Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook May 30 – June 3

Published

8 years ago

May 30, 2016

The U.S. dollar continues its run after data showed first quarter GDP growth was higher than previously estimated, and revised upward from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent. Also, unemployment claims post moderate decline to 268,000 from 278,000, beating economists forecast of 275,000. While this is not bad, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday said an interest rate hike is “Probably appropriate in the coming months“. This is a big statement considering the fact that the market has already priced in the possibility of a June rate hike, and as more investors come to terms with the possibility of unchanged rate in June I expect US dollar to lose some gains. And even more as the odds changes. So I am going to pay attention to the US dollar differently this week, especially with Unemployment rate, ECB press conference, Non-Farm Payrolls and average hourly earnings due this week. Also, I be looking into GBPJPY, NZDUSD and USDCAD.

GBPJPY

The pound has been battered by brexit and its politics, but as the votes draw closer more politicians are coming out to support the Union of Europe and Great Britain, which is gradually increasing investors’ confidence in the region once again. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan is still looking for ways to curtail the yen gains in order to ease the pressure on its manufacturing sector due to weak oversea orders, and with continuous comments from both Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso and BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda on why current gain is bad for Japan and the needs for them to intervene, they have strategically rendered the yen unattractive. Hence, paving way for GBPJPY buyers.

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So looking at the chart, this pair has gained 597 pips since three weeks ago that I first posted the chart and breach 161.71 resistance level twice but failed to sustain it. Further confirming this upsurge is the three higher-lows double bottom established on the daily chart from the retest to last week Monday/Tuesday and Friday candlestick that closed as a pin bar. As long as price remains above 161.71 price level, I am bullish on GBPJPY with 165.66 as the first target and 169.21 as the second.

NZDUSD

New Zealand dollar continues to lose ground even after recording $292 million trade surplus from the previous $189 million, and beating analysts forecast of $40 million. The economy is still struggling with low exports and drop in price of global dairy products as China, its largest trading partner is far from recovery.

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This pair has lost about 151 pips in the last three weeks and hit our 0.6771 target, as long as new resistance 0.6771 holds, I am bearish on NZDUSD pair with 0.6609 as the target. Global Dairy Trade report is due on Wednesday.

USDCAD

This week, Canadian monthly GDP and Trade balance reports are due. But since 1.3142 target was hit three weeks ago after May 4th break-out from the downward trend that started on January 20 this year. I can’t help but to treat current trend as a continuation of the break-out, and with the Friday’s bullish pin bar I am bullish on USDCAD this week, and expect a sustained break of 1.3142 resistance level to attract enough buyers to open up 1.3387 target. It is important to keep an eye on Tuesday GDP and make adjustments accordingly.

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Last Week Recap

Last week EURUSD dropped 132 pips in our favour to 1.1109, but short of 1.0925 target. This week, I am neutral on eurusd because of numerous economic data coming out later in the week and uncertainties surrounding June rate hike and brexit.

GBPUSD

Cable rose as high as 1.4738 after the report of “EU Remain” polls were made public. The pair has since lost 132 pips, this week, I am bearish on cable as long as 1.4732 holds, with 1.4509 as the target.

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AUDUSD

Last week, Australia’s private capital expenditure for the first quarter of the year plunged 5.2 percent from 1.8 percent recorded in the final quarter of 2015. Showing investors are gradually losing confidence in the economy. The pair dropped 114 pips last week to 0.7144, this week I am still bearish on the Aussie dollar with 0.7088 as the first target, and if the building permit and first quarter GDP report schedule to be released later in the week support this analysis, 0.6699 will be the second target.

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A wonderful week to us all, and please drop comments.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

2 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.