced locally without the additional landing costs. That’s outright fraud.”

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Gain Amid U.S. Production Woes and Rate Cut Expectations

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Crude gained on Tuesday following Hurricane Francine disruption in the U.S. and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the U.S.

These two factors have boosted traders’ sentiment in the oil market despite concerns about global demand and slowing growth in China.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 36 cents, or 0.5% to $73.11 per barrel while the U.S. crude oil gained 53 cents, or 0.8% to settle $70.62 per barrel.

Both closed higher in the previous trading session as the market reacted to the impact of Hurricane Francine on U.S. Gulf Coast production.

More than 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline as of Monday, according to the U.S.

According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), the disruption has raised concerns over short-term supply shortages and contribution to the upward momentum in prices.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG said “while the market is seeing near-term stabilization, the fragile state of China’s economy and anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could limit further gains.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a rate cut later this week, with futures markets pricing in a 69% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction.

Lower interest rates are favourable for oil prices as they reduce borrowing costs and encourage economic growth.

“Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut are lifting sentiment across the commodities sector”, stated ANZ analysts.

The market, however, remains cautious due to lower-than-expected demand from China, the world’s largest importer of the commodity.

Chinese data released over the weekend showed that China’s oil refinery output dropped for the fifth consecutive month in August. This signals weaker domestic demand and declining export margins.

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Crude Oil

New Petrol Prices to Range Between N857 and N865 Following NNPC-Dangote Deal

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Petrol

Hopes for cheaper Premium Motor Spirit (PM), otherwise known as petrol, rose, last night, as indications emerged that the product may sell for between N857 and N865 per litre after the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) starts lifting the product from Dangote Refinery today.

It was learnt that the NNPCL, as the sole off-taker of petrol from the refinery, is projected to lift the product at N960/N980 per litre and sell to marketers at N840/N850 to enable Nigerians to get it at between N857 and N865 at the pump at filling stations.

However, whether uniform product prices would apply at filling stations nationwide was unclear.

As of yesterday, petrol sold at N855 per litre at NNPCL retail stations in Lagos and it was the cheapest anyone could buy the product while major marketers sold around N920.

At independent marketers’ outlets, the price was over N1,000. Elsewhere across the country, PMS sold for more than N1,200 per litre.

Sources said the new arrangement from the NNPCL and Dangote Refinery negotiations, spanning more than one week, would allow Nigerians to get petrol at between N857 and N865 per litre and represents an average under-recovery of about N130 to NNPCL.

President Bola Tinubu, Sunday Vanguard was made to understand by a Presidency source, made it clear to the negotiating parties that “the price at which petrol would be sold to Nigerians should not be such that would place heavy financial burden on them while dealing with the new reality of the prevailing price”.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has, meanwhile, expressed optimism that the deal would reduce the pressure on foreign exchange (FX) demands and shore up the value of the Naira – presently, between 30% and 40% of FX demands go into the importation of PMS.

Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd., Olufemi Soneye, who confirmed the readiness of the company to start lifting petrol today, told Sunday Vanguard, yesterday: “NNPC Ltd has started deploying our trucks and vessels to the Dangote Refinery to lift PMS in preparation for the scheduled lifting date of September 15th, as set by the refinery.

“Our trucks and personnel are already on-site, ready to begin lifting. We expect more trucks, and the deployment will continue throughout the weekend so we can start loading as soon as the refinery begins operations on September 15, 2024.”

Soneye hinted that at least 100 trucks had already arrived at the refinery for the petrol lifting, adding that the number of trucks could increase to 300 by Saturday evening.

On his part, Executive Secretary, of Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Olufemi Adewole, said: “We have been lifting diesel (AGO) and aviation fuel (jet fuel) and we look forward to lifting petrol (PMS).”

On pricing, he said: “We await clarity in respect of the pricing mode, and once that is clarified, we’ll do the needful towards meeting the energy needs of Nigerians.”

Yesterday, Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy said the structuring of the NNPCL, Dangote Refinery deal in Naira would assist in reducing pressure on the local currency.

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