When it comes to timing the Chinese equity market, stock trader Huang Weimin is hard to beat.
The self-taught hedge fund trader gained more than 6,200 percent by riding the boom and bust in Chinese stock-index futures last year, then returned another 60 percent in the first two months of 2016 by turning bearish before the market tumbled. As Chinese shares meandered over the past four months, he played it safe in cash.
Now, Huang says, the time is right to buy.
The Shanghai Composite Index may rally 18 percent next quarter as a delayed rule change for initial public offerings restricts the supply of shares and authorities keep the yuan stable before its official entry into a global basket of reserve currencies in October, Huang said in an interview. He expects Britain to vote against leaving the European Union on Thursday, removing the biggest international risk to asset prices. Even the unlikely event of a Brexit won’t derail the ascent of Chinese stocks, he said.
“There could be a rare rally for global risk assets across the board,” said Huang, 46, who’s now managing separate accounts for clients after liquidating his hedge fund at the end of February as part of his shift into cash. “The third quarter is very much worthy of a rebound for the market, at home and abroad.”
Huang, a virtual unknown in financial circles until last year, became a star of the Chinese futures market after his Yourong Fund surged to the top spot among 310 private funds tracked by Shenzhen Rongzhi Investment Consultant Co. in 2015. His newfound optimism is shared by a growing number of Chinese hedge funds, which are adding to equity positions even after MSCI Inc. refused to include the nation’s local shares in its benchmark indexes this month.
More than half of domestic hedge funds planned to boost stock holdings in June, compared with 4.6 percent that wanted to cut exposure, according to a survey by Shenzhen Rongzhi released June 6. More than 90 percent of the funds said the MSCI rejection won’t change the course of the market, a separate poll after the announcement showed.
While Huang is turning bullish for the third quarter, he’s less positive about the end of this year and 2017. The Federal Reserve will probably increase interest rates after the U.S. presidential election in November, he said, putting pressure on stocks.
“Before the end of September, the market is in a stability-first mode,” Huang said by phone from Xiamen, in China’s southern Fujian province. “2017 can be risky, when all the support is gone.”
The Shanghai Composite is unlikely to surpass 3,430, or 30 percent above this year’s intraday low of 2,638.30, for the next two to three years, Huang said, citing comparisons with a similar period of range-bound stock movements before a 2005 reform that removed restrictions on previously untradable state-owned shares. The market may reach its high next quarter as the government stabilizes the yuan before its inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights, he said.
Weakness in the Chinese currency last year helped spark a $5 trillion rout in domestic shares, bringing an end to the country’s longest-ever bull market. Mainland stocks have struggled to recover since then, with the Shanghai Composite losing 18 percent this year through Wednesday.
While authorities are planning a new registration-based system for IPOs that would curb the government’s ability to control the pace of share sales, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Shiyu said in March that policy makers need more time to prepare the rules. More than 800 Chinese companies have applications pending for IPOs.
The nation’s top legislature has granted a two-year window to amend the IPO system, which has given the stock market a reprieve, Huang said. Once it becomes clear that a change is imminent, likely sometime next year, the Shanghai gauge could drop to as low as 2,000, Huang said. He also cited other concerns such as swelling local government debt and a growing number of defaults.
For now, though, Huang is bullish. Among his top picks are agriculture and chemical stocks, which he anticipates will benefit from a rally in commodities.
“I’m expecting some handsome profits in the third quarter.”
Naira Stabilizes at N415/$1 at Official Fx Window
The Nigerian currency has continued its trend of closing at N415 per dollar, after it settled to close at that price (which it has closed at consistently since Friday) on Tuesday. This is according to data gathered from the Investors and Exporters window where the Naira is traded officially.
It seems to appear that the Naira has found its resting place at this price, considering the number of days at which it has closed at that particular price. It is now left to see how this currency will trade closer to the festive period.
However, this ‘stability’ cannot be held as a permanent thing, because for this price to be the new normal, it may have to be maintained over a longer period of time. The Central Bank of Nigeria should be making moves to bring the value of the naira back up again, to make things better for Nigerians and Nigeria especially as we approach the Christmas period.
The FMDQ group’s updates of the Spot and Forward exchange rates showed slight changes here and there, with nothing too heavy. The Spot rate did not see any changes from Monday, as it maintained the high of N405 per dollar and a low of N465.97 per dollar.
The Forward rate however witnessed a jump, with Tuesday’s high jumping back to N411 per dollar from N452 per dollar where it sat on Monday. The lowest of the Forward rate further fell to N457 per dollar from the N453 per dollar where it was on Monday.
Those who would benefit the most from Tuesday’s trading round are those who agreed on future deals at prices between N411 and N415 per dollar.
