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The RBNZ Cuts GDP and Inflation Forecast

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New Zealand dollar
  • The RBNZ Cuts GDP and Inflation Forecast

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for a 19th consecutive month in May.

And that looks set to continue for some time yet based off the latest forecasts and statement released by new RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr.

They were dovish, indicating the RBNZ is in no rush to lift official interest rates.

“Economic growth and employment in New Zealand remain robust, near their sustainable levels. However, consumer price inflation remains below the 2% mid-point of our target due, in part, to recent low food and import price inflation, and subdued wage pressures.” Orr said, adding that he sees “consumer price inflation gradually rise to our 2% annual”.

Orr said the best way to ensure to see inflation move back to target would be “to keep the OCR [overnight cash rate] at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time”.

“This is the best contribution we can make, at this moment, to maximising sustainable employment and maintaining low and stable inflation,” he said, referring to his new dual policy mandate.

For a second consecutive meeting, the RBNZ also offered no commentary on the New Zealand dollar, indicating a degree of comfort at its current level.

Adding to the dovish undertones of the May monetary policy statement, the RBNZ also downgraded its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the period ahead.

Crucially, the RBNZ pushed back the probable timing of a rate hike, now seeing it arrive in the September quarter next year, one quarter later than three months ago.

It didn’t change its view that the first rate hike will come by the first quarter of 2020.

“The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain at 1.75 percent for some time to come. The direction of our next move is equally balanced, up or down,” Orr said.

“Only time and events will tell.”

Again, another dovish signal from the bank.

The combination of dovish commentary and forecast downgrades has seen the NZD/USD tumble, falling from from 0.6980 to 0.6940.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar To Naira Exchange Rate For Today 28th January 2023

Dollar to naira exchange rate today black market (Aboki dollar rate)

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New Naira notes

You can access the black market Dollar to Naira exchange rate for today, 28th January on Investors King.

This online business news platform has obtained the official dollar to naira exchange rate in Nigeria today including the Black Market rates, Bureau De Change (BDC) rate, and CBN rates.

Note that the exchange rate changes hourly.… it depends on the volume of dollars available and the Demands. It means that…you can buy or sell 1 dollar at ₦750 and ₦755, and the price can change (high or low) within hours.

How Much Is Black Market Dollar To Naira Exchange Rate Today?

Dollar to naira exchange rate today black market (Aboki dollar rate):

Investors King understands that the exchange rate for a dollar to naira at Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market) players buy a dollar for N750 and sell at N755 as of the time of filing this report.

Exchange Rate of Dollar To Naira in Black Market Today?
Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Buying Rate 750
Selling Rate 755

The local currency opened at N755.00 per $1 at the parallel market otherwise known as the black market today Saturday, 28th January 2023, in Lagos Nigeria, after it closed at N750 per $1 on Thursday, 26th January 2023.

Even though the dollar to naira opened in the parallel market at N755 per $1 today, Investors King reports that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not recognize the parallel market, otherwise known as the black market. The apex bank has therefore directed anyone who requires forex to approach their bank, insisting that the I&E window is the only known exchange.

Investors King reports that in the black market, the players buy a dollar for N750 and sell for N757 on Saturday morning, January 28, 2023, after they purchased N744 and sold for N746 on Thursday, 26 January 2023.

Meanwhile, Investors King reports that the USD started this week at ₦745 in Parallel Market also known as Black Market on Monday, January 23, 2023, in Lagos Nigeria, after it opened at ₦744 last week Monday, January 16, 2023.

Factors Influencing Foreign Exchange Rates

Here are some of the causes of the dwindling dollar to naira exchange rate.

Inflation Rates: It is well known that inflation directly impacts black market exchange rates. If the Nigerian economy can be stabilized and inflation is controlled, the naira will benefit; however, if the naira continues to fall, it may indicate that food and other necessities are becoming more expensive daily.

