Forex

Pound Volatility Gauge Climbs as Traders Brace for BOE Rate Cut

Published

8 years ago

August 4, 2016

Sterling has crumbled to a three-decade low against the dollar after the Brexit vote

A measure of overnight potential price swings for the pound against the dollar approached the highest closing level since Britain voted to leave the European Union in June as traders braced for the Bank of England’s policy decision Thursday, which most economists forecast will bring the first interest-rate cut in seven years.

Sterling fell versus all but one of its 16 major peers as swaps pricing showed a 100 percent chance of a rate cut. While all except two of 52 analysts in a Bloomberg survey forecast a reduction, there are a suite of other measures, including an expansion of its bond-purchase program, which the BOE may adopt to tackle a Brexit-induced fallout which are more difficult to predict.

Some economists said they would not rule out the possibility that the BOE will keep its powder dry at this meeting, as it did in July, while awaiting a clearer economic picture.

“There is quite a lot of speculation regarding what the BOE might do today, so the short-term volatility is to be expected,” said Mark Dowding, a London-based partner and money manager at BlueBay Asset Management LLP. “We doubt the BOE would be opposed to the idea of the pound falling further as it would support the growth outlook, which is deteriorating markedly. We see the pound falling to $1.20 or lower by the end of the year.”

Sterling fell 0.3 percent to $1.3287 as of 7:41 a.m. in London. It dropped to a 31-year low of $1.2798 on July 6. The U.K. currency weakened 0.2 percent to 83.85 pence per euro.

Volatility Climbs

Overnight implied volatility for the pound versus the dollar, a measure of anticipated price swings based on options, was at 31 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It touched the highest level on record on June 23, the day of Britain’s EU referendum, and spiked again before the BOE’s July meeting, its first since the historic vote.

The pound has been the biggest loser versus the dollar among major currencies since Britain voted to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc. The Bloomberg Pound Index, which measures the currency against its major peers, has fallen almost 11 percent since the referendum.

Recent economic data suggested Britain’s decision to leave the EU is taking its toll on business confidence and that’s further supported by a report Wednesday that confirmed U.K. services shrank last month at the fastest pace in seven years. Swaps pricing showed a 100 percent chance of a rate cut by the BOE Thursday, compared with about 15 percent before the vote.

“I expect a 25 basis-point rate cut and 100 billion pounds” in QE, said Richard Benson, managing director and co-head of portfolio investment at Millennium Global Investments in London. “However, it is very popular to be fading the BOE and buy the pound. I do not think it’s the correct trade. The post-Brexit depreciation of around 10 percent seems too little to me.”

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 14th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 14th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,520.

Published

5 hours ago

May 14, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 14th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,520.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,500 and sold it at ₦1,480 on Monday, May 13th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,500
Selling Rate: ₦1,480

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 13th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,500.

Published

1 day ago

May 13, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,500.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,470 and sold it at ₦1,460 on Friday, May 10th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,500
Selling Rate: ₦1,480

Forex

Zimbabwe Implements Strict Rules: $14,782 Fine for Violating Official Exchange Rate

Published

4 days ago

May 10, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Zimbabwe, in a bid to stabilize its currency and clamp down on black-market trading, has introduced stringent regulations to penalize individuals and companies found violating the official exchange rate of its new currency, the ZiG.

Under the new rules announced by Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube, offenders will face a hefty fine of 200,000 ZiG or $14,782.

The move comes as the government seeks to enforce the sole use of the official exchange rate, which is determined daily by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe.

The decision to impose such a significant penalty underscores the seriousness with which Zimbabwean authorities are approaching the issue of currency stability.

By cracking down on those who flout the official exchange rate, the government aims to curb the proliferation of parallel markets and ensure the orderly functioning of the economy.

Previously, retailers were required to price their goods within 10% of the official exchange rate to prevent excessive profiteering.

However, this regulation has now been scrapped as it was deemed ineffective in curbing informal trading and maintaining the value of the currency.

The ZiG, introduced on April 5 as a successor to the Zimbabwean dollar, represents the country’s sixth attempt to establish a stable local currency.

Backed by 2.5 tons of gold and approximately $100 million in foreign currency reserves held by the central bank, the ZiG is intended to restore confidence in the nation’s monetary system.

Despite these efforts, the ZiG has faced challenges since its launch, including fluctuations in its value against major currencies.

Trading at 13.53 to the dollar as of Thursday, the currency experienced a record low of 13.67 to the dollar earlier in the week, highlighting the volatility inherent in Zimbabwe’s currency market.

The introduction of strict penalties for violating the official exchange rate reflects Zimbabwe’s determination to maintain control over its currency and stabilize its economy.

However, it remains to be seen how effective these measures will be in addressing the underlying issues contributing to currency instability and informal trading in the country.