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CBN Directs Banks to Allocate 60% of FX Sales to Manufacturers

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King

Desirous of stimulating economic activities in the country, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monday directed commercial banks and other authorised dealers in the foreign exchange (FX) market to ensure that they channel 60 per cent of total FX purchases from all sources (interbank inclusive) to end users strictly for the purpose of importation of raw materials, plant and machinery.

The central bank said it took the decision following its review of returns on the disbursement of FX and observed that a negligible proportion of FX sales were being channelled towards the importation of raw materials for the manufacturing sector.

The CBN gave the directive in a circular signed by its acting Director, Trade and Exchange Department, Mr. W.D. Gotring. The letter dated August 22, 2016, was posted on the central bank’s website.

It said: “Following the review of returns on the disbursement of foreign exchange to end users, it has been observed that a negligible proportion of foreign exchange sales are being channelled towards the importation of raw materials for the manufacturing sector.

“Against this background and in order to address the observed imbalance, authorised dealers are hereby directed to henceforth dedicate 60 per cent of total foreign exchange purchases from all sources (interbank inclusive) to end users strictly for the purpose of importation of raw materials, plant and machinery.

“The balance of 40 per cent should be used to meet other trade obligations, visible and invisible transactions. For the avoidance of doubt, authorised dealers are to continue to publish weekly sales of FX to end users in the national newspapers and to render statutory returns on same to the CBN promptly. Please ensure compliance accordingly, until otherwise advised.”

The President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Frank Jacobs, recently voiced concerns that the FX scarcity and rising cost of funds had sent manufacturing output plunging to below 20 per cent.

But with the directive, analysts said yesterday that manufacturers would be able to get a substantial part of their FX requirements met.

One market observer lauded the CBN for the directive, adding: “The CBN with this directive has prioritised the real sector so that industries can bring in their raw materials, machines and equipment without having to wait for the banks for weeks and months on end to smile their way.

“This means that the banks and authorised dealers will be required to seek out and prioritise their customers who need to bring in raw materials, plant and machinery for production and not the other way round.

“This is bound to have a positive impact on productivity in the manufacturing sector and hopefully will lead to a drop in the prices of goods that they produce.”

In a related development, the President, Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Alhaji Aminu Gwadabe, has said most banks were yet to comply with the CBN’s directive that they sell $50,000 from diaspora remittances to bureau de change (BDC) operators on a weekly basis.

In a statement yesterday, the ABCON boss said only 10 per cent of BDCs from the Lagos market had accessed dollars from banks since the CBN gave the directive nearly three weeks ago.

The banks that have complied include First Bank of Nigeria Limited, Ecobank Nigeria Plc, Fidelity Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc, Unity Bank Plc, Diamond Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc and Stanbic IBTC Bank.

Gwadabe further disclosed that BDCs in Port Harcourt, Kano, Abuja, Onitsha, Maiduguri, Benin and Enugu were yet to buy dollars from banks.

He said the BDCs had been selling dollars between N345 and N355 to dollar, far above the interbank rate, because of the shortfall in supply.

The banks, he added, are supposed to sell to the BDCs on the same day within the week, but failed to do so.

“Instead of staggering the payment, the banks should sell to the BDCs on the same week day, so that the impact will be felt in the market.

“We also want the CBN to license new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to deepen the market.

“Our members across the country have funded their accounts two weeks ago but the banks are not selling to them. The BDCs that met the CBN’s policy guidelines on the disbursement and were cleared by the banks have still not received a dime from the banks,” he said.

Gwadabe called on the CBN to outsource the dollar distribution role to an independent distributor since the banks have failed in their assigned role.

“I think the banks are compromising the policy and CBN’s directive on the matter. And like I said earlier, since the banks are not co-operating, I expect the CBN to take that role from them and assign it to a reputable independent distributor,” he said.

The CBN had directed authorised dealers that are agents of approved IMTOs to sell foreign currency accruing from inward money remittances to licensed BDCs.

The spot rate of the naira appreciated on the interbank FX market to N308.73 to the dollar monday, as against the N316.55 at which it closed last Friday.

The gains made by the naira on the interbank market yesterday were attributed to dollar sales by the central bank to some banks. Traders said the central bank selectively sold dollars to commercial lenders just before the market closed.

