All it took was a few words from OPEC to encourage oil bulls.
Money managers increased wagers on rising crude prices by the most since January as futures rebounded from a three-month low. Prices jumped after OPEC’s president said Aug. 8 the group will hold informal talks in Algiers next month and Saudi Arabia signaled Aug. 11 it’s prepared to discuss taking action to stabilize markets.
“The statement certainly achieved its purpose,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “The Saudis saw bearish bets had really driven down the prices.”
Talks between OPEC members and other producers may result in action to stabilize the market, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are in “constant deliberations,” according to a statement on OPEC’s website attributed to Mohammed bin Saleh Al-Sada, Qatar’s energy and industry minister and the group’s current president.
Hedge funds bolstered their long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 17,154 futures and options combined during the week ended Aug. 9, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. WTI rose 8.3 percent to $42.77 a barrel in the report week. Prices advanced 1 percent to $44.95 a barrel as of 9:33 a.m. London time on Monday after posting the biggest weekly gain since April.
“The Saudis are very conscious of the financial markets and how they exaggerate price moves,” Yergin said.
Differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran caused the demise of a proposal to freeze production at an April summit in Doha. The kingdom insisted it wouldn’t restrain output without commitments from all OPEC members, including Iran, which has boosted crude production and exports after years of sanctions were lifted in January.
“A freeze may be on the table, maybe more,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA in New York. “The Saudi comments leave the door open to anything, as opposed to Doha where they killed the deal. The fact that the Saudis are open to any action is an important signal. The Iranians have pretty much done what they wanted to do, which will make them more open, and the Saudis seem open as well.”
Refiners around the world will process a record 80.6 million barrels a day of crude this quarter to absorb all-time high production from several Persian Gulf producers, the International Energy Agency said Aug. 11.
“The market is moving towards balance with a huge overhang,” Yergin said. “We see supply and demand roughly in balance, and if there are no additional disruptions prices should be in the mid $50s next year.”
Rising U.S. oil stockpiles and weakening demand from the nation’s refineries may weigh on prices. Crude supplies rose by 1.06 million barrels as of Aug. 5, Energy Information Administration data show. Over the past five years, refiners’ thirst for oil has fallen an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from July to October.
Money managers’ long position in WTI rose to 322,594 futures and options, the highest since May 2015, CFTC data show. Shorts, or bets on falling prices, increased 0.7 percent and were at a record for a second week. Net longs advanced 18 percent, the biggest jump since March.
In other markets, net-bearish bets on gasoline shrank 69 percent to 1,277 contracts. Gasoline futures rose 2.6 percent in the report week. Net-long wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel tumbled 72 percent to 1,984 contracts. Futures advanced 5.7 percent.
Not all analysts are convinced that the Saudi comments will translate into action.
“The Saudi statement could mean anything,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “They said that there will be informal meeting of OPEC members on the sidelines. That could be anything from coffee and cake on a terrace to a closed-door meeting to decide on specific production proposals.”
Africa Day 2022: Energy Key to Ending African Food Crisis – ECP
Energy Capital & Power (ECP) says enhancing investment and development of the African energy sector will help drive the development of the continent.
ECP said this on Wednesday while marking the 2022 Africa Day tagged: The Year of Nutrition. It said “Energy is the backbone of every economy. Energy is a fundamental enabler and key driver of Africa’s development.
“Access to reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy goes beyond simply keeping the lights on, however, but drives industrialisation, agriculture, and infrastructure expansion while improving access to medical, education, and food services,” ECP added.
Africa’s leading investment platform for the energy sector stated that it remains fully focused on enhancing investment and development across the African energy sector, making a strong case for energy as a key driver of food resilience and climate change mitigation.
According to its official report made available to Investors King, ECP revealed that “Africa is facing a mounting food crisis which has only been worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Climate change, political and economic crises, and regional conflict and displacement have resulted in over 346 million people suffering from severe food insecurity while 452 million suffer from moderate food insecurity.
“While this insecurity continues to have significant consequences on the physical, mental and physiological development of the population, the burden of malnutrition transcends into the socioeconomic space, with the Cost of Hunger in Africa Study estimating that African countries are losing the equivalent of between 1.9 and 16.5 per cent of their gross domestic profit due to child under-nutrition. Accordingly, this year’s Africa Day is being celebrated under the theme, ‘Strengthening Resilience in Nutrition and Food Security on the African Continent,’ centered around the need to strengthen agro-food systems and health and social protection systems for the acceleration of human, social and economic capital development,” the statement added.
ECP said it believes that ongoing efforts to achieve net zero hunger can be strengthened through the expansion and improvement of energy systems across Africa. Currently, 65 per cent of Africa’s population relies on subsistence farming, and in order to tackle food insecurity, governments across the continent are looking at deploying large-scale modern agricultural systems, systems which require significant energy at every stage of the production stage.
“By scaling up investment in key energy industries, Africa has the opportunity to address two imminent crises: energy and food insecurity. The correlation between improved energy and food security is evident: by strengthening energy access and affordability, countries can strengthen agro-food systems continent wide, tackling food security and driving socioeconomic growth,” said Laila Bastati, Managing Director, ECP.
The African Development Bank Group’s Board of Directors had on Monday approved a $1.5bn Emergency Food Production Facility to help tackle the global food crisis sparked by the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
Africa’s only AAA-rated financial institution added that the funds will help 20 million African farmers produce an extra 38 million metric tons of food to address growing fears of starvation and food insecurity on the continent.
