The Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital, Mr. Charles Robertson, says Nigeria is losing at least $8bn in tourism receipts.
Robertson, who stated this in an emailed note on Wednesday, stressed the need for improvements in airport quality and visa policy.
He said, “Why is Ghana 25 times more successful than Nigeria in attracting tourism revenues? Indeed, why is Nigeria the second least successful African country in attracting tourism receipts out of the 43 we have data for (only the DRC is worse)?
According to him, patriotic countries like Turkey and Croatia do not jeopardise the economic benefits of tourism by insisting on visa reciprocity.
Robertson said, “We argue that deterring tourists is an economic mistake, especially when the EM or frontier economies are weak. Countries like Russia and Nigeria could do with the diversification that tourism might provide.”
He said during tough times, Spain and Greece had seen tourism revenues rise substantially as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product in recent years, adding, “Many EM and frontier countries have not despite weak currencies and low jet fuel costs.
“We think Russia is missing out on at least $6bn of tourism receipts, while Nigeria is missing $8bn if only it could boost tourism receipts to Ghana’s equivalent level (and any improvement on the current $0.5bn in travel receipts would be welcome given currency shortages in Nigeria.”
He said countries like Cambodia, Georgia and Laos had seen huge increases in tourism revenues over the past 10 to 20 years due in part to open visa regime policies.
“He added, “We think frontier markets like Pakistan and Nigeria could see strong tourism growth in the coming years from an extremely low base, much as Cape Verde and Laos have done in the past 20 years.
“When we look at net tourism receipts (spending abroad by your citizens, minus spending in your country by foreign tourists), we can see which frontier countries are doing best (Croatia, Jordan, Mauritius, Morocco) and which are doing worst (including Nigeria, Pakistan and Romania).”
According to the RenCap economist, Russia will boost its GDP and current account receipts if it bring forward its 2018 plan to introduce temporary visa-free travel for the World Cup (and made this permanent)
He added, “Nigeria, via improvements in airport quality and visa policy, might in the long-term do far more to address its tourism deficit, than it gains from visa revenues, which the Finance ministry never gets to see.”
No Plan to Increase Fuel Price; Says FG
The Federal Government has stated that it has no plan to increase fuel price during the yuletide period.
This assurance is coming amid the nationwide fuel scarcity which has pushed the price of petrol above N250 in many retail stations.
Investors King learnt that fuel is being held for N250 per litre in Abuja and several other cities across the country while black marketers are charging between N400 and N450 per litre.
The scarcity and the high price of fuel are however becoming unbearable for many Nigerians, especially those who have reasons to embark on business travel for the December festivals.
According to the National Public Relations Officer, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chief Ukadike Chinedu, most of the association members, who owned the bulk of the filling stations across the country, were now subjected to purchasing PMS at about N220/litre, which was why many outlets currently dispensed at about N250/litre and above.
He noted that the cost of the commodity has been on the rise due to its unavailability and other concerns in the sector.
He added that the price of fuel could be sold from N350/litre to N400/litre before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, a number of senior officials at the NNPC had stated that the subsidy was becoming too burdensome on the national oil company, as this was another reason for the scarcity of PMS.
According to a source who is familiar with the development as reported by Punch News, “How can we continue to import 60 million litres of petrol daily and keep subsidising it, while millions of litres are either diverted or cannot be accounted for? The burden is too much, as you rightly captured in that story”.
Investors King understands that NNPC is the sole importer of petroleum into the country and it pays billions of naira every month to subsidise the product to N147 per litre.
Reuters News reported that in August 2022, NNPC paid more than $1 billion as fuel subsidy while the federal government earmarked N3.6 trillion as fuel subsidy in the 2023 budget proposal.
Fuel Scarcity: NNPC Declares 2billion Liters in Stock, Blames Scarcity on Road Construction
NNPC Claimed it as 2 billion litres of fuel despite scarcity
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) has blamed the recent fuel scarcity on road construction around Apapa, noting that the corporation has about 2 billion litres of fuel in stock.
According to a statement issued by NNPC Executive Vice President, Downstream, Mr Adeyemi Adetunji, the Nigeria National Petroleum Company has about 2 billion litres of fuel which can last the country conveniently for more than 30 days.
The Executive Vice President further blamed the queues on the road construction around Apapa axis which has slowed down the movement of oil trucks to several parts of the country.
“The recent queues in Lagos are largely due to ongoing road infrastructure projects around Apapa and access road challenges in Lagos” he said.
He however noted that more filling stations should have Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) otherwise known as petrol with the ease in gridlock along the apapa axis.
“The gridlock is easing out and NNPC Ltd has programmed vessels and trucks to unconstrained depots and massive load outs from depots to states are closely monitored,” he said.
Investors King gathered that several states including Abuja have been impacted by the supply chain difficulty caused by the construction around Apapa.
The scarcity of fuel has therefore led to the hike in price. In most places across the country, fuel is sold as high as N250 per litre. Several fuel stations are already taking advantage of the situation coupled with the increase in the movement of people and goods owing to the December festivals.
Speaking further, Adeyemi noted that the situation will soon be back to normalcy as NNPC is taking measures to address the situation.
“We want to reassure Nigerians that NNPC has sufficient products and we significantly increased product loading in selected depots and extended hours at strategic stations to ensure sufficiency nationwide.
“We are also working with industry stakeholders to ensure normalcy is returned as soon as possible,” he concluded.
Global Growth to Drop Below 2% in 2023, Says Citi
Citigroup on Wednesday forecast global growth to slow to below 2% next year, echoing similar projections by major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan.
Strategists at the brokerage cited continued challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war — which skyrocketed inflation to decades-high levels and triggered aggressive policy tightening — as reasons behind the outlook.
“We see global performance as likely (being) plagued by ‘rolling’ country-level recessions through the year ahead,” said Citi strategists, led by Nathan Sheets.
While the Wall-Street investment bank expects the U.S. economy to grow 1.9% this year, it is seen more than halving to 0.7% in 2023.
It expects year-on-year U.S. inflation at 4.8% next year, with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s terminal rate seen between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Among other geographies, Citi sees the UK and euro area falling into recession by the end of this year, as both economies face the heat of energy constraints on supply and demand front, along with tighter monetary and fiscal policies.
For 2023, Citi projects UK and euro area to contract 1.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
In China, the brokerage expects the government to soften its zero-COVID policy, which is seen driving a 5.6% growth in gross domestic product next year.
Emerging markets, meanwhile, are seen growing 3.7%, with India’s 5.7% growth — slower than this year’s 6.7% prediction — seen leading among major economies.
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