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Nigerian Currency Crisis Explained: What We Know and Don’t Know

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nigerian currency - Investors King

Nigerian Currency Crisis Explained: What We Know and Don’t Know

 

Nigeria’s central bank may soon give bond and stock investors what they have been pleading for: a weaker naira.

Governor Godwin Emefiele announced after a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in Abuja, the capital, on Tuesday that a more flexible foreign-exchange system would be unveiled “in the coming days.” But he gave scant detail and left plenty of questions. Here are some answers:

What’s the problem?

Nigeria has held the naira at 197-199 per dollar since March 2015, even as other oil exporters from Russia to Colombia and Malaysia let their currencies drop amid the slump in crude prices since mid-2014. Foreign reserves dwindled as the central bank defended the peg, while foreign investors, fearing a devaluation, sold Nigerian stocks and bonds.

nigerian currency

While President Muhammadu Buhari and Emefiele argued a devaluation would fuel inflation, that happened anyway: consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in six years in April as the black-market naira rate plummeted. To make matters worse, data released four days before the MPC meeting showed the economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time since 2004 as the dollar shortage curtailed manufacturing. That probably surprised policy makers, prompting the change of heart, according to Mathias Althoff, a fund manager at Tundra Fonder AB, which has about $200 million invested in frontier market stocks, including Nigerian banks.

What happens next?

While Emefiele didn’t specify what he meant by “greater flexibility,” analysts at Renaissance Capital Ltd. believe the central bank will allocate dollars at a fixed rate to strategic industries — like energy and agriculture — while letting the naira weaken in the interbank market, where everyone else would buy their foreign currency. The central bank may also try try to control the new interbank rate by imposing a trading band of about 5 or 10 percent around it, according to Althoff.

Will that satisfy investors and save the economy?

If the central bank doesn’t allow the naira to drop enough, foreign investors will continue to shun Nigerian assets, according to Althoff. The currency should trade at around 285-290 per dollar, according to Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix Partners LLP. A devaluation won’t solve Nigeria’s structural economic problems — which include an over-reliance on oil exports — and may fuel inflation in the short term. But it would make Nigerian exports more competitive, curb imports and encourage foreign investment.

What are the pitfalls?

Most investors would prefer a fully-floating naira, yet doubt that Nigeria, which has always had currency controls of some sort, will take that option. And there are concerns it will be impossible for the central bank to ensure that only importers meeting its criteria will be able to buy foreign-exchange at the discounted official rate. Many analysts fear that in a nation U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron described as “fantastically corrupt,” access to the official rate will come down to political connections.

“The suggestion of a dual exchange rate, with the maintenance of the official window, is a concern,” Razia Khan, head of African research at Standard Chartered Plc, said. “This might lead to continued distortions in the market, ultimately with pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.”

What else should investors watch out for?

Buhari. He has made it clear that he, not Emefiele, is the person in charge of exchange-rate policy. The president is loath to allow the currency to drop unless he’s forced to and in February likened such a move to “murder.” He has yet to make any response to the MPC’s announcement. And while he is due to make a speech on May 29, the first anniversary of his coming to power, local press reports suggest he will focus on the government’s fight against corruption and Boko Haram’s Islamist insurgency.

The central bank has hinted at change before, only to do nothing. “The MPC has dangled the carrot of exchange rate reform, but without giving any details of what a reformed market would look like,” Cameron at Exotix said. “To the skeptics among us, this will simply sound like a re-hash of the same old material we’ve been hearing about since December 2015.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

NLC Describes President Tinubu’s Involvement In Dangote Refinery Petrol Pricing As ‘Fraud’

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Joe Ajaero

The President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Joe Ajaero, has described the involvement of the President Bola Tinubu-led government in deciding the price of petrol produced by Dangote Refinery as fraud.

Ajaero spoke during a media briefing at the Murtala Muhammed Airport in Lagos on Wednesday.

According to him, the inconsistencies in policies and fraudulent actions of the Tinubu-led administration are the cause of the ongoing conflict between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and Dangote Refinery.

The NLC President criticised the current administration for attempting to interfere with the operations of private entities like Dangote.

He countered the government’s attempt to dictate the price of petrol produced by Dangote, describing it as fraudulent.

Ajaero said: “In a truly deregulated market, there should be no interference in how private sector entities like Dangote operate. Imposing restrictions or dictating prices goes against the principles of a free market.

“For a locally produced product, with no reliance on imported dollars or landing costs, they’re demanding he sells it at the same price as the imported ones. That’s both fraudulent and unacceptable.

