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Stock Trader Who Made 6,200% in China Isn’t Worried About Brexit

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Yuan

When it comes to timing the Chinese equity market, stock trader Huang Weimin is hard to beat.

The self-taught hedge fund trader gained more than 6,200 percent by riding the boom and bust in Chinese stock-index futures last year, then returned another 60 percent in the first two months of 2016 by turning bearish before the market tumbled. As Chinese shares meandered over the past four months, he played it safe in cash.

Now, Huang says, the time is right to buy.

The Shanghai Composite Index may rally 18 percent next quarter as a delayed rule change for initial public offerings restricts the supply of shares and authorities keep the yuan stable before its official entry into a global basket of reserve currencies in October, Huang said in an interview. He expects Britain to vote against leaving the European Union on Thursday, removing the biggest international risk to asset prices. Even the unlikely event of a Brexit won’t derail the ascent of Chinese stocks, he said.

“There could be a rare rally for global risk assets across the board,” said Huang, 46, who’s now managing separate accounts for clients after liquidating his hedge fund at the end of February as part of his shift into cash. “The third quarter is very much worthy of a rebound for the market, at home and abroad.”

Huang, a virtual unknown in financial circles until last year, became a star of the Chinese futures market after his Yourong Fund surged to the top spot among 310 private funds tracked by Shenzhen Rongzhi Investment Consultant Co. in 2015. His newfound optimism is shared by a growing number of Chinese hedge funds, which are adding to equity positions even after MSCI Inc. refused to include the nation’s local shares in its benchmark indexes this month.

More than half of domestic hedge funds planned to boost stock holdings in June, compared with 4.6 percent that wanted to cut exposure, according to a survey by Shenzhen Rongzhi released June 6. More than 90 percent of the funds said the MSCI rejection won’t change the course of the market, a separate poll after the announcement showed.

Fed Risk

While Huang is turning bullish for the third quarter, he’s less positive about the end of this year and 2017. The Federal Reserve will probably increase interest rates after the U.S. presidential election in November, he said, putting pressure on stocks.

“Before the end of September, the market is in a stability-first mode,” Huang said by phone from Xiamen, in China’s southern Fujian province. “2017 can be risky, when all the support is gone.”

The Shanghai Composite is unlikely to surpass 3,430, or 30 percent above this year’s intraday low of 2,638.30, for the next two to three years, Huang said, citing comparisons with a similar period of range-bound stock movements before a 2005 reform that removed restrictions on previously untradable state-owned shares. The market may reach its high next quarter as the government stabilizes the yuan before its inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights, he said.

Weakness in the Chinese currency last year helped spark a $5 trillion rout in domestic shares, bringing an end to the country’s longest-ever bull market. Mainland stocks have struggled to recover since then, with the Shanghai Composite losing 18 percent this year through Wednesday.

While authorities are planning a new registration-based system for IPOs that would curb the government’s ability to control the pace of share sales, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Shiyu said in March that policy makers need more time to prepare the rules. More than 800 Chinese companies have applications pending for IPOs.

The nation’s top legislature has granted a two-year window to amend the IPO system, which has given the stock market a reprieve, Huang said. Once it becomes clear that a change is imminent, likely sometime next year, the Shanghai gauge could drop to as low as 2,000, Huang said. He also cited other concerns such as swelling local government debt and a growing number of defaults.

For now, though, Huang is bullish. Among his top picks are agriculture and chemical stocks, which he anticipates will benefit from a rally in commodities.

“I’m expecting some handsome profits in the third quarter.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, March 8, 2021

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Nigeria 500 naira notes

Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, March 8, 2021

Naira opened weak at N482 against the United States Dollar on Monday, March 8, 2021 despite the central bank’s latest initiative to start paying diaspora remittance recipients N5 per every $1 received.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
08/03/2021 475/482 670/675 578/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 577/582 60/68 385/395 382/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
08/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
3/5/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
3/5/2021 POUNDS STERLING 523.6264 524.3172 525.008
3/5/2021 EURO 452.3744 452.9712 453.568
3/5/2021 SWISS FRANC 408.2732 408.8118 409.3504
3/5/2021 YEN 3.495 3.4996 3.5042
3/5/2021 CFA 0.6762 0.6862 0.6962
3/5/2021 WAUA 543.4484 544.1653 544.8823
3/5/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.3831 58.4606 58.5381
3/5/2021 RIYAL 101.0209 101.1541 101.2874
3/5/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 24.7576 24.7903 24.823

 

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Naira

Diaspora Remittances: CBN Starts Paying N5 for Every $1 Received

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Global debt

CBN to Pay  Receivers of Diaspora Remittances N5 for Every $1 Received

In a desperate move to encourage diaspora remittances, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced the ‘CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme’ to pay diaspora remittance recipients.

In the apex bank latest circular directed to all Deposit Money Banks, International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) and the General Public on Sunday, the central bank said the move was to encourage inflows of diaspora remittances.

It said “In an effort to sustain the encouraging increase in inflows of diaspora remittances into the country, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) hereby announces the introduction of the “CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme”, an incentive for senders and recipients of international Money Transfers.

“Accordingly, all recipients of diaspora remittances through CBN licensed IMTOs shall henceforth be paid N5 for every USD1 received as remittance inflow.

The new CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme was introduced after the apex bank failed to attract enough diaspora remittances following the November 2020 declaration that recipients of diaspora remittances can now receive their funds in US Dollars.

However, because of the negative impact of COVID-19 on diaspora Nigerians, remittances to Africa’s largest economy plunged in 2020 and has remained below CBN’s projected $1.8 billion to $2 billion per month. The idea was to flood the economy with about $20 billion yearly diaspora remittance.

Therefore, the central bank was forced to introduce a new initiative gear towards luring diaspora remittances into the economy to complement dwindling foreign reserves caused by the weak crude oil production of 1.4 million barrels per day and the generally weak revenue generation.

The weak fiscal buffer amid persistent dollar scarcity that has plunged the Naira value against global counterparts is forcing the apex bank to take obvious desperate moves to sustain Nigeria’s weak economic recovery.

Nigeria’s economy unexpectedly rebounded from the recession with a 0.11 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 despite manufacturing and other key sectors still contracting.

The central bank said “In light of this, the CBN shall, through commercial banks, pay to remittance recipients the incentive of N5 for every USD1 remitted by sender and collected by designated beneficiary. This incentive is to be paid to recipients whether they choose to collect the USD as cash across the counter in a bank or transfer same into their domiciliary account.

“In effect, a typical recipient of diaspora remittances will, at the point of collection, receive not only the USD sent from abroad but also the additional N5 per USD received.”

The apex bank added the new initiative will take effect today, March 8, 2021.

Please note having discussed with banks and IMTOs, the scheme takes effect from Monday 8 March 2021 and ends on Saturday 08 May 2021,” CBN stated.

Download the circular here naira4dollar.

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Friday, March 5, 2021

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naira

Naira Exchange Rates; Friday, March 5, 2021

Naira remained pressured across key foreign exchange markets on Friday, March 5, 2021 as scarcity persists. The local currency traded at N480 to a United States Dollar at the parallel market on Friday morning while it exchanged at N675 to a British Pound and N582 to the European common currency.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 575/582 60/68 385/395 382/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

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