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Power Output Drops by 30% in 2Q, Says Report

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PHCN Power Plant

THE power sector recorded a drop of 30.01 per cent in the second quarter (Q2) due to poor generation caused by militants’attacks in the Niger Delta, a new report has said.

The report said the attacks led to the shut down of pipelines and the shut-in of gas that powered thermal plants between last April and June.

A report, released by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), stated the status of power generation and distribution during the period.

According to the report, 2,046,821,132.72 kilowatts-hour (kwh) of electricity was generated in April with average daily output of 68,227,371.09 kwh.

In May, grid output was 1,765,782,918.34 kwh with average daily production at 56,960739.30 kwh while in June production was 1,426,183,518.94 kwh and daily output was 47,539,450.63 kwh.

According to the data, Egbin Power Station made the highest contribution to the national grid with 15.81 per cent, Shell’s Afam VI Power Station came second with 13.81 per cent and Geregu Power station provided the least at 0.46 per cent.

However, Afam I-V, Gbarain, AES, Rivers IPP and Omoku Power Stations operated at zero levels. A new Independent Power Plant, Paras Energy, contributed 0.94 per cent. Paras Energy, on the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway, has a bilateral Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Eko Electricity Distribution Company to supply its generated electricity.

Generation output from the thermal power stations, especially those outside the Niger Delta, continued to be adversely affected by pipeline vandalism, the report said.

In May, energy dipped by as much as 13.73 per cent compared to April’s output.

Shell’s Afam VI Power station beat Egbin Power Station by making the highest contribution to the grid with 17.32 per cent.

Egbin came second with 15.63 per cen. The new entrant, Gbarain Power Station (one of the NIPP plants constructed by the Niger Delta Power Holding Company), contributed the least with 0.38 per cent while Olorunsogo Power Station, which contributed 0.72 per cent in April, made no contribution.

Total generation went down by 19.23 per cent in June compared with energy generated in May. However, for the first time, Jebba Hydro Power Station contributed the highest energy into the grid with 15.57 per cent.

Egbin came second with 14.58 per cent, while another hydro station, Kanji power station, came third with 14.58 per cent. Omoku power Station resumed production with the contribution of 0.18 per cent.

Throughout the second quarter, AES Power Station, Rivers IPP, and Afam 1-V did not produce any power. The hydro power stations steadily improved their contributions to the grid in the second quarter from 21.78 per cent in April to 23.10 per cent in May and 32.46 per cent in June.

The hydro power stations made the highest contribution in June. Thermal plants (legacy stations) experienced a marginal rise from 30.71 per cent in April to 31.66 per cent in May and dropped to 28.77 per cent in June.

The National Integrated Power Plants (NIPP) produced 20.72 per cent in April, went down to 17.33 per cent in May and dropped marginally to 17.06 per cent in June.

The most significant difference in contribution during this period under review was in the independent power plant (IPP) group. In April, the group contribution was 26.80 per cent and it went up marginally to 27.91 per cent in May and dropped drastically to 21.72 per cent in June.

During the quarter, the national grid witnessed 14 total system collapses and four incidents of partial system collapse.

“In April, the grid witnessed three instances of total system collapses and no incidence of partial system collapse but in May, the grid witnessed six instances of total system collapses and one incident of partial system collapse while in June the grid witnessed five instances of total system collapses and three incidents of partial system collapse. The incidents of total and partial collapses occurred, especially due to generation limitations,” the TCN said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Oil Gains Slightly on Thursday as China Eases COVID-19 Measures

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Oil prices rebound on Thursday following China’s announcement that it was easing COVID-19 measures imposed to curb the spread of the virus.

China on Wednesday announced the most sweeping changes to its resolute anti-COVID regime since the pandemic began, while at least 20 oil tankers faced delays in crossing to the Mediterranean from Russia’s Black Sea ports.

Brent crude rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $77.44 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $72.50.

