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Banks Deploy N1.2trn to Govt Securities as Pressure on Exchange Rate Resumes

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Money market activities closed, weekend, with a record N1.2 trillion over subscription to the Nigerian Treasury Bills, NTB, indicating that financial institutions are cashing-in heavily on the recent jerk-up of the Monetary Policy Rates, MPR, by the Monetary Policy Committee, MPC, of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.

The MPR at 14 per cent would give higher returns on investments in fixed income and government securities, with a near zero risk compared to other financial market investments and lendings to other sectors of the economy. The subscription rates for the instruments, last week, ranged from 17–18 per cent.

The investments in NTB were also coming at the backdrop of N256 billion mopped up by the apex bank in its open market operation, OMO, a development which treasury dealers said indicated that CBN’s policy was pro-government securities.

They also said the policy helped reduce demand pressure on foreign exchange market while safeguarding both the exchange rate and the external reserves.

But developments in the inter-bank foreign exchange market, last weekend, indicated a renewed pressure on the exchange rate as demands appeared to be heavily outstripping supply, a situation which forced the apex bank to intervene with supplies twice last week.

Despite the intervention, naira depreciated significantly in the inter-bank spot market, closing at N332.1/USD1.0, weekend, down from N318.9/USD1.0 previous weekend.

Also, the huge cash flow to the government securities, according to the analysts, has led to starving of funds to other sectors of the economy, especially the manufacturing sector as banks now prefer trading in fixed income money market instruments where yields have risen recently with little or no risk.

Senior Analyst at CardinalStone Partners, a Lagos-based investment house, Tiffany Odugwe, said: “Given the currently high interest rate environment following the MPC’s decision to hike the MPR to attract foreign investments, yields may rise throughout August.

“However, at currently attractive levels, healthy demand for these securities may drive yields down but not to significantly lower levels. Also, given the need to manage foreign exchange rate, we do not see the CBN relaxing its tight grip on system liquidity soon, which implies that fixed income yields will likely remain high.”

Also, analysts point to the adverse side effect of this development on the equities market as cash are being redeployed from stock market to money market instruments.

According to Odugwe, “if yields continue to inch upward or even remain at current levels, there will be a crowd out effect on the equities market. Investors will gravitate towards the relatively safer returns that fixed income securities offer and that will mean a continued dismal performance for the equities market.”

Analysts at WSTC Financial Services Limited, another Lagos-based investment house, stated: “We expect attractive yields in the fixed income market to shift investors’ focus from equities.”

Yet some of them also see a steady rise in lending rates as another downside effect of the diversion of funds to government securities.

In their reactions to this money market development analysts at Greenwich Trust Limited, another Lagos-based financial institution, said: “We expect an uptick in lending rates to the real sector from deposit money banks as the MPC has completely reversed course after monetary easing in November 2015, when the MPR was cut from 13.0 per cent to 11.0 per cent failed to generate the credit growth the CBN anticipated.”

Prime lending rates across banks have since gone beyond 20 per cent with other lending rates trending above 30 per cent in the past two weeks.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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