The central bank remains the major supplier of dollar in the market and has been selling the greenback almost daily to boost liquidity as the naira continues to search for an equilibrium price.

The CBN ditched its 16-month-old peg on the naira last June and introduced a flexible exchange rate regime to allow the currency to trade freely on the interbank market.

However, on the parallel market, the naira closed at N396 to the dollar yesterday, slightly stronger than the N396.55 to the dollar as of Friday last week.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s search for an end to its dollar shortage woes dimmed yesterday, when oil prices fell more than two per cent from last week’s high, following expectations of more crude shipments from Iraq and Nigeria, coupled with rising US oil rig count and increased Chinese exports.

While Iraq’s plan to increase exports of Kirkuk crude by 150,000 barrels per day this week from northern fields weighed on prices, the weekend’s announcement by the Niger Delta Avengers that it was ready for ceasefire and dialogue with the federal government also raised expectations of oversupply in the international market.

A prolonged ceasefire by the Avengers will potentially lead to the recovery of over 700,000 barrels per day that was shut in due to the attacks on oil facilities by the militant group, thus adding to the oversupply in the market.

Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, said recently that Nigeria would require an additional 900,000 barrels per day to achieve the 2016 production target.

A stronger dollar was also said to have fuelled the price drop, as the currency rose yesterday against other major currencies on increased expectations that the US Fed could raise interest rates this year.

A stronger dollar makes oil, which is priced in dollars, more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing demand.

With the expectations of oversupply weighing on the prices, the global benchmark, Brent crude yesterday was down $1.34, or 2.6 per cent, at $49.54 a barrel, after hitting a two-month high of $51.22 on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude’s most active contract, October, fell $1.28, or 2.5 per cent to $48.32 a barrel, after hitting a six-week high of $49.60 on Friday.

Reuters reported that China’s July diesel and gasoline exports soared 181.8 per cent and 145.2 per cent respectively, from the same month last year, putting pressure on refined product margins.

Citing data from the oil service firm, Baker Hughes, the Wall Street Journal also reported that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US has risen for eight straight weeks.

According to the data, US oil output has fallen for more than a year after companies sharply cut spending on new drilling, but higher oil prices in recent months have prompted some companies to put new rigs to work.

US producers added 32 new rigs in shale-oil regions in August, which could add 200,000 barrels a day of new supply, according to an analyst at SEB Markets.

Oil rallied with few stops over the past two weeks, going from a bear to bull market as it reversed a loss of over 20 per cent in early August on speculation that Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will agree to a production freeze with non-OPEC members.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Energy

Egypt Increases Fuel Prices by 15% Amid IMF Deal

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Petrol - Investors King

Egypt has raised fuel prices by up to 15% as the country looks to cut state subsidies as part of a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The oil ministry announced increases across a variety of fuel products, including gasoline, diesel, and kerosene.

However, fuel oil used for electricity and food-related industries will remain unaffected to protect essential services.

This decision comes after a pricing committee’s quarterly review, reflecting Egypt’s commitment to align with its financial obligations under the IMF pact.

Egypt is in the midst of recalibrating its economy following a massive $57 billion bailout, orchestrated with the IMF and the United Arab Emirates.

The IMF, which has expanded its support to $8 billion, emphasizes the need for Egypt to replace untargeted fuel subsidies with more focused social spending.

This is seen as a crucial component of a sustainable fiscal strategy aimed at stabilizing the nation’s finances.

Effective immediately, the cost of diesel will increase to 11.5 Egyptian pounds per liter from 10.

Gasoline prices have also risen, with 95, 92, and 80-octane types now costing 15, 13.75, and 12.25 pounds per liter, respectively.

Despite the hikes, Egypt’s fuel prices remain among the lowest globally, trailing only behind nations like Iran and Libya.

The latest increase follows recent adjustments to the price of subsidized bread, another key staple for Egyptians, underscoring the government’s resolve to navigate its economic crisis through tough reforms.

While the rise in fuel costs is expected to impact millions, analysts suggest the inflationary effects might be moderate.

EFG Hermes noted that the gradual removal of subsidies and a potential hike in power tariffs could have a relatively limited impact on overall consumer prices.

They predict that the deceleration in inflation will persist throughout the year.

Egypt’s efforts to manage inflation have shown progress, with headline inflation slowing for the fourth consecutive month in June.

