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Nigeria Records Biggest Drop in Oil Output

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Crude oil production from Nigeria dropped the most in August among its peers in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, paring the gain it recorded in the previous month.

Nigeria had in March lost the status of Africa’s top oil producer to Angola when the country’s production dropped to 1.677 million barrels per day, compared to Angola’s 1.782 million bpd.

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for September, which was released on Monday, showed that Nigeria’s oil output fell to 1.468 million bpd in August from 1.52 million bpd in the previous month, based on direct communication.

Nigeria had in July recorded the biggest increase in output, but it was not enough to help the country regain the top spot from Angola.

According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production stood at 33.24 million bpd in August, a decrease of 23,000 bpd over the previous month.

“Crude oil output increased mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iran, while Nigeria and Libya showed the largest drop,” the 14-member oil cartel said in the report.

Angola saw its oil output rise to 1.775 million bpd in August from 1.767 million bpd the previous month, based on direct communication, according to the OPEC report.

Libya’s production dropped to 292,000 bpd from 313,000 bpd, while Venezuela produced 2.104 million bpd, down from 2.117 million bpd.

Ecuador’s output fell to 542,000 bpd from 549,000 bpd, while Iraq saw its production dropped by 2,000 barrels to 4.354 million bpd.

Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the group, recorded the biggest increase in August as it produced 10.605 million bpd, up from 10.577 million bpd in the previous month.

Iran, which has continued to increase output in a bid to snap up more market share after sanctions were lifted, produced 3.653 million bpd, up from 3.631 million bpd.

According to the report, Africa’s oil supply is projected to average 2.12 million bpd in 2016. This represents a decline of 20,000 bpd year-on-year and reflects an upward revision of 10,000 bpd from the August report.

This year, oil production from Congo is only expected to grow by 50,000 bpd to average 320,000 bpd, while output in other African countries, despite increasing output from Ghana’s production start-up in the Tweneboa, Enyenra, Ntomme project and a production ramp-up in Jubilee field in the second half of the year, will decline or be stagnant, OPEC said.

It raised its forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries in 2017 as new fields come online and United States’ shale drillers prove more resilient than expected to cheap crude, pointing to a larger surplus in the market next year.

Demand for crude from OPEC will average 32.48 million bpd in 2017, down by 530,000 bpd from the previous forecast, according to the report.

Oil is trading at $47 a barrel, half its level of mid-2014, as a supply glut that OPEC hoped cheap oil would banish sticks around.

“It is expected that there will be higher non-OPEC production in the second half of 2016 compared to the first half,” OPEC said in the report.

The cartel expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 200,000 bpd in 2017, as against a previous forecast of 150,000-bpd decline.

Near-record OPEC output, and higher supply from outside, could make it harder for OPEC and Russia to come up with steps to support the market. Producers are expected to meet in Algeria on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum from September 26 to 28.

An attempt by producers to agree to a production freeze in April failed as Iran, wanting to boost oil exports that had been restrained by Western sanctions, refused to join and Saudi Arabia insisted all producers took part.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Halts Cooking Gas Export to Lower Local Prices

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In a bid to stabilize domestic prices and meet rising demand for cooking gas within Nigeria, the Federal Government has announced a temporary halt on the exportation of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), commonly known as cooking gas.

This decision follows a significant surge in the cost of cooking gas, which has placed a strain on consumers across the country.

According to reports, the halt in LPG export aims to increase the availability of the commodity within Nigeria’s borders, thereby reducing its local price.

The move is part of broader efforts to address the challenges faced by consumers grappling with the high cost of living.

In recent years, the demand for cooking gas has steadily increased in Nigeria, driven by urbanization, population growth, and a shift towards cleaner energy sources.

However, despite being a major producer of LPG, Nigeria has struggled to meet its domestic demand due to insufficient local production and distribution infrastructure.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reveals that while the total consumption of cooking gas in Nigeria has been on the rise, the country has relied heavily on imports to bridge the supply gap.

The recent decision by the government underscores its commitment to prioritizing the domestic market and ensuring that Nigerians have access to affordable cooking gas.

Consumers have been grappling with escalating prices, with reports indicating a significant increase in the cost of refilling a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas in major cities like Abuja, Lagos, and Kano.

The decision to halt LPG exports signals a proactive measure by the government to mitigate the adverse effects of rising prices and alleviate the financial burden on households across the nation.

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Manufacturing Sector Records 7.70% Quarter-on-Quarter Growth in Q4 2023

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In the fourth quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector grew by 7.70% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The surge in growth reflects a significant uptick from the preceding quarter and underscores the resilience of the manufacturing industry amid economic challenges.

This growth trajectory indicates positive momentum and signals potential opportunities for economic recovery and development.

The manufacturing sector, comprising thirteen key activities ranging from oil refining to motor vehicles and assembly, demonstrated notable dynamism across various subsectors.

This growth surge is attributed to increased production, enhanced operational efficiencies, and strategic investments across the manufacturing value chain.

Despite facing headwinds such as supply chain disruptions and regulatory uncertainties, the sector’s robust performance underscores its pivotal role in driving economic diversification, job creation, and industrialization efforts in Nigeria.

Moving forward, sustaining this growth momentum will require continued policy support, investment in infrastructure, and efforts to address key bottlenecks hindering the sector’s expansion.

By fostering an enabling business environment and promoting innovation and technology adoption, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector can further catalyze inclusive economic growth and contribute significantly to the nation’s development agenda.

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Economy

Nigeria’s GDP Grows by 3.46% in Q4 2023, Driven by Services

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Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023 on the back of robust performance of the services sector, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The GDP expansion though slightly lower than the 3.52% recorded in the same period of 2022, reflects a positive trajectory for the Nigerian economy amid ongoing challenges.

The growth rate surpassed the 2.54% recorded in the preceding quarter, indicating a rebound in economic activity.

The services sector emerged as the key driver of growth expanding by 3.98% and contributing 56.55% to the overall GDP.

This sector’s resilience underscores its pivotal role in Nigeria’s economic landscape, encompassing diverse industries such as telecommunications, finance, and real estate.

Also, the agriculture sector experienced growth, expanding by 2.10% compared to the same period in 2022.

Meanwhile, the industry sector recorded a notable improvement, growing by 3.86%, a stark contrast to the -0.94% contraction observed in the fourth quarter of 2022.

On an annual basis, Nigeria’s GDP expanded by 2.74% in 2023 compared to 3.10% in the previous year, reflecting sustained but moderated growth.

The positive trajectory in GDP growth reflects resilience in the face of various economic challenges.

However, sustaining and accelerating growth will require continued efforts to address structural bottlenecks, foster investment, and promote inclusive economic policies across sectors.

Nigeria’s Oil Sector Growth

During the fourth quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s oil sector posted a real growth rate of 12.11% year-on-year, signifying a significant improvement from previous periods.

This was driven by the surge in average daily oil production to 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd), a positive shift in the sector’s performance.

Despite challenges such as global market fluctuations and production constraints, the oil sector contributed 4.70% to the nation’s total real GDP in Q4 2023.

Nigeria’s Non-Oil Sector

Nigeria’s non-oil sector sustained growth momentum, posting a 3.07% real growth rate in Q4 2023.

This growth was primarily attributed to key industries including finance, telecommunications, agriculture, manufacturing, and construction.

Accounting for 95.30% of the nation’s GDP in the same quarter, the non-oil sector continues to drive economic diversification efforts and reduce dependence on oil revenues.

Despite facing challenges, such as infrastructure deficits and regulatory bottlenecks, the sector’s resilience underscores its pivotal role in fostering sustainable economic development and inclusive growth agendas.

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