Interest Rates: Another tool to keep an eye on is interest rates. If the interest rate at which banks lend money rises, it would harm the economy, causing it to contract and, as a result, the value of the naira to fall.

Government Debt: National debt can impact investor confidence and, as a result, the influx of funds into the economy. If inflows are high, the naira exchange rate will rise in favour of the naira.

Speculators: Speculators frequently impact the naira-to-dollar exchange rate. They stockpile money in anticipation of a gain, causing the naira to plummet even lower.

Conditions of Trade: Favorable trade terms will increase the value of the naira to the dollar, although Nigeria is currently experiencing a trade deficit. Everything comes from China, India, and the majority of Asian countries.

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Dollar

U.S. Dollar Remains Pressured Ahead of FOMC Meeting, Trades Near 8-Month Low

The U.S. Dollar Index stood at 101.53, near an eight-month low of 101.51 hit on Monday.

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate - Investors King

The United States Dollar on Tuesday extended its decline against global counterparts as the uncertainty surrounding corporate earnings amid recession concerns dragged on currency outlook.

The U.S. Dollar Index, the gauge which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, stood at 101.53, near an eight-month low of 101.51 hit on Monday.

Against the Sterling, the U.S. Dollar lost 0.12% to $1.2415 while the Euro gained 0.05% to $1.0920, nearing its 9-month high of $1.0927 attained on Monday.

“The euro does draw a lot of attention,” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The eurozone “had a favorable winter ….The energy crisis that people were expecting hasn’t quite played out yet.”

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was last exchanged at 1.3393 per dollar following the decision of the Bank of Canada to increase the interest rate to 4.5%.

Accordingly, the U.S. dollar lost 0.06% against the Australian dollar on Thursday morning after a 0.8% gain on Wednesday after the consumer price index report showed Australian inflation rose to a 33-year high in the fourth quarter of 2022.

A check by Investors King showed that against the New Zealand dollar, the U.S. dollar was steady at $0.6480. In Asia, the Japanese yen appreciated by 0.3% to 129.21 per dollar.

The currency traders have started pricing in a 25-basis point interest rate increase for next week when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will converge in a two-day meeting to decide the interest rate.

“There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner,” said economists at Wells Fargo.

“With the Fed no longer leading the charge on interest rate hikes and U.S. economic trends set to worsen, we now believe the U.S. dollar has entered a period of cyclical depreciation against most foreign currencies.”

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Naira

‘100 Days Enough to Deposit Old Currency,’ CBN Insists on Jan. 31 Deadline

CBN has insisted on the earlier announced January 31, 2023 deadline

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New Naira notes

As pressures and appeals rise for an extension of the deadline for deposit of old naira notes, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN has insisted on the earlier announced January 31, 2023 deadline.

Investors King recalls that last year the CBN declared that new N200, N500, N1000 notes will be made available in banks on Dec 15, 2022 and the old currencies will cease to become legal tender by Jan. 31, 2023.

Reactions have trailed the redesigned naira notes and the stipulated deadline due to the slow circulation of the new currencies.

The Senate of the National Assembly, on Tuesday said the CBN should extend the deadline for old notes deposit by six months and compel banks to open naira exchange windows for those who do not have bank accounts.

Reacting to the increasing pressures, CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele said there is no going back on the deadline given.

Emefiele declared this on Tuesday during a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in Abuja.

According to him, 90–100 days is enough to deposit the old naira notes in the bank, adding that the CBN compelled banks to remain open including on Saturdays in order to accept more cash deposits.

He noted that the apex bank is yet to identify any cogent reason why the deadline should be moved as agitated by some section of the people.

“Unfortunately, I don’t have good news for those who say we should shift the deadline. The reason is because 90 days, in fact, 100 days, is enough for anybody who has the old currency to deposit it in the bank.

“We took every measure to ensure all the banks remain open to receive the old currency, including opening on Saturdays. We do not see any reason to begin to talk about a shift. We believe 100 days is more than adequate,” Emefiele said.

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