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Non-Oil Sector Growth Drops to -0.36%

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Non oil

Amidst efforts by the Federal Government to diversify the economy from oil, the prospects of earning revenue from the non-oil sector are fast fading, owing to the dismal performance of the sector.

Data from Bloomberg showed that all activities in the non-oil sector recorded varying degrees of declining growth relative to real Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter of 2016.

Specifically, the data indicated that the sector dropped from 2.11 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2015 to -0.36 per cent in the first quarter of 2016.

A further breakdown of the figure showed that in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sub sector, crop production dropped from 3.3 per cent in the Q4, 2015 to three per cent in the Q1 2016; livestock was 5.6 per cent in the Q4 2015, it dropped to 3.9 per cent in the Q1 2016. Forestry fell from four per cent in the Q4 2015 to 2.3 per cent in the Q1 2016. Fishing was 5.4 per cent in the Q4 2015, it dropped to 3.3 per cent in the Q1 2016.

The mining and quarrying, crude petroleum and natural gas sector had a negative decline of -8.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2015; it improved slightly to -1.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2016.

In the sector, coal mining reduced from 7.7 per cent in the Q4 2015 to 3.3 per cent in the Q1 2016. Metal ores increased from 6.9 per cent to 57 per cent while quarrying and other minerals, which stood at 5.6 per cent in the Q4 2015, recorded a negative (-88.9 per cent) in the Q1 2016.

In the manufacturing sector, oil refining maintained a negative of -22.6 per cent in the Q1 2016, the same figure that was recorded for the Q4 2015.

Cement, which witnessed huge growth last year, dropped sharply from a high of 21.3 per cent in the Q4 2015 to a negative of -4.4 per cent in the Q1 2016.

Food, Beverage and Tobacco sector increased in negative growth from -5.6 per cent in the Q4 2015 to -11.1 in the Q1 2016. Textile and apparel, which recorded 2.8 per cent growth in the Q4 2015, declined to -3 per cent.

Chemical and pharmaceutical products declined from 17.2 per cent in the Q4 2015 to 5.9 per cent in the Q1 2016; non-metallic mineral products dipped from 12.7 per cent in the Q4 2015 to 5.5 per cent in the Q1 2016; plastic and rubber products also plummeted from 15.7 per cent in Q4 2015 to 4.8 per cent in Q1 2016.

Wholesale and retail trade also witnessed a decline from 4.7 per cent in the Q4 2015 to two per cent in the Q1 2016.

In general, real GDP growth of the manufacturing sector slowed by 8.39 per cent in the Q1 2016 according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The report added that nominal GDP growth of manufacturing in the Q1 2016 slowed by 2.98 per cent (year-on-year), representing 4.23 per cent points lower from growth recorded in the Q1 2015 and 9.91 per cent points lower from growth in the Q4 2015 as a result of slower growth in 10 of 13 activities in the sector.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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