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Oil Price Slump Reduces Sector’s Output by N3.6tn

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Oil price Nigeria

The massive drop in global oil prices impacted negatively on the performance of the Nigerian oil and gas sector, which recorded a decline of N3.6tn in output in the 2015 fiscal period, according to punch report.

A report showing the performance of the sector, which was obtained by our correspondent from the National Bureau of Statistics, revealed that in monetary terms, the sector recorded a huge decline of 37.5 per cent from N9.61tn in 2014 to N5.99tn at the end of last year.

Further analysis of the report showed that since the second quarter of the 2014 fiscal year, the petroleum sector had been recording steady decline in output

Between the first and second quarters of 2014, the sector witnessed an increase in output from N2.61tn to N2.63tn.

However, due to the drop in oil prices, which began in June 2014, the sector’s contribution to the economy could not be sustained as it started declining steadily from the third quarter.

It dropped to N2.32tn in the third quarter of 2014 and further went down to N2.04tn in the fourth quarter.

In 2015, the sector witnessed its worst performance in recent times, contributing the sums of N1.39tn, N1.74tn, N1.53tn and N1.31tn to the economy in the four quarters of the year.

The report stated that the dismal performance of the oil and gas sector also impacted negatively on the contribution of the mining and quarrying sector to the economy.

There are four main activities that make up the mining and quarrying sector. They are crude petroleum and natural gas, coal mining, metal ore and other minerals.

The NBS report put the growth in the mining and quarrying sector at 5.18 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2015 as against 8.56 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014.

It stated, “On a nominal basis, the sector slowed in the fourth quarter of 2015 by 35.12 per cent (year-on-year) during the quarter.

“This was substantially below the growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014. This drop is attributable to the falling oil prices.”

Speaking on the low output of the sector, financial experts told our correspondent that the inability of the government to effectively diversify the economy away from oil was responsible for the drop in performance.

For instance, a former Managing Director, Unity Bank Plc, Mr. Rislanudeeen Mohammed, said the country should have built enough fiscal buffers when crude oil sold for as high as $140 per barrel.

He said, “Nigeria is a mono product economy basically. We export only crude because 70 per cent of our income is derived from oil; 94 per cent of our foreign earnings is derived from oil, and oil contributes only about 10 per cent of our Gross Domestic Product.

“When the price of oil was going up, when it was in the region of $140, Nigeria was making a lot of money for years. What Nigeria should have done is to build fiscal buffers. But this didn’t happen owing to constitutional challenges.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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