Refining Sector Accounts For 3% of Global Emission – ARDA
The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has revealed that the refining sector only accounts for 3% of the global energy sector emission.
Oil and Refining Research Analyst, Maryro Mendez, stated this at the second Refining and Specifications Virtual Workshop organised by the ARDA and monitored by Investors King.
According to Mendez, “the refining sector accounts for only three percent of the global energy sector emissions. While refineries’ contribution to global energy sector emissions is low, the opportunities for reducing them are significant.
“Refineries globally have started thinking about measuring, monitoring and reducing carbon emissions and environmental sustainability has to be a priority for refiners and Africa is no exception.”
According to her, because fuel combustion accounts for 80% of refinery carbon emissions, fuel source and energy optimization would provide the greatest chance to minimize emissions.
“The challenge is not technical but is commercial with facilities requiring sufficient incentive and capital to invest without impacting on their competitive position”, she added.
The association further revealed that Nigeria and other African countries would need to minimize sulphur levels while noting that upgrading their existing refineries would require at least $15.7 billion.
Anibor Kragha, ARDA’s Executive Secretary stated that adopting a standardized specification will prevent the importation of fuels that do not match AFRI specifications into Africa.
“New process units required are to improve key fuel specifications, especially Naptha Hydrotreater (NHdT), Diesel Hydro-desulph. (DHDS), Benzene Extraction, Sulphur, and Hydrogen Plants.
“Another key focus area is for African countries, especially those sharing common fuel supply chains to develop an integrated policy covering both fuel quality and vehicle exhaust emissions.
“This is to achieve the ultimate objective of clean air in our African cities. Without this integrated and coordinated policy, the objective of clean air will not be realized whether by imports or local production,” he said.
The idea for an African refinery association was conceived in the late 1970s, and the first sub-Saharan African initiative – the Association of Refiners and Distributors of Oil Products (ARDIP) – was launched in September 1980, led by the SIR refinery in Cote D’Ivoire, with counterpart refineries in Senegal, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ghana, and Gabon.
Mr Joel Dervain, the then Managing Director of SIR, re-activated the campaign for an association to promote technical and commercial best practices among African refiners and their stakeholders in 2006. The African Refiners Association (ARDA) was then created on March 23, 2006 in Cape Town, South Africa, with the help of his colleagues at SONARA, SAR, TOR, SOGARA, and NATREF.
African Energy Chamber to Host Energy Transition Forum at The 2022 Energy Week
African Energy Chamber (AEC) says it will host the Energy Transition Forum, in partnership with public and private sector organisations, government representatives, energy stakeholders and investors in October.
In a statement made available to Investors King AEC stated that “The Energy Transition Forum will address critical issues such as the lack of adequate funding, the diversification of the energy mix, workforce development, and regulatory reforms necessary to enable Africa to expand its energy sector to address energy security, affordability, access, and sustainability matters”.
“With some 600 million people across the continent living in energy poverty and over 900 million without access to clean cooking, Africa needs to exploit all of its vast natural resources in order to make energy poverty history by 2030. In this respect, stakeholders across the continent are opting for an integrated approach to developing energy resources whereby every resource is utilized in order to kickstart economic growth and electrification. With over 125.3 billion barrels of crude oil, 620 trillion cubic feet of gas, and nearly 16.4 billion short tons of coal, the continent is well-positioned to drive economic growth,” it added.
Executive Chairman of the AEC, NJ Ayuk, said: “With nearly 66 per cent of the world’s population living without electricity access based in Africa, the continent needs to ramp up the production of all its energy resources including gas, oil, wind and solar to ensure energy poverty is history by 2030. The AEC is honored to host the Energy Transition Forum at AEW 2022 where an African narrative of a just and inclusive energy transition that is fit for Africa will be developed. We will go from Cape to Cairo with a well-defined African message. Africans and the energy sector have a rare chance to define the narrative and we must.”
The Energy Transition Forum is bringing together investors, regulatory authorities and energy market players to discuss the role of gas in Africa’s energy future and energy transition. The challenges of limited investments in gas exploration, production, and infrastructure development in gas-rich countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Niger, and Mozambique will also be addressed.
According to the AEC, climate change continues to impact Africa, leading to an increasing number of African countries such as Nigeria, Namibia, Morocco, South Africa, Uganda, and Kenya introducing policy reforms and initiatives to scale up renewable energy penetration in Africa.
Investors King gathered that Nigeria has vowed to achieve climate neutrality by 2060 by increasing the share of natural gas and renewables in its energy mix while Namibia aims to make the development of hydrogen central to its energy policy. At the same time, South Africa has introduced its Hydrogen Society Roadmap to fast-forward the development of local content and hydrogen infrastructure whilst Morocco’s Law 13-09 and Egypt’s net metering scheme aims to expand distributed renewables development.
The chamber added that the AEW 2022, under the theme – “Exploring and Investing in Africa’s Energy Future while Driving an Enabling Environment” will feature high-level meetings and panel discussions where government ministers, investors, academia, and energy market stakeholders will discuss how Africa can attract funding to boost exploration, production and infrastructure development to ensure secure supply while remaining a climate champion.
The African Energy Week is scheduled to take place from 18th – 21st October 2022 in South Africa at Africa’s premier event for the oil and gas sector.
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