Transactions in the prime office market in the second quarter of this year reflected the challenges in the economy and market uncertainties, typified by capital and foreign exchange constraints, as well as the cautious stance taken by investors, fuelled the lull in these transactions which saw rents drop.
Demand was so low that landlords had no option but to drop their rents by 6 percents and more, in some locations. Average asking rents for A-grade offices in Ikoyi were on a downward trend, averaging US$850 per square metre per annum. Achievable rents were 8 percent to 15 percent below asking rents.
In Victoria Island (VI), rents eased by 6 percent to an average asking rent of US$780 per square metre per annum, while achievable rents were 10 percent to 20 percent below asking rents.
Besides the capital and foreign exchange constraints, analysts also attribute this development to the Q1:2016 GDP year-on-year growth figure which showed a decline of -0.36 percent, down from 2.11 percent in Q4:2015 and 3.96 percent in Q1: 2015.This, they say, is the lowest GDP growth in 25 years.
“This low growth figure can be largely attributed to the shrinking of the oil, power and manufacturing industries. The continued poor performance of the economy has lingering effects on the office market”, explains Kola Oseni, a research analyst at Broll Nigeria, in a recent report.
Bismarck Rewane, CEO, Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited, agrees, and also attributes the negative decline in GDP to low consumer confidence and spending power, growing unemployment, rising inflation, now estimated at 16.5 percent, etc.
Oseni notes that though activity picked up marginally through corporate relocations, supply in the market continued to significantly outweigh demand, pointing out that this market reality saw landlords extend concessions by way of rent reduction, favourable lease terms and other tenant incentives in a bid to attract corporate occupiers and increase take-up rates.
Obi Nwogugu, Head, Real Estate Investment Unit of Africa Capital Alliance (ACA), affirmed in an interview in Lagos, that the prime office market was experiencing an oversupply and that landlords were doing their best to beat competition and attract tenants.
“We have to deal with the realities (competition) like everyone else and we think that our building is well positioned with good amenities. The floor-plates are very efficient. We have put in place very compelling green features which will make occupancy cost very competitive”, he assured.
Oseni recalls that the slowdown in activity and high vacancy rates recorded in previous quarters pushed landlords to extend even more concessions to tenants. “In addition to rent reductions, landlords have been more willing to provide other incentives such as fit-out allowances which are attractive to tenants deterred by the large capital expenditure needed to furnish space.
“In some instances, landlords have also been willing to furnish the space on offer on tenant’s behalf. Typically, this cost is amortised over the lease term and has been welcomed by tenants who benefit from the considerable reduction in their upfront costs. Some occupiers sought to take advantage of these opportunities by concluding relocations to better quality space in prime buildings”, he disclosed.
The investment market during this period was not encouraging. The market saw low transaction levels and given the prevailing economic conditions, the period for which assets have been on the market continued to increase with little acquisition interest expressed from potential investors.
Oseni reasons that if the current market conditions persist, a sustained period of downward pressure on rents in prime regions such as Ikoyi and VI is envisaged, adding that from a leasing perspective, the devaluation of the naira has seen an increase in effective rents which are typically pegged to the prevailing interbank rate. “In this regard, the pressure on landlords to extend more concessions in order to attract tenants is likely to remain over the short to medium term”, he predicts.
Oil prices have rebounded strongly over the last few days – up around 10% from the lows – buoyed by the prospect of a lower price cap on Russian crude
By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA
We’re seeing green flashing across the board on Thursday, with sentiment buoyed by positive signals on Fed rate hikes and China’s Covid response.
While it could be argued that Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday were relatively balanced – slower tightening now but rates high for longer – the last year has proven that anticipating the path of inflation even a short period ahead is incredibly difficult. Knowing what the Fed intends to do next is far more valuable than what it thinks it may do 6-12 months down the line.
And anything that is perceived to reduce to possibility of an interest rate recession is going to be a positive for equity markets. The Fed has every opportunity to tighten more in the months ahead if the data doesn’t play ball. What’s far more difficult is undoing the damage caused by moving too fast now with little to no visibility on how impactful past tightening has been.
The signals coming from China also look very positive. While we shouldn’t expect a dramatic shift in policy from the leadership, particularly before the March Congress, any modest softening in its Covid-zero policy will and should be welcomed. The approach has been extremely damaging to growth and confidence and the protests highlight how public opinion towards it is changing.
We shouldn’t be naive to the fact that a move away from the policy won’t be easy and there’ll be plenty of setbacks. But it’s certainly a step in the right direction that, along with the measures announced to revive the property market, could put the economy on a much better path.