The daily turnover recorded by the FMDQ group on Tuesday sat at $152.98 million, more than $100 million less than the $256 million which Monday recorded.
On Tuesday, the parallel market saw the Naira trade at N565 per dollar. The Central Bank has however stated that it does not reckon with the parallel market.
CBN Decentralises Form A, Introduces e-Form A to Improve Invincible Transactions
In an effort to improve access to foreign exchange and facilitate invincible forex transactions, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has decentralised access to Form A by introducing an electronic version, e-Form A, for all.
The CBN disclosed this in a circular titled ‘Automation of Form ‘A’ on the Trade Monitoring System’.
The e-Form A will now replace the hard copy for all invincible transactions, PTA/BTA, medicals, education, other remittances, with effect from Tuesday, 30 November 2021.
Understanding Form A
Form A allows forex customers under the invincible category to purchase/access forex at the CBN or interbank rate to make payments for eligible services as predetermined by the Foreign exchange manual.
Therefore, Form A is a form made available by the Central Bank of Nigeria to pay for foreign exchange transactions and other remittances as stated above.
CBN has now decentralised form A to allow more people to access forex at the apex bank predetermined rate and also for proper monitoring of forex transactions, this will allow CBN better curb forex diversion to ineligible items or restricted items.
Customers are required to have a valid Bank Verification Number (BVN) and pay N5,000 as fee for e-Form A application.
Read the CBN circular “This is to inform all authorized dealers and the general public of the deployment of e-Form ‘A’.
“Accordingly, the e-Form ‘A’ shall replace the hard copy of Form ‘A’ for invincible transactions [PTA/BTA, medicals, education, other remittances etc.]with effect from November 30, 2021.
“Consequently, all authorized dealers are required to ensure that the processing of Form ’A’ shall only be done electronically on the Trade Monitoring System accessible at www.tradesystem.gov.ng.
“The general public is required to obtain a valid Bank Verification Number (BVN) from their authorized dealer Banks. The BVN is a prerequisite for customers to access the Trade System for e-Form ‘A’ application.
“The e-Form ‘A’ is web-based and allows the general public to initiate the Form from their offices/homes and submit same to the authorized dealer bank.
“A charge of N5,000 (Five Thousand Naira) as fee per declaration of e-Form ‘A’ is applicable with effect from November 30, 2021, and henceforth. There will be a direct debit from the processing bank’s current account for each declaration which should be recovered the charge on the customer by the bank. However, customers for the e-Form ‘A’ should be separated from other bank charges.”
“All hard copies of Forms ‘A’ established on or before November 2 2021 (prior to the commencement of the e-Form ‘A’) shall be utilized within 15 working days of the establishment of the Form.
“For the avoidance of doubt, all established hard copies of Forms ‘A’ for which disbursement had not been made within the transition period of 15 working days shall be deemed cancelled.
“All authority dealer banks are enjoined to inform their customers of the development for compliance.”
Naira Maintains Stability at Official Fx Window
The Naira maintained its streak on Monday, settling to close at N415.07 per dollar. This is the same price at which the Nigerian currency has closed for the last few days, according to the Investors and Exporters window where the Naira is traded officially.
While there have been very marginal differences in the opening prices over the last days, in the end the currency has come around to settle down at the same price (N415.07 per dollar) at the close of each day.
On Friday, the Naira opened at N413.71 per dollar which represented a 0.03% change from the previous day, according to the Investors and Exporters window. On Monday, the currency opened at a similar price, starting the day off at N413.75 per dollar.
Although there have been minimal changes in the opening prices, generally the currency opens at similar prices, with backgrounds of N413 per dollar and changes of only a few kobo.
While the general opening and closing prices didn’t witness much change, the same cannot be said for the Spot and Forward rates. On Friday, the Spot rate was between N404 per dollar and N444 per dollar. However, Monday saw a significant change in the Spot rate. Across all transactions that occurred on Monday, the naira reached a high of only N405 per dollar (N1 lower than Friday’s high), and went on to reach a low of N456.97 per dollar (N12 lower than the previous day).
The Forward rate – for future transactions that were agreed upon on Monday – saw a more significant change. Friday’s Forward rate high was recorded at N411 per dollar, but on Monday that fell greatly to N452 per dollar. However, Monday’s Forward rate lowest was N453 per dollar, about N2 better than the N455 per dollar at which it traded on Friday.
The total turnover of the dollar recorded on Monday sat at $256.69 million. This was considerably higher than the turnover of $215 million that was recorded on Friday.
At the parallel market on Monday, the Naira fell to close at N569 per dollar from the N560 per dollar at which it traded the previous day. After that exponential rise to about N535 per dollar, the parallel market is seeing the Naira return even closer to the N575 per dollar price at which it had sat for a while.
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