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Forex Weekly Outlook June 20 – 24

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Forex weekly outlook

Forex Weekly Outlook June 20 – 24

 

Global financial uncertainties continued this week, after data showed inspite of growing US economy the slowdown in job market weigh on growth. The British referendum is also in focus as the Britain go to the poll on Thursday 23 of June to decide their membership in the European Union.

Here is the highlight of last week.

US – The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged citing global growth concerns and UK’s EU referendum uncertainties, a move that drove the dollar lower against its counterparts. Even after predicting the economy will still grow 2 percent this year but 0.1 percent lower than previously forecast 2017 growth rate.

UK – The pound rose about 1 percent on Friday after campaign for the Brexit referendum was suspended on Thursday following the killing of Jo Cox, a Labour Party member and supporter of EU membership.

NZ – New Zealand economy rebounded once again with a better than expected GDP, amid escalating Auckland housing market. Although, economic growth was below 0.9 percent recorded previously, still better than 0.5 percent predicted by economists. The Kiwi climbed as high as 71.46 cents against the US dollar, its highest in over a year.

Japan – The Bank of Japan continues its struggle with the surging yen and has reiterated its readiness to intervene in what Japan Financial Minister Taro Aso described as one sided move that is hurting their economy. The yen gained against the US dollar reaching two year low on Friday.

Australia – Unemployment rate remains the same 5.7 percent in May and labour market added 17,900 part-time jobs, but the Aussie dollar failed to respond likewise after National Australia Bank (NAB) data showed business confidence dropped from 5 to 3 in May, suggesting businesses are worried about sustainability.

Canada – Canadian economy is still yet to find its rhythm after Alberta wildfire disrupted oil production, though the unemployment rate improved from 7.1 percent to 6.9 percent, the inflation rate plunged to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent in May. The loonie lost 65 percent of its last week gain against the US dollar after peaking at 1.3084, below 1.3142 resistance level.

This week, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US Fed Chair Yellen Testifies, US Core Durable Goods Orders, German Ifo Business Climate and of course EU Membership Vote top the list. This week I will be looking at GBPCAD, EURGBP, and GBPCHF.

GBPCAD

Once again referendum outcome will determine GBP price direction this week, but with current situation and emotional sentiment created by the murder of Jo Cox, I am leaning towards “stay” vote even more.

Last week, I said in a group “This week, I am bullish on Yen, Dollar and bearish on Aussie but wary of GBP even with Brexit leading, I am sure they are not going to leave the EU just yet and I expect GBP to hit some real high price level as it becomes obvious”. That was on 7th Monday before Thursday incident.

Forex weekly outlook

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Prior to that, we’ve been selling GBPCAD since June 6, when the price was around 1.8745, but last week after failing to sustain a break of 1.8117 support level and forming a double bottom candlestick/bullish engulfing pattern that further validated 1.8117 as a solid support, and also confirm bullish run. This week as long as price remain above 1.8480 I am bullish on GBPCAD with 1.8745 as the first target. A vote in favour of Brexit will invalidate this view.

GBPCHF

This pair has called a bottom at 1.3413 in April when it failed to sustain a breach of 1.3507 support level and eventually breaking the downward trend on the 19th of the same month before hitting a 9-week low (high-lows) on Thursday last week. This week I remain bullish on GBPCHF after breaking 1.3926 previous resistance level for similar reasons I stated above a close above 1.3926 should open up 1.4197.

Forex weekly outlook

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EURGBP

Euro-area economy is still struggling, so is the UK but the single 19-nation currency has been more favoured with Brexit uncertainties when compared with the pound. The Euro-area economic data does not support the current bullish run of this pair and as always, a disparity in market price and economic data is alarming. This week as long as price remain below 0.7846 I am bearish on EURGBP, while targeting 0.7600. Please keep an eye on Brexit.

Forex weekly outlook

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Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Dollar

Dollar Hits Four-Month Low as Rate Cut Speculations Grow

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Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 - 10

The US dollar extended its decline, reaching the lowest level since early August as swap traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut as early as May.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index registered its fifth consecutive day of losses, reflecting concerns about a potential recession and dovish comments from the Fed that are prompting investors to speculate on a reversal of the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle.

Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., Win Thin, emphasized the dollar’s vulnerability, stating, “The dollar remains vulnerable until we see a shift in market expectations for the Fed, and that may be a 2024 story.”

He added, “With the dollar rally stalled, it will take some firm real sector data to challenge the current dovish Fed narrative.”

Amid these developments, the New Zealand dollar led gains among Group-of-10 peers, propelled by the central bank’s warning of potential rate hikes in the coming year.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen strengthened to a two-month high as concerns about elevated US rates diminished.

The prevailing narrative suggests that unless there is a notable change in market expectations for the Fed, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure, with potential shifts anticipated in 2024.