“Today, we do see some green price action,” said Naeem Aslam, analyst at Avatrade. “Prices are oversold due to the intense sell-off for the past few days. However, the price action still doesn’t show a strong bullish bias.”

The 14-day relative strength index for Brent was below 30 on Thursday according to Eikon data, a level taken by technical analysts as indicating an asset is oversold and could be poised for a rebound.

Both Brent and U.S. crude hit 2022 lows on Wednesday, unwinding all the gains made after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades and sent oil close to its all-time high of $147.

Western officials were in talks with Turkish counterparts to resolve the tanker queues, a British Treasury official said on Wednesday, after the G7 and European Union rolled out new the restrictions on Dec. 5 aimed at Russian oil exports.

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Wind Out of the Sails

UK consumer spending remains subdued, with BRC reporting a 4.1% annual increase

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Stock markets are making small losses on Tuesday, while US futures are relatively unchanged ahead of the open.

The recovery rally has lost momentum in recent sessions which is understandable after that jobs report. That’s not to say optimism can’t and won’t return but that wages component was a huge body blow. Investors are a little winded and it may just take a little time to get their breath back.

The PPI data on Friday could offer a helping hand on that front but even then, it will be hard to ease the concern Fed policymakers will undoubtedly have about the pace of wage growth, consumer resilience and the still large savings buffer. None of this aligns with a swift and relatively pain-free return to 2% inflation.

RBA maintains flexible approach

The key takeaway from the RBA meeting today was flexibility. There is no pre-set path and while policymakers expect to need to raise rates at upcoming meetings, the data will dictate if so and by how much. That doesn’t help investors gage exactly what we can expect from the central bank but in such uncertain times, that makes a lot of sense. And you can see that reflected in the interest rate probabilities for the first quarter of next year. As it stands, no change or 25 basis points in February is a coin toss, while 3.35% in March (25bps above the current rate) is seen as being 50% likely with 25bps either side around 25% each. Clearly the RBAs communication strategy is going to plan.

Households feeling the squeeze this festive season

It will come as a surprise to no one that UK consumer spending remains subdued, with BRC reporting a 4.1% annual increase. With inflation running at 11.1%, spending is falling well behind, as is the case with wages, which suggests people are buying less and being more selective with what they do this festive season. Again, what can you expect when the economy is probably already in recession amid a terrible cost-of-living crisis that hurts those worst off most. The road to recovery for the UK is going to be long and painful, it seems.

The only guarantee for oil markets

It’s been a volatile start to the week in oil markets, continuing in much the same way we ended last, with traders still working through the announcements from the G7 and OPEC+, as well as the latest Covid moves from China. In many way, none of the above improve visibility in the crude oil space; they arguably actually make the outlook more uncertain.

But the intial response to the above has seemingly been negative for crude prices, with the loosening of Chinese Covid curbs not enough to offset the $60 price cap and unchanged OPEC+ decision. The cap is probably viewed as a business as usual for now, with Russia reportedly selling below these levels already and improving its ability to get around the sanctions. Which means output remains broadly steady.

The move from OPEC+ was probably driven by the lack of visibility on China and Russia but as the group has warned in the past, should prices fall too far and the market become imbalanced, it won’t wait until the next scheduled meeting to respond. It seems that the only thing guaranteed in the oil market for now is volatility.

Gold paring losses

The dollar recovered strongly on Monday as trade became increasingly risk-averse, hitting gold and forcing it back below $1,800 where it briefly traded above. It’s attempting to pare those losses today, up around half a percent on the day but it may struggle in the short-term. It’s been an incredible recovery until now but Friday was a massive setback. We now have to wait for PPI on Friday for some good news, with Fed policymakers in the blackout period ahead of the final meeting of the year, next week.

Stabilising?