“What you’re witnessing is a mix of fraud and policy inconsistency. Nigerians were led to believe that the sector had been deregulated, and in a deregulated market, competition and choice should prevail. So why is there now an attempt to control how much Dangote should sell his product for?

“When the Port Harcourt refinery becomes operational, both NNPC and Dangote should be able to sell freely. But trying to dictate Dangote’s pricing is dishonest.

“This is the time for Nigerians to speak out. We were told that deregulation would put the private sector in charge and limit government interference in business. Now, the government is trying to regulate how private businesses should price their products.

“They expect him to sell at the same price as the imported product, even though it was produced locally without the additional landing costs. That’s outright fraud.”

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Gain Amid U.S. Production Woes and Rate Cut Expectations

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Crude gained on Tuesday following Hurricane Francine disruption in the U.S. and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the U.S.

These two factors have boosted traders’ sentiment in the oil market despite concerns about global demand and slowing growth in China.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 36 cents, or 0.5% to $73.11 per barrel while the U.S. crude oil gained 53 cents, or 0.8% to settle $70.62 per barrel.

Both closed higher in the previous trading session as the market reacted to the impact of Hurricane Francine on U.S. Gulf Coast production.

More than 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline as of Monday, according to the U.S.

According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), the disruption has raised concerns over short-term supply shortages and contribution to the upward momentum in prices.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG said “while the market is seeing near-term stabilization, the fragile state of China’s economy and anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could limit further gains.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a rate cut later this week, with futures markets pricing in a 69% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction.

Lower interest rates are favourable for oil prices as they reduce borrowing costs and encourage economic growth.

“Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut are lifting sentiment across the commodities sector”, stated ANZ analysts.

The market, however, remains cautious due to lower-than-expected demand from China, the world’s largest importer of the commodity.

Chinese data released over the weekend showed that China’s oil refinery output dropped for the fifth consecutive month in August. This signals weaker domestic demand and declining export margins.

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Crude Oil

New Petrol Prices to Range Between N857 and N865 Following NNPC-Dangote Deal

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Petrol

Hopes for cheaper Premium Motor Spirit (PM), otherwise known as petrol, rose, last night, as indications emerged that the product may sell for between N857 and N865 per litre after the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) starts lifting the product from Dangote Refinery today.

It was learnt that the NNPCL, as the sole off-taker of petrol from the refinery, is projected to lift the product at N960/N980 per litre and sell to marketers at N840/N850 to enable Nigerians to get it at between N857 and N865 at the pump at filling stations.

However, whether uniform product prices would apply at filling stations nationwide was unclear.

As of yesterday, petrol sold at N855 per litre at NNPCL retail stations in Lagos and it was the cheapest anyone could buy the product while major marketers sold around N920.

At independent marketers’ outlets, the price was over N1,000. Elsewhere across the country, PMS sold for more than N1,200 per litre.

Sources said the new arrangement from the NNPCL and Dangote Refinery negotiations, spanning more than one week, would allow Nigerians to get petrol at between N857 and N865 per litre and represents an average under-recovery of about N130 to NNPCL.

President Bola Tinubu, Sunday Vanguard was made to understand by a Presidency source, made it clear to the negotiating parties that “the price at which petrol would be sold to Nigerians should not be such that would place heavy financial burden on them while dealing with the new reality of the prevailing price”.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has, meanwhile, expressed optimism that the deal would reduce the pressure on foreign exchange (FX) demands and shore up the value of the Naira – presently, between 30% and 40% of FX demands go into the importation of PMS.

Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd., Olufemi Soneye, who confirmed the readiness of the company to start lifting petrol today, told Sunday Vanguard, yesterday: “NNPC Ltd has started deploying our trucks and vessels to the Dangote Refinery to lift PMS in preparation for the scheduled lifting date of September 15th, as set by the refinery.

“Our trucks and personnel are already on-site, ready to begin lifting. We expect more trucks, and the deployment will continue throughout the weekend so we can start loading as soon as the refinery begins operations on September 15, 2024.”

Soneye hinted that at least 100 trucks had already arrived at the refinery for the petrol lifting, adding that the number of trucks could increase to 300 by Saturday evening.

On his part, Executive Secretary, of Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Olufemi Adewole, said: “We have been lifting diesel (AGO) and aviation fuel (jet fuel) and we look forward to lifting petrol (PMS).”

On pricing, he said: “We await clarity in respect of the pricing mode, and once that is clarified, we’ll do the needful towards meeting the energy needs of Nigerians.”

Yesterday, Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy said the structuring of the NNPCL, Dangote Refinery deal in Naira would assist in reducing pressure on the local currency.

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