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Forex Weekly Outlook May 30 – June 3

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Jared Martinez

The U.S. dollar continues its run after data showed first quarter GDP growth was higher than previously estimated, and revised upward from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent. Also, unemployment claims post moderate decline to 268,000 from 278,000, beating economists forecast of 275,000. While this is not bad, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday said an interest rate hike is “Probably appropriate in the coming months“. This is a big statement considering the fact that the market has already priced in the possibility of a June rate hike, and as more investors come to terms with the possibility of unchanged rate in June I expect US dollar to lose some gains. And even more as the odds changes. So I am going to pay attention to the US dollar differently this week, especially with Unemployment rate, ECB press conference, Non-Farm Payrolls and average hourly earnings due this week. Also, I be looking into GBPJPY, NZDUSD and USDCAD.

GBPJPY

The pound has been battered by brexit and its politics, but as the votes draw closer more politicians are coming out to support the Union of Europe and Great Britain, which is gradually increasing investors’ confidence in the region once again. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan is still looking for ways to curtail the yen gains in order to ease the pressure on its manufacturing sector due to weak oversea orders, and with continuous comments from both Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso and BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda on why current gain is bad for Japan and the needs for them to intervene, they have strategically rendered the yen unattractive. Hence, paving way for GBPJPY buyers.

GBPJPYDaily

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So looking at the chart, this pair has gained 597 pips since three weeks ago that I first posted the chart and breach 161.71 resistance level twice but failed to sustain it. Further confirming this upsurge is the three higher-lows double bottom established on the daily chart from the retest to last week Monday/Tuesday and Friday candlestick  that closed as a pin bar. As long as price remains above 161.71 price level, I am bullish on GBPJPY with 165.66 as the first target and 169.21 as the second.

NZDUSD

New Zealand dollar continues to lose ground even after recording $292 million trade surplus from the previous $189 million, and beating analysts forecast of $40 million. The economy is still struggling with low exports and drop in price of global dairy products as China, its largest trading partner is far from recovery.

NZDUSDDaily

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This pair has lost about 151 pips in the last three weeks and hit our 0.6771 target, as long as new resistance 0.6771 holds, I am bearish on NZDUSD pair with 0.6609 as the target. Global Dairy Trade report is due on Wednesday.

USDCAD

This week, Canadian monthly GDP and Trade balance reports are due. But since 1.3142 target was hit three weeks ago after May 4th break-out from the downward trend that started on January 20 this year. I can’t help but to treat current trend as a continuation of the break-out, and with the Friday’s bullish pin bar I am bullish on USDCAD this week, and expect a sustained break of 1.3142 resistance level to attract enough buyers to open up 1.3387 target. It is important to keep an eye on Tuesday GDP and make adjustments accordingly.

USDCADDaily

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Last Week Recap

Last week EURUSD dropped 132 pips in our favour to 1.1109, but short of 1.0925 target. This week, I am neutral on eurusd because of numerous economic data coming out later in the week and uncertainties surrounding June rate hike and brexit.

GBPUSD

Cable rose as high as 1.4738 after the report of “EU Remain” polls were made public. The pair has since lost 132 pips, this week, I am bearish on cable as long as 1.4732 holds, with 1.4509 as the target.

GBPUSDDaily

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AUDUSD

Last week,  Australia’s private capital expenditure for the first quarter of the year plunged 5.2 percent from 1.8 percent recorded in the final quarter of 2015.  Showing investors are gradually losing confidence in the economy. The pair dropped 114 pips last week to 0.7144, this week I am still bearish on the Aussie dollar with 0.7088 as the first target, and if the building permit and first quarter GDP report schedule to be released later in the week support this analysis, 0.6699 will be the second target.

AUDUSDDaily

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A wonderful week to us all, and please drop comments.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rate: Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today March 21, 2023

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New Naira Notes

As of March 21, 2023, the dollar to naira exchange rate is 1 USD to 753 NGN at the black market. This means that for every one US dollar, you can exchange it for ₦753, Investors King reports.

This digital business news platform has obtained the official dollar to naira exchange rate in Nigeria today including the Black Market rates, Bureau De Change (BDC) rate, and CBN rates.

This rate is subject to change depending on a variety of factors including global economic trends, political developments, and market fluctuations. However, you can buy and sell 1 USD at ₦748 and ₦753 as of the time of writing today.

What is the current exchange rate of the dollar to naira in the black market today?

According to Investors King, as of the time this report was filed, a dollar can be purchased at the Lagos parallel market (black market) for N748 and sold for N753.

Exchange Rate of Dollar To Naira in Black Market Today?
Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Buying Rate 748
Selling Rate 753

Investors King understands that although the dollar to naira opened at N753 per $1 in the parallel market today, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the parallel market, also referred to as the black market. The CBN has instructed individuals in need of forex to approach their bank as the I&E window is the sole recognized exchange.

On Tuesday, March 21st, 2023, individuals in the black market purchased one US dollar for N748 and sold it for N753. This shows that the value of the Naira has improved slightly to Wednesday, March 15th, 2023, when the local currency was exchanged at N750 and sold it for N754.