The risk-reversal trade on Monday took the wind out of bitcoins sails, not that it would have taken much in the circumstances. It’s trading back around $17,000 where it has spent most of the last week, which the community will probably be relieved about. Anticipating what’s going to come next for cryptos feels incredibly difficult and dependent on the ongoing fallout from FTX. To reiterate what I’ve said recently, silence is bliss.

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A Nervy Start to the Week

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

What could have been a really positive week for equity markets is off to a much more nervy start, with stocks in Europe treading water and US futures slightly lower.

The inflation report on Friday was red hot once more, extinguishing any hope that investors could hop aboard the Fed pivot train and ride stock markets higher into year-end. Perhaps it’s not quite so dramatic but it was a real setback, something we should be used to by now.

The wages component was the killer blow. That was not just a beat, it obliterated expectations and came in double the forecasted number. It may be a blip, but it’s a huge one and it will almost certainly take more than one much cooler report in January to comfort those that still fear inflation becoming entrenched.

That’s ultimately where we’re now up to in the inflation story. Many accept that base effects and lower energy prices will drive the headline inflation figure much lower next year, among other things, while a slower economy – maybe recession – will eventually hit demand and contribute to the decline. But what the Fed fears now is fighting entrenched inflation and these wage numbers won’t make for comfortable reading.

An economic victory for China amid gloomy PMIs

Chinese stocks were the clear outperformer overnight as authorities continued to work towards a softening of the country’s zero-Covid stance with the end goal seemingly being the end of it altogether. It’s thought that it will be downgraded to category B management as early as next month with officials claiming it’s less threatening than previous strains, a huge move away from the rhetoric and approach of the last few years.

This came as the Caixin services PMI slipped to 46.7, much lower than anticipated. That said, I’m not sure anyone will be shocked given the record Covid surge, but the more targeted – albeit seemingly confused – approach being taken has ensured less disruption, as evidenced by how much better the PMI has performed compared with earlier this year.

And it’s not just China that’s seeing surveys underperforming and, in many cases, putting in sub-50 readings. Europe is either already in recession or heading for it and the surveys highlight just how pessimistic firms are despite the winter getting off to a warmer start.

Japan is among the few recording a growth reading, although having slipped from 53.2 in October to 50.3 last month, you have to wonder for how long. Input prices are punishing firms, with some now raising prices in order to pass those higher costs on. That won’t help activity or convince the BoJ to declare victory, as higher energy and food costs are also hitting domestic demand. The one major outlier is India where the services PMI accelerated higher to 56.4 buoyed by domestic and external demand. An impressive feat in this global environment.

Oil higher as China looks to ease Covid restrictions

Oil prices are higher on Monday, rallying 2%, after the G7 imposed a $60 price cap on Russian oil and OPEC+ announced no new output cuts. Both bring a degree of uncertainty, with the details of the cap and the impact on Russian sales still unclear.

From the OPEC+ perspective, it can’t be easy to make reliable forecasts against that backdrop and the constantly evolving Covid situation in China, which currently looks far more promising from a demand perspective. The decision to leave output unchanged was probably the right one for now and there’s nothing to stop the group from coming together again before the next scheduled meeting should the situation warrant it.

A major setback

It goes without saying that the jobs report on Friday was a big setback for gold as it leaves huge uncertainty around where the terminal rate will land. Of course, we should be used to bumps in the road by now, having experienced many already this year. There’s no reason why the path back to 2% should be any smoother.

But the yellow metal did recover those jobs report losses and even hit a new four-month high today. Perhaps the big difference now is momentum. It’s run into strong resistance around those August highs around $1,810 and simply doesn’t have the momentum it would have had the report been cooler. We’re now more than four weeks into the recovery rally in gold and a corrective move of some kind may be on the cards.

Silence is bliss

Bitcoin continues to enjoy a mild relief rally and has even moved above $17,000 to trade at its highest level in almost a month. It’s probably too early to celebrate yet though as these are very cautious gains that could be quickly and easily wiped out by more negative headlines related to FTX. Silence is currently bliss for the crypto community.

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