This trend offers a glimmer of hope for the government as it strives to balance economic stability with social welfare.

The IMF and Egyptian officials are scheduled to meet on July 29 for a third review of the loan program. Approval from the IMF board could unlock an additional $820 million tranche, further supporting Egypt’s economic restructuring.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rise on U.S. Inventory Draws Despite Global Demand Worries

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Oil

Oil prices gained on Wednesday following the reduction in U.S. crude and fuel inventories.

However, the market remains cautious due to ongoing concerns about weak global demand.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, increased by 66 cents, or 0.81% to $81.67 a barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 78 cents, or 1.01%, to $77.74 per barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a substantial decline in crude inventories by 3.7 million barrels last week, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 1.6-million-barrel draw.

Gasoline stocks also fell by 5.6 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 2.8 million barrels, contradicting predictions of a 250,000-barrel increase.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, described the EIA report as “very bullish,” indicating a potential for future crude draws as demand appears to outpace supply.

Despite these positive inventory trends, the market is still wary of global demand weaknesses. Concerns stem from a lackluster summer driving season in the U.S., which is expected to result in lower second-quarter earnings for refiners.

Also, economic challenges in China, the world’s largest crude importer, and declining oil deliveries to India, the third-largest importer, contribute to the apprehension about global demand.

Wildfires in Canada have further complicated the supply landscape, forcing some producers to cut back on production.

Imperial Oil, for instance, has reduced non-essential staff at its Kearl oil sands site as a precautionary measure.

While prices snapped a three-session losing streak due to the inventory draws and supply risks, the market remains under pressure.

Factors such as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, and China’s economic slowdown, continue to weigh heavily on traders’ minds.

In recent sessions, WTI had fallen 7%, with Brent down nearly 5%, reflecting the volatility and uncertainty gripping the market.

As the industry navigates these complex dynamics, analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring developments that could further impact oil prices.

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Commodities

Economic Strain Halts Nigeria’s Cocoa Industry: From 15 Factories to 5

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cocoa-tree

Once a bustling sector, Nigeria’s cocoa processing industry has hit a distressing low with operational factories dwindling from 15 to just five.

The cocoa industry, once a vibrant part of Nigeria’s economy, is now struggling to maintain even a fraction of its previous capacity.

The five remaining factories, operating at a combined utilization of merely 20,000 metric tons annually, now run at only 8% of their installed capacity.

This stark reduction from a robust 250,000 metric tons reflects the sector’s profound troubles.

Felix Oladunjoye, chairman of the Cocoa Processors Association of Nigeria (COPAN), voiced his concerns in a recent briefing, calling for an emergency declaration in the sector.

“The challenges are monumental. We need at least five times the working capital we had last year just to secure essential inputs,” Oladunjoye said.

Rising costs, especially in energy, alongside a cumbersome regulatory environment, have compounded the sector’s woes.

Farmers, who previously sold their cocoa beans to processors, now prefer to sell to merchants who offer higher prices.

This shift has further strained the remaining processors, who struggle to compete and maintain operations under the harsh economic conditions.

Also, multiple layers of taxation and high energy costs have rendered processing increasingly unviable.

Adding to the industry’s plight are new export regulations proposed by the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC).

Oladunjoye criticized these regulations as duplicative and detrimental, predicting they would lead to higher costs and penalties for exporters.

“These regulations will only worsen our situation, leading to more shutdowns and job losses,” he warned.

The cocoa processing sector is not only suffering from internal economic challenges but also from a tough external environment.

Nigerian processors are finding it difficult to compete with their counterparts in Ghana and Ivory Coast, who benefit from lower production costs and more favorable export conditions.

Despite Nigeria’s potential as a top cocoa producer, with a global ranking of the fourth-largest supplier in the 2021/2022 season, the industry is struggling to capitalize on its opportunities.

The decline in processing capacity and the industry’s current state of distress highlight the urgent need for policy interventions and financial support.

The government’s export drive initiatives, aimed at boosting the sector, seem to be falling short. With the industry facing over N500 billion in tied-up investments and debts, the call for a focused rescue plan has never been more urgent.

The cocoa sector remains a significant part of Nigeria’s economy, but without substantial support and reforms, it risks falling further into disrepair.

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