Connect with us

Forex

New Zealand’s Economy Grows 0.9% in Second Quarter

Published

on

new-zealand-economy

The New Zealand’s economy grew at the same pace in the second quarter as the first quarter, but with stronger production.

Gross domestic product rose 0.9 percent in the second quarter, pushing annual growth to 3.6 percent, Statistics New Zealand reported on Thursday.

The increase in international demand for goods (dairy, meat and fruit) saw exports climb 4 percent, its biggest quarterly increase in two-decade.

While household spending surged by 1.9 percent, with Kiwis reportedly spending more on eating out, furnishing their houses and going away.

Construction grew 5 percent, with increases in all sub-industries.  There’s also been an increase in investment in residential building and construction-related investment.

Service industries grew 0.7 percent.  The main drivers were rental, hiring, real estate, retail and health care.

GDP per capita rose 0.5 percent in the June quarter, up from a 0.3 percent increase in March.

As for what this means for our hip pockets, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie say any growth flows into the economy and eventually into wages.

“If we continue to see unemployment track down, wages will start to move up and people will start to get ahead.

“We’re seeing real wage growth at the moment of 1.5 percent, but I’m expecting that to grow to 2.5 percent over the next 24 months.”

Finance Minister Bill English says the annual results puts New Zealand in the top three in the OECD in terms of high growth rates.

It also puts the worth of New Zealand’s economy at $250 billion for the first time.

Mr English says the annual growth is more than double the OECD rate of 1.6 percent and compares with 3.3 percent in Australia, 2.2 percent in the UK and 1.2 percent in the US.

But international economist Ann Pettifor says New Zealand’s economy is “hugely imbalanced”.

Ms Pettifor, a UK-based economist and director of Prime: Policy Research in Macroeconomics, told Paul Henry central banks, including New Zealand’s Reserve Bank should be managing the way banks lend money.

“In Auckland, banks are lending crazy money on speculation – speculating that property prices will rise.

“It’s overvalued bricks and mortar and speculating that that price will continue rising forever and of course it won’t and when it starts falling then the debt has to be re-payed and the equity in the property falls.”

She says talk of New Zealand being a “rockstar economy” was “the kind of language we heard before the [Global Financial Crisis]”.

“But what’s interesting about New Zealand is that inequality rose in this country more than in any other developed country in the world between 1980 and the 2000s – that’s extraordinary.”

She says those levels of inequality lead to political instability which has led to the rise of the likes of Donald Trump and “fascists in Europe”.

Labour’s finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says everyday Kiwis won’t be feeling the benefits of GDP growth.

“The answer is because on a per person basis our economy is barely moving.

“We have seen enormous population growth in New Zealand in the last year and that generates economic activity. But what these numbers show is that we are not getting the increased economic value from that to mean real sustainable growth. This adds further to the need to review and adjust immigration policy to ensure it contributes to real growth.”

He says real disposable income per capita fell in the past quarter, meaning Kiwis “don’t feel they’re getting ahead”.

Mr Robertson says the economy is being kept afloat by population growth and an unsustainable housing bubble.

 

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Again CBN Devalues Naira by N6 Ahead of World Bank’s $1.5bn Loan Request

Published

on

Naira Dollar Exchange Rate

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again devalued the Nigerian Naira by N6 to the United States Dollar, making it the third time the apex bank will adjust the Naira exchange rate this year.

The devaluation brings the CBN closer to actualising foreign exchange unification demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April before the $3.4 billion loan was approved.

This same condition was enforced by the World Bank as a prerequisite for approval of $1.5 billion loan request submitted by the Federal Government. The loan the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, said she was positive it would be approved by the multilateral institution in the next meeting given that the Federal Government has met all the conditions for the said loan.

24 hours later, the apex bank devalued the Naira official rate by N6 from N379/US$ to N385/US$. While the International Money Transfer Service Operators (IMTOs), all authorised dealers, bureau de change operators and service providers were asked to add N6 across all rates.

The rate for IMTOs against the US dollar has now moved from N382 to N388. Meaning banks will now sell dollar to the CBN at N389, up from the previous N383 to us dollar.

