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JPMorgan Trading Revenue Drops 20% This Year in Global Rout

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JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s investment bank said revenue from sales and trading has tumbled about 20 percent this year, providing an early gauge of the pain inflicted on Wall Street’s biggest firms by the global market rout battering investors.

The drop from a year earlier also was exacerbated by the Swiss franc’s surge in January 2015, which boosted revenue at the time, the division’s chief, Daniel Pinto, said Tuesday at the bank’s annual investor conference in New York. This quarter, lower earnings from debt and equity capital markets underwriting may contribute to a 25 percent decline in the division’s fee revenue, he said. In a filing, the bank said its securities services unit for institutional investors will probably see revenue slip about 6 percent to $875 million.

“There is no doubt that it so far has been a very tough quarter,” Pinto said. Still, revenue from advising on mergers and acquisitions “is holding well,” he said.

The first quarter is typically the strongest for Wall Street investment banks, as clients shift holdings. This time, the rout is prompting investors to pull back from markets and firms such as Jefferies Group to signal weaker earnings from the business of helping companies issue and sell securities. Shareholder concerns that cheap oil and slowing growth in China will erode bank profits have contributed to a 13 percent slide in the 89-company Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index this year.

JPMorgan’s stock fell 4.2 percent to $56.12 in New York, the second-worst performance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Shares of the bank slid after it projected potential losses on loans if oil continues to slump.

Dimon Bullish

Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, taking the stage after Pinto, pointed to signs that earnings may improve: The firm is gaining investment banking market share in Europe, has a couple of big deals in the works and a backlog of initial public offerings. It’s “very possible” for the market to do better in March, he said.

Dimon, 59, plowed $26.6 million of his own fortune into buying more of the bank’s stock this month after it fell below $54, the lowest in more than two years. On Tuesday, he said he would snap up the shares “all day long” at $48.

U.S. financial stocks have declined more than any other major industry this year on concern that credit costs are increasing because of exposure to energy companies. JPMorgan said it would need to boost reserves for impaired energy loans by $1.5 billion if oil prices hold at about $25 a barrel over 18 months. In a presentation, the firm estimated its first-quarter increase to reserves for oil and gas will be about $500 million, bringing the total set aside to $1.3 billion.

Credit-card issuers including JPMorgan also face mounting pressure to outbid one another to protect and win partnerships with big merchants — deals that can help fuel future income from lending and fees. The bank estimated that extending such agreements with other companies will erode revenue by about $900 million this year. It has recently renewed deals with partners including Amazon.com Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co.

“Cards will not be as big a contributor to earnings growth at JPMorgan as I had originally expected,” as margins are squeezed by the partnership negotiations, Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC, said in an e-mail.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil Extends Gain to $86.66 a Barrel Amid Tight Supply

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Tight global oil supply pushed Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria oil is priced, to a multi-year high of $86.66 per barrel on Monday at 3:30 pm Nigerian time.

Oil price was lifted by rising fuel demand in the United States and tight global supply as economies recover from pandemic-induced slumps.

The global energy supply crunch continues to show its teeth, as oil prices extend their upward march this week, a result of traders pricing in the ongoing rise in fuel demand – which amid limited supply response is depleting global stockpiles,” said Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

Goldman Sachs on the other hand is predicting a further increase in Brent crude oil to $90 a barrel, citing a strong rebound in global oil demand due to switching from gas to oil. This the bank estimated may contribute about 1 million barrels per day to global oil demand.

The investment bank said it expects oil demand to reach around 100 million barrels per day as consumption in Asia increases after the devastating effect of COVID-19.

While not our base-case, such persistence would pose upside risk to our $90/bbl year-end Brent price forecast,” Goldman said in a research note dated Oct. 24.

Earlier this month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC+ agreed to continue increasing oil supply by 400,000 bpd a month until April 2022 despite calls for an increase in global oil supplies.

The decision bolstered the price of Brent crude oil above $84 per barrel and expected to push the price even further to $90 a barrel. Low global oil supply amid rising demand for crude oil will continue to support oil prices in the near term.

Despite the recent power cuts and impacts to industrial activity in China, oil demand is likely instead supported by switching to diesel powered generators and diesel engines in LNG trucks, as well as by a ramp up in coal production,” Goldman Sachs stated.

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Energy

U.S. and Ghana Inaugurate New $64.7 Million Energy Infrastructure Investment at Pokuase

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U.S. Ambassador to Ghana Stephanie Sullivan joined the President of Ghana H.E. Nana Akufo-Addo and other Ghana government officials to formally inaugurate the Pokuase Bulk Supply Point (BSP) in Accra today.  The U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) funded the $64.7 million (GH₵ 391.9 million) electrical infrastructure project under the Ghana Power Compact.

“The Pokuase Bulk Supply Point represents sustainable infrastructure investment by the United States with Ghana that will benefit hundreds of thousands of Ghanaians now and into the future,” remarked Ambassador Sullivan at the inaugural event. “It will help deliver more reliable power to the people, places, and businesses of Accra that drive increased economic activity benefitting families, businesses, and communities.”

This represents a flagship investment under the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s Ghana Power Compact.  The Pokuase BSP will reduce outages in the power system, help stabilize voltages, and improve the quality and reliability of power supplied to the northern parts of the capital city of Accra.  It will also reduce technical losses in the power transmission and distribution system, contributing to the financial viability of the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) and the Ghana Grid Company (GRIDCo) in the long term.  The Pokuase BSP is now the largest-capacity BSP in Ghana at 580 megavolt amperes (MVA) and will directly benefit 350,000 utility customers.

The Government of Ghana implemented the project through the Millennium Development Authority (MiDA).  MiDA formally handed over the new power substation to ECG and GRIDCo in today’s ceremony.

The Pokuase BSP is the first major construction project to be completed under the Ghana Power Compact. The $316 million compact is helping the Government of Ghana improve the power sector through investments that will provide more reliable and affordable electricity to Ghana’s businesses and households. The compact is also funding a BSP at Kasoa and two primary substations at Kanda and Legon, in addition to other power sector investments, energy efficiency programs, and women’s empowerment programs within the power sector. The compact program will officially close on June 6, 2022.

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Crude Oil

Oil Falls Slightly as China Steps in to Curb Rising Coal Prices

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Crude oil - Investors King

Global oil prices moderated slightly on Wednesday following the Chinese government’s decision to curb high coal prices and ensure coal mines function at maximum capacity.

Brent crude, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped to $83.98 per barrel at 11:00 am Nigerian time. While the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 80 cents or 1 percent to $81.20 a barrel.

“China is planning to take steps to combat the steep rises in the domestic coal market … which could put considerable pressure on the coal price there and reverse the fuel switch to oil,” Commerzbank said.

Prices for Chinese coal and other commodities slumped in early trade, which in turn pulled oil down from an uptick earlier in the day.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission said on Tuesday it would bring coal prices back to a reasonable range and crack down on any irregularities that disturb market order or malicious speculation on thermal coal futures. read more

Oil markets in general remain supported on the back of a global coal and gas crunch, which has driven a switch to diesel and fuel oil for power generation.

But the market on Wednesday was also pressured by data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group which showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 15, according to market sources.

That was well above nine analysts’ forecasts for a rise of 1.9 million barrels in crude stocks, in a Reuters poll.

However, U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, which include diesel, heating oil and jet fuel, fell much more than analysts had expected, pointing to strong demand.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.

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