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Naira

Black Market Exchange Rate Today 28th November 2023

What is the Dollar to Naira exchange rate at the parallel market, known as the black market (Abokifx) today? As of November 28th, 2023, the dollar to naira exchange rate is 1 USD to 1157 NGN at the black market.

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New Naira notes

What is the Dollar to Naira exchange rate at the parallel market, known as the black market (Abokifx) today? As of November 28th, 2023, the dollar to naira exchange rate is 1 USD to 1157 NGN at the black market.

This means that for every one US dollar, you can exchange it for ₦1157, Investors King reports.

This digital business news platform has obtained the official dollar to naira exchange rate in Nigeria today including the Black Market rates, Bureau De Change (BDC) rate, and CBN rates.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

This rate is subject to change depending on a variety of factors including global economic trends, political developments, and market fluctuations. However, you can buy and sell 1 USD at ₦1157 and ₦1153 as of the time of writing today.

What is the current exchange rate of the dollar to naira in the black market today?

According to Investors King, as of the time this report was filed, a dollar can be purchased at the Lagos parallel market (black market) for ₦1157 and sold for ₦1153.

Exchange Rate of Dollar To Naira in Black Market Today?

Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Selling Rate 1153
Buying Rate 1157

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Naira Exchange Rates for Banks

Investors King understands that although the dollar to naira opened at N1157 per $1 in the parallel market today, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the parallel market, also referred to as the black market. The CBN has instructed individuals in need of forex to approach their bank as the I&E window is the sole recognized exchange.

On Tuesday, November 28th, 2023, individuals in the black market purchased one US dollar for N1157 and sold it for N1153. This shows that the value of the Naira declined when compared to Monday, November 27th, 2023 when the local currency was exchanged at N1155 to a Dollar and a Dollar was purchased at N1145.

To stay informed about the dollar to naira exchange rate, there are a number of reliable sources that you can turn to. Here are some tips for staying up-to-date:

  • Check the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website: The CBN is responsible for regulating the country’s monetary policy and is a reliable source for the latest exchange rates. You can check their website regularly for updates.
  • Follow financial news outlets: Financial news outlets such as Investors King, Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC provide regular updates on the global currency markets, including the dollar to naira exchange rate.
  • Use online currency converters: There are a number of online currency converters that allow you to quickly and easily check the exchange rate between the dollar and the naira.
  • Follow social media accounts of financial experts: Following social media accounts of financial experts such as analysts, economists, and financial advisors can give you valuable insights into the latest trends in the currency markets.

By staying informed about the dollar-to-naira exchange rate, you can make informed decisions when buying or selling foreign currencies. Whether you are a business owner looking to trade in foreign currencies or an individual looking to invest in the currency markets, knowledge of the latest exchange rates is key to success. Keep these tips in mind and stay informed about the latest trends in the global currency markets.

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Dollar

Dollar Declines Amid Rising Optimism on Fed Rate Cut Prospects

Global Markets React to Growing Confidence in Fed’s Cautious Stance

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U.S dollar - Investors King

The dollar faced a fourth consecutive day of decline, setting it on course for its worst month since November last year.

This trend is bolstered by increasing optimism among traders regarding the Federal Reserve’s trajectory toward rate cuts.

The South Korean won and Thai baht led the gains in Asia, with the won experiencing its most significant jump in almost two weeks.

Simultaneously, Treasuries stabilized after a previous rally, with yields on the two-year note, sensitive to the Fed’s rate path, hitting a one-week low.

The market sentiment reflects a broader positive outlook, with Wall Street forecasters becoming more upbeat about the prospects for the coming year.

Improved investor sentiment and reduced expectations of a recession have fueled this optimism, along with the belief that the Fed has completed its rate-hiking cycle, prompting a rally in the S&P 500.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, cautioned about the potential consequences of rate cuts, stating, “If the market is right in expecting that rate cuts could start maybe even at the end of the first quarter, in the first half, that would require to some degree a weaker economic and labor market backdrop than what we’re seeing right now.”

Despite the positive market sentiment, concerns about the economic and labor market backdrop persist.

The Bloomberg US Treasury Index has turned positive for the year, reflecting slowing inflation and measured job growth that triggered a rally and sent yields plummeting.

Traders are closely monitoring economic data this week, including the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation.

Also, corporate earnings reports from prominent firms such as Crowdstrike Holdings Inc., Salesforce Inc., and Dell Technologies Inc. will provide insights into the evolving landscape of cybersecurity priorities and corporate expenditure.

The Fed’s expressed concern about inflation persisting above the 3% target adds a layer of complexity to the market’s reaction, as analysts anticipate potential pushback against implied easing and the recent rally in bonds and shares.

As investors navigate through these evolving dynamics, gold remains stable near its highest level since May, supported by lower Treasury yields and expectations of impending Fed interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, oil prices extend their decline as the market weighs the possibility of deeper output cuts from OPEC+ against signs of supply outpacing demand.

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