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Forex Weekly Outlook July 18 – 22

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Yuan

The US economy substantiated June’s 287,000 payrolls with a solid consumer spending last week, although inflation remains unchanged at 0.2 percent. There were evidences that an  increase in the cost of living cause by surging energy prices will pressure costs in the second half of the year. But with unemployment claims at 254,000 and industrial production rising from -0.3 percent to 0.6 percent, it is right to say the US economy is reasonably improving.

While it is wrong to downplay global risk, it is also nimble to note that Brexit effect in itself is yet to materialize, but that the financial markets are being driven by speculators, this is one of the reasons why the U.K. monetary policy committee held rates at 0.5 percent to assess the situation up until they believed Brexit would have crystallized.

Last week, the world‘s third largest economy, Japan also hinted at stimulus expansion and it’s plans to aid domestic consumption by weakening the yen to boost exports. The market is currently pricing in that possibility as it can be seen in yen pairs.  This week, EURUSD, AUD, and USDCAD top the list for me.

EURUSD

This particular pair has remained relatively stagnant after three attempts to break 1.1185 resistance level and sustain the upward trend started in October 2015. But with the US labor market rebounded — couple with solid consumer spending that erased all Euro-single currency gains against the US dollar last week. The US dollar may finally be heading to 1.0714 support level underscored three weeks ago.

EURUSDWeekly

Click to enlarge

This week I remain bearish on EURUSD as long as 1.1090 resistance level holds.

AUDUSD

In June, Australia added 7,900 jobs down from 19,200 recorded in the previous month. While this is not entirely bad, the continuous gain of Aussie dollar is, especially after Glenn Steven’s comment on the danger of a strong Aussie dollar on the economy. Nevertheless, China’s lackluster economic data further compounded the prospect of the currency after yearly inflation drop to 1.9 percent and trade surplus plunged from 325bn to 311bn. It is only a matter of time before the Aussie economy reflects drop in China’s imports. This I believe will prompt the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points, if not for anything but to halt surging currency and enhance its exports.

AUDUSDDaily

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The US dollar on the other hand has rebounded tremendously, following weak 38,000 jobs reported in May and has since boosted consumer spending with little to zero Brexit effect. This week I am bearish on Aussie dollar, because one, the upward trend started in May has been contained below 0.7700 price level and currently I don’t think the Aussie dollar is attractive enough to break 0.76690 resistance level.  If the 0.7484 support level (below 20-day moving average) is breached, it should pave way for 0.7379 and sustained break should open up 0.7143.

USDCAD

The Canadian economy is weighed on by weak manufacturing sector, but the Bank of Canada left interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent on Wednesday, downplaying the effect of Brexit on the economy even though manufacturing sector is yet to pick up.

USDCADDaily

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From the Chart, this pair has failed to break 1.3142 resistance level after four attempts, but established a sort of range between 1.2849 support level and 1.3142. This week, I am bullish on USDCAD with 1.3142 as the target, a sustainable break should open up 1.3387.

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 22nd, 2024

As of April 22nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,290 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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New Naira Notes

As of April 22nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,290 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,100 and sell it at N1,090 on Friday, April 19th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,290
  • Selling Rate: N1,280

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 19th, 2024

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

on

New Naira Notes

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,020 and sell it at N1,010 on Thursday, April 18th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,100
  • Selling Rate: N1,090

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Naira

Naira’s Recent Gain Reflects Policy Direction, Says CBN Chief Olayemi Cardoso

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has explained that the recent surge in the Naira is a testament to the positive direction of government policies rather than active intervention to defend the currency’s value.

Addressing attendees at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, Governor Cardoso underscored that the CBN’s intention is not to artificially prop up the Naira.

He clarified that the fluctuations observed in the country’s foreign exchange reserves were not aimed at defending the currency but rather aligning with broader economic goals.

Over the past month, the Naira has experienced a notable uptick in value against the dollar, signaling a reversal from previous declines. Data from Bloomberg reveals a 6.4% decrease in liquid reserves since March 18, coinciding with the Naira’s rebound.

Despite this decline, Cardoso pointed out that around $600 million had flowed into the reserves in the past two days, reflecting confidence in the Nigerian market.

Governor Cardoso articulated the CBN’s vision of a market-driven exchange rate system, emphasizing the importance of allowing market forces to determine exchange rates through willing buyers and sellers.

He expressed optimism about a future where the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market would be minimal, except in extraordinary circumstances.

The recent resilience of the Naira follows a period of volatility earlier in the year, marked by a substantial devaluation in January. Since then, the CBN has implemented measures to stabilize the currency, including monetary tightening and initiatives to enhance dollar liquidity.

Cardoso highlighted the transformation in market sentiment, noting that investors now perceive Nigeria’s central bank as committed to stabilizing inflation and fostering economic stability.

As Nigeria continues its journey toward economic recovery and stability, Cardoso’s remarks provide insight into the central bank’s strategy and its impact on the country’s currency dynamics.

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