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Biggest African Economies Stall on Politics, Commodity Slump

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Nigeria inflation hits six-year high

Africa’s two largest economies are stalling amid slumping commodity prices and political infighting that’s hampering decision making.

A government report on Wednesday will probably show Nigeria contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the three months through June as the price and output of oil, its main source of revenue, were squeezed. While South Africa may have avoided falling into a recession, according to the median estimate of five economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the continent’s most-industrialized economy will not grow this year, the nation’s central bank said last month.

The global slump in commodity prices and weak demand from the continent’s main export partners have hit Nigeria, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, and South Africa, where mining produce accounts for about half of export earnings, weighing on both economies. A shortage of foreign currency in Nigeria after the central bank held a currency peg for more than a year, curbed imports, further limiting output, while political uncertainty in South Africa increased in the last week.

“Both countries’ economies are on a declining path,” Manji Cheto, senior vice president at Teneo Intelligence in London, said by phone. “That’s being led by politics in South Africa, and government policies that are reactive in Nigeria and might not work in the short term.”

Nigeria’s economy probably shrank 1.6 percent in the three months through June, according to the median of 15 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg, following a 0.4 percent year-on-year contraction in the first quarter. Gross domestic product may decline by 1.8 percent for the year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Nigeria delayed the approval of its record spending plans of 6.1 trillion naira ($19.4 billion) as President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration haggled with lawmakers over budgetary allocations. Militants have destroyed energy installations in the Niger River delta, cutting the nation’s oil output to an almost three-decade low, and further reducing earnings from an industry hit by a more than 50 percent drop in price since the middle of 2014.Nigeria relies on oil for two-thirds of government revenue and 90 percent of foreign-currency earnings.

Commodity Prices

“Both countries are adjusting to the decline in commodity prices,” said Sizwe Nxedlana, chief economist at Johannesburg-based First National Bank. “The nice thing about South Africa is that we are significantly more diversified as an economy than Nigeria.”

Nigerian central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele increased borrowing costs by 200 basis points last month to fight inflation that reached 16.5 percent in June and lure investors to help prop up the naira. The currency has lost more than a third of its value against the dollar since the central bank removed a currency peg on June 20.

Diversified Economy

While South Africa’s rand strengthened more than 10 percent against the dollar between the start of the year and early August, helping the economy to temporarily replace Nigeria as the continent’s largest in dollar terms, the currency slumped more than 5 percent since reports a week ago that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan may be arrested. Gordhan, 67, said on Aug. 24 his attorneys received a letter from the Hawks, a special police unit, asking him to come to their office. He did not comply with the request.

“It’s a foregone conclusion that Nigeria is in recession,” Cheto said. “Revenue growth has been positive in South Africa, but if the political situation deteriorates, it will show negatively in the economy.”

The naira was unchanged at 314.75 per dollar by 9:01a.m. on Lagos on Tuesday. The rand strengthened 0.3 percent to 14.3682 per dollar.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

NNPC Increases Fuel Price, Sells Pump at N1,030 Across Outlets

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Petrol pump price has risen to N1,030 per litre at various outlets of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) in Abuja on Wednesday.

The recent development comes after the NNPC decided to terminate its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery.

The company had on Monday announced an end to its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery, opening up the market for other marketers to buy petrol directly from the refinery.

This means the NNPC will no longer be the sole off-taker, and marketers can now negotiate prices directly with Dangote Refinery.

This development aligns with the current practices for fully deregulated products, where refineries can sell directly to marketers on a willing buyer, willing seller basis.

Investors King had reported on Tuesday that oil marketers accused Dangote Refinery of ignoring its call for lifting of petrol.

However, checks on Wednesday at NNPC Ltd outlets in the Central area of Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, showed that the price of the Premium Motor Spirit had been adjusted upward with the pump price of petroleum hitting N1,030.

Customers at the station also confirmed that the price of fuel was changed from N897 to N1,030.

At several other outlets in the Wuse, Lugbe area of the capital city, the pump price equally jumped to N1,030 as motorists and commuters grumbled amid the uncertainty.

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Crude Oil

Italian Prosecutors Sentenced to Jail for Concealing Evidence in $1.3 Billion Nigerian Oilfield Case

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Oil

An Italian court has sentenced two Milan prosecutors, Fabio De Pasquale and Sergio Spadaro, to eight months imprisonment for concealing evidence in an alleged corruption case involving a $1.3 billion oilfield in Nigeria.

The court found the duo guilty after it was established that they failed to file documents that could have supported Eni’s defense in the trial.

Regarded as one of the energy industry’s most significant corruption trials, the case which involves Eni and Shell centered around the $1.3 billion acquisition of a Nigerian oilfield.