To stay informed about the dollar to naira exchange rate, there are a number of reliable sources that you can turn to. Here are some tips for staying up-to-date:

  • Check the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website: The CBN is responsible for regulating the country’s monetary policy and is a reliable source for the latest exchange rates. You can check their website regularly for updates.
  • Follow financial news outlets: Financial news outlets such as Investors King, Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC provide regular updates on the global currency markets, including the dollar to naira exchange rate.
  • Use online currency converters: There are a number of online currency converters that allow you to quickly and easily check the exchange rate between the dollar and the naira.
  • Follow social media accounts of financial experts: Following social media accounts of financial experts such as analysts, economists, and financial advisors can give you valuable insights into the latest trends in the currency markets.

By staying informed about the dollar to naira exchange rate, you can make informed decisions when buying or selling foreign currencies. Whether you are a business owner looking to trade in foreign currencies or an individual looking to invest in the currency markets, knowledge of the latest exchange rates is key to success. Keep these tips in mind and stay informed about the latest trends in the global currency markets.

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Black Market Rate

Naira Exchange Rate: Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today March 16, 2023

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New Naira Notes

As of March 16, 2023, the dollar to naira exchange rate is 1 USD to 754 NGN at the black market. This means that for every one US dollar, you can exchange it for ₦754, Investors King reports.

This digital business news platform has obtained the official dollar to naira exchange rate in Nigeria today including the Black Market rates, Bureau De Change (BDC) rate, and CBN rates.

This rate is subject to change depending on a variety of factors including global economic trends, political developments, and market fluctuations. However, you can buy and sell 1 USD at ₦750 and ₦754 as of the time of writing today.

What is the current exchange rate of the dollar to naira in the black market today?

According to Investors King, as of the time this report was filed, a dollar can be purchased at the Lagos parallel market (black market) for N750 and sold for N754.

Exchange Rate of Dollar To Naira in Black Market Today?
Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Buying Rate 750
Selling Rate 754

Investors King understands that although the dollar to naira opened at N755 per $1 in the parallel market today, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the parallel market, also referred to as the black market. The CBN has instructed individuals in need of forex to approach their bank as the I&E window is the sole recognized exchange.

On Thursday, March 15th, 2023, individuals in the black market purchased one US dollar for N750 and sold it for N754. This follows their actions on Wednesday, March 15th, 2023, when they purchased one US dollar for N750 and sold it for N754.

To stay informed about the dollar to naira exchange rate, there are a number of reliable sources that you can turn to. Here are some tips for staying up-to-date:

  • Check the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website: The CBN is responsible for regulating the country’s monetary policy and is a reliable source for the latest exchange rates. You can check their website regularly for updates.
  • Follow financial news outlets: Financial news outlets such as Investors King, Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC provide regular updates on the global currency markets, including the dollar to naira exchange rate.
  • Use online currency converters: There are a number of online currency converters that allow you to quickly and easily check the exchange rate between the dollar and the naira.
  • Follow social media accounts of financial experts: Following social media accounts of financial experts such as analysts, economists, and financial advisors can give you valuable insights into the latest trends in the currency markets.

By staying informed about the dollar to naira exchange rate, you can make informed decisions when buying or selling foreign currencies. Whether you are a business owner looking to trade in foreign currencies or an individual looking to invest in the currency markets, knowledge of the latest exchange rates is key to success. Keep these tips in mind and stay informed about the latest trends in the global currency markets.

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Forex

Nigeria’s Naira Falls Against Dollar: Causes and Possible Solutions

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Nigerian Naira has been on a steady decline against the US dollar, with a 3.8% decrease in value in the past month alone. This decline has been attributed to a cash crunch in the country and heightened uncertainty.

According to Bismarck Rewane, managing director and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, the official exchange rate remains overvalued, and sources of foreign exchange remain weak due to sub-optimal oil production, capital flow reversal, and exchange rate premiums at the parallel market.

The exchange rate at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) forex window steadied at N462/$ in January and February, while the official exchange rate remains overvalued compared to N750 recorded at the parallel market. This has made exchange rate management crucial for boosting growth in Nigeria.

However, there is no clear indication from the incoming administration on what exchange rate regime it prefers.

Commenting on the nation’s exchange rate, Chinwe Egwim, chief economist and head of economic research at Coronation Merchant Bank, said it is unclear if president-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration would prefer a floating exchange rate regime, but the manifesto states that “the exchange rate cannot be ignored nor left to the whims of the market”.

She said, “healthy accretion in external reserves should be recorded by the end of 2024 which would support foreign exchange liquidity and give the Central Bank of Nigeria more room to defend the naira.”

Most experts however believed the solution to the falling Naira is to unify the rates at the parallel and official markets as Egypt did in 2016. Although this led to a sharp rise in the inflation rate by 30%, it was complemented by tight monetary and fiscal policies to reduce liquidity build-up, and reserves accrued to $45 billion in 2019.

Others explained that another solution would for the country to up crude oil production in order to improve foreign revenue generation needed to prop up the value of the local currency by meeting demands of the dollar at the official rate.

Investors King reported that Nigeria’s crude oil output stood at 1.3 million barrels per day in February while OPEC’s quota for Africa’s largest producer remains at 1.8 million barrels per day. Indicating that Nigeria is producing 500,000 barrels per day below its quota.

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