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Forex Weekly Outlook May 16 – 20

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outlook

Forex Weekly Outlook May 16 – 20

 

Last week, the US released mixed economic data. As mixed as the figures are, the US dollar gained momentum and attracted buyers based on FED’s rate expectations and the possibility of BOJ intervening in the yen recent gains. Why I am not convinced that non-farm payrolls 160,000 jobs added in April and 294,000 surged in unemployment benefits are good enough to raise rates, I am compelled to lean towards dollar new found strength this week. So I will be looking at NZDUSD, USDCAD and GBPJPY this week.

NZDUSD

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Graeme Wheeler said last week that risks to the financial stability outlook have increased in the past six months, and this he attributed to lower dairy prices due to increase in global dairy supplies. He also mentioned imbalances in the housing market, while the report wasn’t entirely bad. The poor retail sales 0.8 percent released on Friday was, same with core retail sales that dropped from 1.3 percent to 1 percent.

outlook

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Now, looking at the chart, NZDUSD established ascending channel of January 20th was first broken on May 9th, but the pair pullback on 11th, to retest trendline at 0.6847. Forming an evening star after NZ poor retail sales and better than expected US retail sales reports. This gives us a 232-pips sell opportunity from 0.6847 new resistance level.

This week I am bearish on NZDUSD with 0.6609 as the target, while keeping an eye on Global Dairy Trade and Producer Price Index data due on Tuesday in New Zealand.

USDCAD

As always loonie trend is straight forward, directly proportion to increase in oil prices. But with Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Larence Schembri, saying nothing in particular in the last central bank financial stability report, we will have to find that loophole ourselves. Canada GDP plunged 0.1 percent last month from 0.6 percent gained in the previous month, adding this to trade deficit that surged from 2.5B to 3.4 billion in March. It is obvious all is not well with the Canadian economy as exports is weak.

outlook

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Looking at the chart, immediately the trade balance data came out on the 4th of May, USDCAD closed above trendline for the first time since January 20. And has since established a support at 1.2849, with a pinbar closed on Thursday and bullish daily candlestick on Friday, giving us a morning star pattern, a buying opportunity.

This week I remain bullish on this pair with 1.3142 as my target.

GBPJPY

This is another pair I have been following for a while, first because of the uncertainty created by the European Union and British June 23 referendum vote, second, because I am in tune with BOJ policies and I think GBPJPY has been oversold since the yen starts its gain and currently trading at 3-year low.

After breaking out of the downward trend on April 22, the pair has been unable to sustain 161.71 price level, hence, lost around 600 pips. While buying might not be okay now if you are not looking at long-term, so is selling because of uncertainty surrounding BOJ monetary policy and poor economic data released from the UK last week. Another reason is a possible change in Bank of Japan monetary policy has the potential to trigger a massive buy.

outlook

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From the chart, price retest trendline after break-out and has since been trading above 154.39 support level, as long as this support level holds, I remain bullish on GBPJPY and if referendum came out positive or BOJ make monetary policy changes by adding additional stimulus. I will be looking to buy for 161.71 as first target and 169.21 as second, but until then leave comments and lets interact.

What do you think?

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 25th July 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of July 25th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ā‚¦1,595.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ā‚¦1,580 and sold it at ā‚¦1,570 on Wednesday, July 24th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ā‚¦1,595
  • Selling Rate: ā‚¦1,585

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Forex

IMTOs Drive 38.86% Rise in Foreign Exchange Inflows to $1.07bn in First Quarter of 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Foreign exchange inflows into Nigeria surged by 38.86% to $1.07 billion in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeriaā€™s (CBN) latest quarterly statistical bulletin.

This increase is attributed to the enhanced contributions from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs).

In January, IMTOs facilitated inflows amounting to $383.04 million. This figure dipped slightly to $322.83 million in February but rebounded to $363.70 million by March, this upward trend represents a 10.74% growth from the previous quarter of 2023.

The surge in forex inflows comes at a critical time for Nigeria, as the country continues to grapple with economic challenges, including inflation and a fluctuating naira.

The increased foreign exchange reserves are expected to provide much-needed stability to the naira and bolster Nigeriaā€™s economic standing in the global arena.

CBN Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso has underscored the importance of remittances from the diaspora, which constitute approximately 6% of Nigeria’s GDP.

The recent approval of licenses for 14 new IMTOs is seen as a strategic move to enhance competition and lower transaction costs, thereby encouraging more remittances to flow through formal channels.

“We recognize the significant role that IMTOs play in our foreign exchange ecosystem,” Dr. Cardoso remarked during a recent press briefing.

“The inflows weā€™ve seen are a testament to the effectiveness of our strategy to engage with these operators and ensure that more remittances are channeled through official avenues.”

The CBN has also introduced measures to facilitate IMTOs’ access to naira liquidity at the official window, aiming to streamline the settlement of diaspora remittances.

This initiative is part of the broader effort to stabilize the forex market and address the persistent challenges of foreign currency availability.

The bulletin also revealed that the inflow from IMTOs has contributed significantly to Nigeriaā€™s overall forex reserves, which are crucial for economic stability and growth.

Analysts suggest that the increased remittances will support the naira, providing relief amidst the countryā€™s ongoing economic adjustments.

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Forex

CBN Resumes Forex Sales as Naira Hits N1,570/$ at Parallel Market

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US Dollar - Investorsking.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has resumed the sale of foreign exchange to eligible Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The decision was after Naira dipped to N1,570 per dollar in the parallel market,

CBN announced that it would sell dollars to BDCs at a rate of N1,450 per dollar. This decision aims to address distortions in the retail end of the forex market and support the demand for invisible transactions.

Following the CBN’s intervention, the dollar, which recently traded as low as 1,640 per dollar, has shown signs of stabilization.

The apex bank’s action is expected to inject liquidity and restore confidence among market participants.

BDC operators have welcomed the move. Mohammed Magaji, an operator in Abuja, noted that the dollar was selling at 1,630 per dollar.

He emphasized the market’s volatile nature but expressed optimism about the CBN’s intervention.

Aminu Gwadebe, President of the Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria, attributed the naira’s decline to acute shortages, speculative activities, and increased demand due to recent duty waivers.

He praised the CBN’s action as a necessary step to alleviate market pressures.

The CBN’s efforts include selling $20,000 to each eligible BDC, with a directive to limit profit margins to 1.5% above the purchase rate.

This strategy aims to ensure that end-users receive fair rates and to curb inflationary pressures.

The CBN’s ongoing reforms seek to achieve a market-determined exchange rate for the naira. As the naira continues to navigate turbulent waters, stakeholders remain hopeful that these measures will lead to a more stable and liquid forex market.

Market analysts suggest that sustained interventions and increased access to foreign exchange could help reverse the naira’s downward trend.

The CBN’s actions demonstrate a commitment to tackling the challenges facing the foreign exchange market and supporting Nigeria’s economic stability.

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