Again, the Central Bank sale of dollar to the bureau de change operators was pegged at N390 to dollar, against the old N384 to US dollar.

The apex bank, therefore, directed the BDCs to sell at not more than N392 per dollar to end-users. The old rate was N386 to a US dollar.

The CBN circlar reads in part, “Weekly Exchange Rate For Disbursement of Proceeds of International Money Transfer Service Operators’ pegged IMTOs sale of dollar to banks at N388 to dollar; banks sale of dollar to CBN at N389 to dollar and CBN sale of dollar to BDCs at N390 to dollar. The BDCs are now expected to sale to end-users at not more than N392 to dollar and each BDC is entitled to buy $10,000 weekly”.

Continue Reading

Forex

More Problem for CBN as Naira Approaches N500/US$ at the Black Market

Published

on

Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 - 10

Naira plunged against the United States Dollar to a record low of N495 at the black market on Thursday despite the Central Bank of Nigeria saying it has enough financial means to meet forex demands.

The Naira declined by N12 from N483 it exchanged on Monday amid persistent scarcity and high demands by importers and businesses looking to offset COVID-19 losses with the usual December high demand sales.

Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on Tuesday blamed the wide foreign exchange rate at the black market on speculators and hoarders looking for personal gain at the expense of the nation.

He went on to caution experts using black market rates to analyse the local currency performance to stop and claimed that section of the forex only accounts for 5 percent of the nation’s total foreign exchange transactions.

While that might be true, it is also true that majority of manufacturers and businesses have turned to the black market for their forex needs in recent months, especially after it became obvious that the apex bank does not have enough liquidity to service the economy.

The nation’s foreign reserves has been battered by the weak oil prices and the continuous production cut by OPEC and allies to artificially support low prices. Nigeria’s foreign reserves is presently hovering between $35 billion and $36 billion after plunging from $45 billion attained in June 2019, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Against the British Pound, the Nigerian Naira depreciated by N15 to N635 from N620 it exchanged on Monday. Another indication of chronic forex scarcity as the local currency also plunged to N580 against the European common currency, the Euro.

The wide forex is expected to further weigh on the nation’s inflation rate and consumer spending this December.

On Tuesday, the apex bank left the interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent and attributed the rising inflation rate to structural policies, the recent #EndSARS protest and a surging fuel price.

Continue Reading

Forex

Naira Gains N1 to N483 Against US Dollar as CBN Warned Speculators of Impending Doom

Published

on

Naira Remains under pressure

The Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday warned speculators and hoarders of the United States Dollar against creating artificial forex scarcity for personal gain.

Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, said black market forex rates does not reflect the economic reality of the Nigerian Naira as that section of the forex is tainted with bribes and individuals looking to profit at the expense of the nation.

We do not agree that the determining factor for our currency should be based on a market that is tainted, where people go to offer bribes,” he stated during a virtual monetary policy committee briefing in Abuja.

The Nigerian Naira gained N1 against the United States dollar to trade at N483 at the parallel market also known as the black market, up from N484 it traded on Monday.

Emefiele said “The black market is illegal where people do not provide documentation to support transactions. It is unfortunate and unfair for analysts to say Nigeria’s exchange rate is at 480 per dollar.”

The Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) agreed with the central bank, saying speculators and currency hoarders are responsible for the wide forex rates. The association warned that speculators are going to lose money given that the apex bank has foreign reserves of $36 billion to support the local currency and meet forex demands.

The apex bank left the interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent to further stimulate growth in the real sector and speed up the recovery process with cheaper loans. Other ratios were left unchanged as well.

Speaking on the rising inflation rate, Godwin Emefiele attributed the 14.23 percent increase in consumer prices to the rising pump price, the recent #EndSARS protest and structural policies.

Therefore, it looks like the apex bank will damn rising inflation for the first time to focus on economic productivity, new job creation and general growth.

The Naira CBN official rate remains $379 to a United States Dollar while it exchanged at N385 on the Investors and Exporters Forex Window on Tuesday.

Continue Reading

Trending