In 2020, the Nigerian government filed a case against Shell/SNUD and Eni asking for compensation in the sum of $1.3 billion over an Oil Prospecting License 245, also known as OPL 245.

The case which had dragged on for over a decade came to a halt when the Ministry of Justice withdrew its petition in an Italian Court in March 2024.

Meanwhile, an international Court in Italy had already declared Shell and its affiliate partners not guilty on all counts.

Nigeria also decided to “irrevocably” suspend any future legal claims in Italy against Eni, its affiliates, as well as present and former officers concerning rights related to the field.

Meanwhile, delivering judgement on the refusal of the prosecutors to tender evidence, the court stated that De Pasquale and Spadaro had omitted key evidence, including a video from a former Eni external lawyer that could have been favourable to the defence.

The court sitting in Brescia and has jurisdiction over judicial matters in Milan had listened to the argument of the prosecutors who accused De Pasquale and Spadaro of withholding evidence that could have influenced the outcome of the Eni-Shell trial, thereby infringing on the defendants’ rights.

Responding to the charges, the prosecutors’ lawyer sought a full acquittal, arguing that no explicit rule mandated the filing of documents by prosecutors in such cases.

In March 2021, a Milan court acquitted Eni, Shell, and all other defendants, despite criticisms of the prosecutors’ conduct.

Judges ruled that the two prosecutors had a legal duty to submit evidence that might have aided the defense. The lawyer did not offer immediate comments following the conviction.

Afterward, the Brescia court sentenced the duo to eight-month jail term as requested by the prosecutors.

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Energy

Direct Petrol Lifting: Oil Marketers Accuse Dangote Refinery of Frustrating Efforts at Making Fuel Cheaper 

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil marketers in Nigeria have alleged that the Dangote 650,000 barrels per day Lagos-based refinery has been snubbing them on their demand to directly lift its Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol.

They hinted that the development is a setback on their efforts at making fuel sell cheaper across filling stations in the country.

The President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abubakar Maigandi and the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association, PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry assured that if they are allowed to directly lift petrol from Dangote Refinery, it would make the product sell lesser.

Recall that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited announced that it is quitting its role as sole off-taker of Dangote Petrol, thus forcing oil marketers and Nigerians to be in a waiting state.

Speaking on the development, Maigandi said all efforts put forward by IPMAN to meet with Dangote Refinery’s management have not yielded results and that messages sent to the refinery for direct lifting of its petrol were not replied to.

As of Monday this week, the oil marketers said they have not been able to have any of their proposed meetings with Dangote Refinery and neither has any feedback been given by Dangote Refinery on direct sales of its fuel.

They said it was difficult for them to make comments on the price of Dangote Petrol since they have not been able to buy it directly.

Notwithstanding, they assured that there would be a reduction in the price of petrol which currently goes between N950 and N1,200 per liter if Dangote Refinery agrees to sell the product directly to them.

Maigandi, while describing the expected reduction in the price of PMS as “small”, noted that NNPCL sold petrol to oil marketers at N840 and N870 per liter depending on the location, adding that “we sell at N950 in Abuja depending on the location.”

Speaking on NNPCL quitting role as sole off-taker of Dangote Petrol, Maigandi stressed that oil marketers are waiting to hear from Dangote Refinery on whether petrol could be lifted directly.

Gillis-Harry’s position was not different as he corroborated his counterpart’s submission that Dangote Refinery refused to sell its petrol directly to marketers.

According to him, despite attempts by petroleum marketers to have business discussions with Dangote Refinery, they have not received the green light.

He said the association had attempted to have a business discussion with Dangote Refinery on direct petrol lifting but as of the time of filing this report, the refinery has not given them greenlight.

Meanwhile, the spokesperson of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina said he was not aware of the allegations.

On September 15, the Dangote Refinery announced the inaugural distribution of its petrol with NNPCL as the sole buyer.

Upon the lifting of Dangote Petrol last month, had announced a fresh fuel price hike between N950 and N1,100 per litre across its retail outlets.

The fuel price adjustments came on the back of NNPCL’s stance that it bought Dangote petrol at N898 per liter, however, Dangote disagreed.

The oil firm, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote had hinted that its petrol pump price would be announced by the Presidential Implementation Committee on Naira-for-crude sales.

However, despite the kick-off of the Naira-for-crude with the expected supply of 24 million barrels by October and November 2024 by the Nigerian government, the price per liter of Dangote Petrol has remained a subject of controversy.

Last month, the House of Representatives urged Dangote Refinery to allow oil marketers to lift its petrol directly.

Earlier, refiners and marketers had hinted that the commencement of the Naira-for-crude sales deal with Dangote Refinery and other refineries would lead to a drop in the pump price of petrol.

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