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Dollar Heads For Steepest Three-Week Slide

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External Reserves

The dollar headed for its steepest three-week slide in more than four years as an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve spurred analysts and investors to reassess forecasts for the greenback.

A Bloomberg index tracking the U.S. currency against 10 major peers climbed from an eight-month low reached Friday, two days after Fed officials unexpectedly cut projections for interest-rate increases to two this year from the four they estimated in December. Macquarie Bank Ltd. and Morgan Stanley, two of the world’s top 10 currency forecasters, are highlighting the risk of more dollar weakness.

“The fact that they didn’t raise rates and wound back expectations for future increases in 2016 has obviously hurt the U.S. dollar,” said Derek Mumford, a director at Rochford Capital Pty in Sydney. “That can continue in the very near term.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,185.52 as of 6:28 a.m. in New York, having fallen earlier to 1,180.83, the lowest since June 30. It has dropped 3.7 percent since Feb. 26, poised for the biggest three-week slump since October 2011. The greenback has depreciated at least 0.4 percent against all of its Group-of-10 peers since March 11.

Fed’s Outlook

The Fed meeting prompted investors to question whether the dollar’s rally has run out of steam. Bloomberg’s gauge had climbed 37 percent between its 2011 low and the closing peak reached on Jan. 22 of this year, as the promise of superior economic growth and rising interest rates contrasted with sluggish economic activities elsewhere.

“In terms of the relative difference in interest rates, the rally is over,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown” with Manus Cranny and Anna Edwards. “The Fed has said we’re not going to be pushing this game like we were expected too.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its year-end forecast for dollar-yen to 103 from 110 the same day. The median estimate is 120 among more than 60 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The dollar was little changed at 111.38 yen Friday, on track for a 2.2 percent slide this week. It reached 110.67 on Thursday, the lowest since October 2014. The greenback gained 0.4 percent Friday to $1.1268 per euro, paring its weekly decline to 1 percent.

‘More Dovish’

“The Fed has become much more dovish — the market realizing maybe the Fed being a little bit more behind the curve,” Dominic Schnider, the head of commodities and Asia-Pacific foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit in Hong Kong, said Friday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That’s simply not good for the dollar, and so we have this generic dollar weakness right now which will not disappear in the very short term.”

While Morgan Stanley and Macquarie agree on the prospects for near-term weakness, they remain dollar bulls.

The greenback will decline over a one-to-three month horizon, after which it will begin climbing again on a resumption of Fed tightening amid looser policy elsewhere, Macquarie strategists Nizam Idris, Gareth Berry and Teresa Lam wrote in a report Thursday.

“The falling USD has the characteristics of a pain trade that seems to have further to run,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Hans Redeker, the global head of currency strategy, wrote in a note the same day . However, “for the USD to experience a long-term trend change requires more than a dovish Fed.”

Bloomberg

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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Banking Sector

FMBN Set for Commercialization to Improve Affordable Mortgage Financing

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FMBN

In a bid to bolster housing delivery efficiency and enhance affordable mortgage financing for Nigerians, the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) is gearing up for commercialization.

This move comes as part of the Nigerian government’s efforts to address the housing deficit and ensure adequate shelter for its citizens.

The Managing Director of FMBN, Shehu Osidi, made this announcement during a courtesy visit by the Federal Housing Delivery Reforms Task Team at the bank’s headquarters in Abuja.

Led by Mr. Adedeji Adesemoye and Brig. Gen. Tunde Reis, the task team discussed strategies to revitalize the housing sector, with a focus on FMBN’s pivotal role in providing affordable mortgage financing.

Osidi explained the bank’s commitment to supporting the government’s agenda of reforming and improving the housing sector, which is vital for sustainable development and enhancing citizens’ quality of life.

He underscored FMBN’s significant journey in the history of mortgage and housing finance in Nigeria and expressed optimism about the forthcoming commercialization process.

The commercialization plan involves repositioning and recapitalization efforts, following extensive engagements with the Bureau of Public Enterprise (BPE).

Osidi stressed the importance of aligning the bank’s operations with its mandate of affordable mortgage financing, ensuring that it remains a reliable partner in the quest for accessible housing solutions.

As part of its strategic blueprint, FMBN has prioritized various initiatives to enhance service delivery and operational efficiency.

Of note is the ICT project aimed at upgrading core banking applications that is almost complete and promised to revolutionize customers’ experience.

Also, amendments to the FMBN and NFH Acts are underway in the National Assembly, addressing key areas to facilitate the bank’s transformation.

Despite challenges, including performance issues with estate development loans, FMBN is determined to overcome obstacles and achieve its objectives.

The commercialization plan aligns with broader efforts to deepen reforms and foster a remarkable turnaround in the housing sector.

By focusing on process automation, cost efficiency, credit quality enhancement, and strategic partnerships, FMBN aims to catalyze sustainable growth and address the nation’s housing needs effectively.

Chairman of the Federal Housing Reforms Task Team, Adedeji Adesomoye, reiterated the committee’s mandate to review the operations and governance structures of key housing institutions.

With ambitious targets set by the government, including the construction of 20,000 housing units in 2024 and 50,000 units in subsequent years, the commercialization of FMBN marks a pivotal step towards realizing Nigeria’s housing aspirations.

As the commercialization process unfolds, FMBN stands poised to play a central role in facilitating access to affordable mortgage financing, thereby contributing to the realization of homeownership dreams for millions of Nigerians.

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Banking Sector

Adesola Adeduntan’s Early Departure Prompts First Bank Holdings to Scrap Capital Raise Plans

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FirstBank Headquarter - Investors King

First Bank Holdings Plc has decided to scrap its plans for capital raise following the early departure of its Managing Director, Adesola Adeduntan.

The decision to cancel the extraordinary general meeting (EGM), which was planned to discuss the proposed N300 billion capital raise, comes amidst Adeduntan’s resignation from his role, eight months before the scheduled expiration of his tenure.

The bank formally announced the cancellation of the EGM in a filing seen by Investors King on Friday.

The meeting, which was initially scheduled to be held virtually on April 30, 2024, aimed to seek authorization from the company’s members for the capital raise and address other related matters.

Adeduntan’s resignation, announced on the same day as the cancellation of the EGM, comes as a result of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tenure requirements affecting bank executives.

In his retirement letter addressed to the Chairman of First Bank, Adeduntan expressed gratitude for the support received during his stewardship and highlighted the strides made by the bank during his tenure.

He stated, “During this period, the bank and its subsidiaries have undergone significant changes and broken new grounds. We have repositioned the institution as an enviable financial giant in Africa.”

Adeduntan further mentioned his decision to pursue other interests, prompting his early retirement effective April 20, 2024.

The cancellation of the capital raise plans shows the impact of Adeduntan’s departure on the bank’s strategic initiatives.

It reflects a shift in priorities for First Bank Holdings as it navigates leadership changes and seeks to chart a new course for its future direction.

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