A huge few days for oil markets
Oil prices have rebounded strongly over the last few days – up around 10% from the lows – buoyed by the prospect of a lower price cap on Russian crude, another large production cut from OPEC+ this weekend, and China’s evolving Covid stance. There remains considerable uncertainty surrounding all of the above though which will likely ensure prices remain volatile going into the weekend. That could carry more risk than normal if the OPEC+ meeting does go ahead as planned on Sunday and the EU hasn’t agreed to the price cap level by the close of play Friday. The range of possibilities on these two things alone is huge which will make rumours and speculation over the coming day or two all the more impactful.
Gold testing range highs
Gold bulls were particularly happy with Powell’s comments on Wednesday with the yellow metal rallying strongly to trade at the upper end of its recent range. It faces strong resistance around $1,780 though which was a significant level of support in the first half of the year. With so much data to come over the next day or so, it may not prove particularly resilient if traders are given further hope that rates will rise more slowly and peak lower.
Some relief for cryptos
The risk relief rally is coming at just the right time for bitcoin, helping it to recover from the lows to trade around $17,000. This is around the highs of the last few weeks since it settled after its latest plunge. Whether it will be enough to revive interest in the cryptocurrency, I’m not sure. The FTX fallout is continuing to weigh heavily on the space and the prospect of more contagion or scandals is hard to ignore.
Oil Revenue into Foreign Reserve Dropped From $3bn Monthly in 2014 to Zero in 2022
The official foreign exchange receipt from crude oil sales into Nigeria’s official reserves has dried up steadily from above US$3.0 billion monthly in 2014 to an absolute zero dollar today, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Godwin Emefiele disclosed.
Speaking at the 57th annual bankers’ dinner organized by the Chartered Institute of bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos, the CBN governor noted that there has been a significant loss in foreign reserves due to the naira’s struggle and the rise in demand for forex.
He added that the sharp increase in the number of Nigerians who are seeking education in foreign countries particularly the UK has resulted in an unprecedented demand for foreign exchange.
According to him, the number of student visas issued to Nigerians by the UK alone has increased from an annual average of about 8,000 visas as of 2020 to nearly 66,000 in 2022.
Emefiele also lamented about the level of crude oil theft in Nigeria which has significantly affected the country’s oil production. He noted that crude oil theft has adversely impacted the Country’s foreign exchange reserves.
Investors King had earlier reported that Nigeria has lost its coveted position as Africa’s largest oil producer after oil production dropped below the mark of 1 million barrels per day.
Nigeria currently trails Angola, Libya and Algeria to the fourth position.
Meanwhile, on the Naira-4-Dollar scheme which the CBN introduced to boost migrant remittances into the Nigerian economy, the CBN governor noted that the scheme has largely been successful.
“I am happy to note that, so far, the Naira-for-Dollar scheme has been successful in increasing remittance inflows through our registered International Money Transfer Organisation (IMTOs),” he said.
Emefiele also noted that the introduction of the National Domestic Card Scheme (NDCS) will help to reduce the operating cost incurred by commercial banks while using foreign cards.
It could be recalled that the CBN earlier announced that it planned to introduce Nigeria-made transactional cards to replace well-known cards such as Visa and MasterCard.
Crude Oil Gained 2% as U.S. Oil Inventories Dipped Last Week
Crude oil appreciated on Tuesday on signs global supply is declining amid better-than-expected optimism on Chinese economic recovery and a weaker dollar.
But the likelihood that OPEC+ will leave output unchanged at its upcoming meeting limited the gains.
Brent crude futures rose $2.06, or 2.48% to $85.09 per barrel by 1044 GMT. The more active February Brent crude contract rose by 2.02% to $85.95.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed $1.69, or 2.16%, to $79.89.
Support followed expectations of tighter crude supply.
U.S. crude oil stocks dropped by 7.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 25, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
Official figures are due from the U.S Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.
And the International Energy Agency expects Russian crude production to be curtailed by some 2 million barrels of oil per day by the end of the first quarter next year, its chief Fatih Birol told Reuters on Tuesday.
On the demand side, further support came from optimism over a demand recovery in China, the world’s largest crude buyer.
China reported fewer COVID-19 infections than on Tuesday, while the market speculated that weekend protests could prompt an easing in travel restrictions.
Guangzhou, a southern city, relaxed COVID prevention rules in several districts on Wednesday.
A fall in the U.S. dollar was also bearish for prices. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated oil contracts cheaper for holders of other currencies, and boosts demand.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak about the economy and labour market on Wednesday, with investors looking for clues about when the Fed will slow the pace of its aggressive interest rate hikes.
Capping gains, the OPEC+ decision to hold its Dec. 4 meeting virtually signals little likelihood of a policy change, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.
“Market fundamentals favour another cut, especially given the uncertainty over China’s COVID situation … Failure to do so risks sparking another selling frenzy,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
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