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Forex Weekly Outlook June 20 – 24

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Forex weekly outlook

Forex Weekly Outlook June 20 – 24

 

Global financial uncertainties continued this week, after data showed inspite of growing US economy the slowdown in job market weigh on growth. The British referendum is also in focus as the Britain go to the poll on Thursday 23 of June to decide their membership in the European Union.

Here is the highlight of last week.

US – The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged citing global growth concerns and UK’s EU referendum uncertainties, a move that drove the dollar lower against its counterparts. Even after predicting the economy will still grow 2 percent this year but 0.1 percent lower than previously forecast 2017 growth rate.

UK – The pound rose about 1 percent on Friday after campaign for the Brexit referendum was suspended on Thursday following the killing of Jo Cox, a Labour Party member and supporter of EU membership.

NZ – New Zealand economy rebounded once again with a better than expected GDP, amid escalating Auckland housing market. Although, economic growth was below 0.9 percent recorded previously, still better than 0.5 percent predicted by economists. The Kiwi climbed as high as 71.46 cents against the US dollar, its highest in over a year.

Japan – The Bank of Japan continues its struggle with the surging yen and has reiterated its readiness to intervene in what Japan Financial Minister Taro Aso described as one sided move that is hurting their economy. The yen gained against the US dollar reaching two year low on Friday.

Australia – Unemployment rate remains the same 5.7 percent in May and labour market added 17,900 part-time jobs, but the Aussie dollar failed to respond likewise after National Australia Bank (NAB) data showed business confidence dropped from 5 to 3 in May, suggesting businesses are worried about sustainability.

Canada – Canadian economy is still yet to find its rhythm after Alberta wildfire disrupted oil production, though the unemployment rate improved from 7.1 percent to 6.9 percent, the inflation rate plunged to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent in May. The loonie lost 65 percent of its last week gain against the US dollar after peaking at 1.3084, below 1.3142 resistance level.

This week, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US Fed Chair Yellen Testifies, US Core Durable Goods Orders, German Ifo Business Climate and of course EU Membership Vote top the list. This week I will be looking at GBPCAD, EURGBP, and GBPCHF.

GBPCAD

Once again referendum outcome will determine GBP price direction this week, but with current situation and emotional sentiment created by the murder of Jo Cox, I am leaning towards “stay” vote even more.

Last week, I said in a group “This week, I am bullish on Yen, Dollar and bearish on Aussie but wary of GBP even with Brexit leading, I am sure they are not going to leave the EU just yet and I expect GBP to hit some real high price level as it becomes obvious”. That was on 7th Monday before Thursday incident.

Forex weekly outlook

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Prior to that, we’ve been selling GBPCAD since June 6, when the price was around 1.8745, but last week after failing to sustain a break of 1.8117 support level and forming a double bottom candlestick/bullish engulfing pattern that further validated 1.8117 as a solid support, and also confirm bullish run. This week as long as price remain above 1.8480 I am bullish on GBPCAD with 1.8745 as the first target. A vote in favour of Brexit will invalidate this view.

GBPCHF

This pair has called a bottom at 1.3413 in April when it failed to sustain a breach of 1.3507 support level and eventually breaking the downward trend on the 19th of the same month before hitting a 9-week low (high-lows) on Thursday last week. This week I remain bullish on GBPCHF after breaking 1.3926 previous resistance level for similar reasons I stated above a close above 1.3926 should open up 1.4197.

Forex weekly outlook

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EURGBP

Euro-area economy is still struggling, so is the UK but the single 19-nation currency has been more favoured with Brexit uncertainties when compared with the pound. The Euro-area economic data does not support the current bullish run of this pair and as always, a disparity in market price and economic data is alarming. This week as long as price remain below 0.7846 I am bearish on EURGBP, while targeting 0.7600. Please keep an eye on Brexit.

