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Nigeria Losing $8bn in Tourism Revenue – RenCap

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tourism

The Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital, Mr. Charles Robertson, says Nigeria is losing at least $8bn in tourism receipts.

Robertson, who stated this in an emailed note on Wednesday, stressed the need for improvements in airport quality and visa policy.

He said, “Why is Ghana 25 times more successful than Nigeria in attracting tourism revenues? Indeed, why is Nigeria the second least successful African country in attracting tourism receipts out of the 43 we have data for (only the DRC is worse)?

“One deterrent is the visa process, which we argue is sometimes an example of countries putting pride before economics.  It can be an unpleasant experience for an east European or African to get a visa to visit the EU or US – and so it’s not surprising that some emerging markets and frontier countries make it hard for people in richer countries to visit them.”

According to him, patriotic countries like Turkey and Croatia do not jeopardise the economic benefits of tourism by insisting on visa reciprocity.

Robertson said, “We argue that deterring tourists is an economic mistake,  especially when the EM or frontier economies are weak. Countries like Russia and Nigeria could do with the diversification that tourism might provide.”

He said during tough times, Spain and Greece had seen tourism revenues rise substantially as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product in recent years, adding,  “Many EM and frontier countries have not despite weak currencies and low jet fuel costs.

“We think Russia is missing out on at least $6bn of tourism receipts, while Nigeria is missing $8bn if only it could boost tourism receipts to Ghana’s equivalent level (and any improvement on the current $0.5bn in travel receipts would be welcome given currency shortages in Nigeria.”

He said countries like Cambodia, Georgia and Laos had seen huge increases in tourism revenues over the past 10 to 20 years due in part to open visa regime policies.

“He added, “We think frontier markets like Pakistan and Nigeria could see strong tourism growth in the coming years from an extremely low base, much as Cape Verde and Laos have done in the past 20 years.

“When we look at net tourism receipts (spending abroad by your citizens, minus spending in your country by foreign tourists),   we can see which frontier countries are doing best (Croatia, Jordan, Mauritius, Morocco) and which are doing worst (including Nigeria, Pakistan and Romania).”

According to the RenCap economist, Russia will boost its  GDP and current account receipts if it bring forward its 2018 plan to introduce temporary visa-free travel for the World Cup (and made this permanent)

He added, “Nigeria, via improvements in airport quality and visa policy, might in the long-term do far more to address its tourism deficit, than it gains from visa revenues, which the Finance ministry never gets to see.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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