Forex weekly outlook

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CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, March 8, 2021

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Nigeria 500 naira notes

Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, March 8, 2021

Naira opened weak at N482 against the United States Dollar on Monday, March 8, 2021 despite the central bank’s latest initiative to start paying diaspora remittance recipients N5 per every $1 received.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
08/03/2021 475/482 670/675 578/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 577/582 60/68 385/395 382/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
08/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
3/5/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
3/5/2021 POUNDS STERLING 523.6264 524.3172 525.008
3/5/2021 EURO 452.3744 452.9712 453.568
3/5/2021 SWISS FRANC 408.2732 408.8118 409.3504
3/5/2021 YEN 3.495 3.4996 3.5042
3/5/2021 CFA 0.6762 0.6862 0.6962
3/5/2021 WAUA 543.4484 544.1653 544.8823
3/5/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.3831 58.4606 58.5381
3/5/2021 RIYAL 101.0209 101.1541 101.2874
3/5/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 24.7576 24.7903 24.823

 

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Naira

Diaspora Remittances: CBN Starts Paying N5 for Every $1 Received

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Global debt

CBN to Pay  Receivers of Diaspora Remittances N5 for Every $1 Received

In a desperate move to encourage diaspora remittances, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced the ‘CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme’ to pay diaspora remittance recipients.

In the apex bank latest circular directed to all Deposit Money Banks, International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) and the General Public on Sunday, the central bank said the move was to encourage inflows of diaspora remittances.

It said “In an effort to sustain the encouraging increase in inflows of diaspora remittances into the country, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) hereby announces the introduction of the “CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme”, an incentive for senders and recipients of international Money Transfers.

“Accordingly, all recipients of diaspora remittances through CBN licensed IMTOs shall henceforth be paid N5 for every USD1 received as remittance inflow.

The new CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme was introduced after the apex bank failed to attract enough diaspora remittances following the November 2020 declaration that recipients of diaspora remittances can now receive their funds in US Dollars.

However, because of the negative impact of COVID-19 on diaspora Nigerians, remittances to Africa’s largest economy plunged in 2020 and has remained below CBN’s projected $1.8 billion to $2 billion per month. The idea was to flood the economy with about $20 billion yearly diaspora remittance.

Therefore, the central bank was forced to introduce a new initiative gear towards luring diaspora remittances into the economy to complement dwindling foreign reserves caused by the weak crude oil production of 1.4 million barrels per day and the generally weak revenue generation.

The weak fiscal buffer amid persistent dollar scarcity that has plunged the Naira value against global counterparts is forcing the apex bank to take obvious desperate moves to sustain Nigeria’s weak economic recovery.

Nigeria’s economy unexpectedly rebounded from the recession with a 0.11 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 despite manufacturing and other key sectors still contracting.

The central bank said “In light of this, the CBN shall, through commercial banks, pay to remittance recipients the incentive of N5 for every USD1 remitted by sender and collected by designated beneficiary. This incentive is to be paid to recipients whether they choose to collect the USD as cash across the counter in a bank or transfer same into their domiciliary account.

“In effect, a typical recipient of diaspora remittances will, at the point of collection, receive not only the USD sent from abroad but also the additional N5 per USD received.”

The apex bank added the new initiative will take effect today, March 8, 2021.

Please note having discussed with banks and IMTOs, the scheme takes effect from Monday 8 March 2021 and ends on Saturday 08 May 2021,” CBN stated.

Download the circular here naira4dollar.

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Friday, March 5, 2021

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naira

Naira Exchange Rates; Friday, March 5, 2021

Naira remained pressured across key foreign exchange markets on Friday, March 5, 2021 as scarcity persists. The local currency traded at N480 to a United States Dollar at the parallel market on Friday morning while it exchanged at N675 to a British Pound and N582 to the European common currency.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
05/03/2021 475/480 670/675 575/582 60/68 385/395 382/300
04/03/2021 475/480 665/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
03/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
02/03/2021 475/480 662/672 574/580 60/68 385/395 382/300
01/03/2021 475/482 662/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
26/02/2021 475/482 660/672 575/583 60/68 385/395 382/300
25/02/2021 475/480 660/670 572/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
05/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
04/03/2021 470/480 662/672 570/580
03/03/2021 470/480 662/670 573/580
02/03/2021 470/480 660/669 573/580
01/03/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
26/02/2021 470/480 660/669 574/580
25/02/2021 470/480 658/665 574/580
24/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

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