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Nigeria Economic Outlook in The Next 4 yrs – NBS

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Nigeria economic outlook

Amidst several projections of challenging economy in the year 2016 by many economists and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, has outlined its own position on all key economic indicators, not just for 2016 but also in the next four years to 2019.

The projections covers the annual growth rate of real Gross Domestic Products, GDP, annual Inflation rate, and the annual growth rate of the Value of Total Trade, VTT.

Gross Domestic Product, GDP

In a report released last weekend NBS said “growth in 2016 is expected to be tepid at best”. Economic tepidity is one characterised by dull activities in key market segments and performance areas. NBS’ prediction was based on the happenings in the economy recently especially in 2015 marked by huge negative impact of its dependency on oil revenue amidst price shocks.

It noted “years prior to 2015, the Nigerian economy was largely supported by the non-oil sector as supply disruptions hampered oil output. In 2015 however, various factors including political uncertainty prior to and six months after the elections, and intermittent supply shocks of refined petroleum products, and others weighted on both oil and non-oil output. The entire economy took a hit”.

Consequently GDP which is the key indicator of economic health of a country was on the downside, declining in the first and second quarter with marginal recovery in the third quarter 2015.

However, NBS stated that “in 2016, the economy is expected to grow by 3.78 per cent, as output in the oil and non-oil sectors are expected to perform marginally better relative to 2015”. According to the Bureau, Federal Government’s main economic research agency, “the declines in prices of crude oil and related refined products give the Nigerian government the opportunity for some potential savings as subsidies payments on PMS and other refined products may be diverted into more productive aspects of the economy”.

It noted that “the government has taken a step further to repeal subsidies on kerosene products. As it stands there are no subsidies on PMS and this should bode well for government coffers going forward. “In the near term, support to the non-oil sector is expected to come through initiatives by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and the Government at Federal and State levels.

“One of such initiatives is the N300 billion Naira export stimulation fund by the CBN. Increased efforts by State governments to boost internally-generated revenue, when combined with more prudent and targeted infrastructure spending, is likely to lead to better output performance”.

Going forward NBS said the 2017 to 2019 period is expected to reap the benefits of the extra N1.6 trillion into capital expenditures in the 2016 budget, adding that in particular, plans by the government authorities to increase power supply by developing critical infrastructure to transport gas to the power plants in order to add 2,000 mega watts to the country’s stock of power within the next 12 to 15 months will have multiplier effects on both the manufacturing and services sectors.

NBS stated “other measures expected to spur growth include fiscal measures such as the implementation of the Treasury Single Account, TSA, improvements in tax collection efforts and the creation of an Efficiency Unit in the Federal Ministry of Finance to ensure that scarce resources are adequately deployed. With hopes on the salutary effects of these measures NBS said over the 2017 to 2019 period, growth is expected to average 5.42 per cent.

Inflationary Pressures

Another key economic variable examined and projected by NBS is the inflation rate. In this report NBS has projected that inflation may rise to 10.16 by end of 2016.

But it also indicated a gradual decline such that over the 2017 to 2019 period, inflation is expected to average 9.01 per cent. NBS’s outlook for the previous year predicted that curbing inflation would be harder to achieve as a result of the devaluation of the Naira, which occurred in November 2014. Indeed the first half of the year recorded more macroeconomic volatility as the headline rate, year-on-year, recorded a wider range relative to the second half of the year.

In the Second half of the year speculative pressure on the Naira compounded supply shocks exhibited in the first half of the year. Though administrative measures by the CBN helped curb some inflationary pressure, according to NBS, speculative pressure on the Naira is likely to exist in 2016 in light of the current state of foreign reserves.

The Bureau noted, ‘’while administrative measures will help provide some cover, the downside risk of such measures is that by making imported goods more difficult to obtain, they increase the price of such goods, leading to higher inflation. “We expect that the Central Bank’s adjustment of the foreign exchange management framework will be steady in the year and will thus mean a gradual easing in prices beyond 2016”.

Value of Total Trade

2015 saw a decline in both the values of imports and exports. Exports were weighed upon by the decline in the price of crude, while overall sluggish growth as well as foreign exchange restrictions weighted on the value of imports. NBS stated that “going forward the relative lower price of the Naira is expected to result in cheaper prices of non-oil exports, and again curb increases in imports. “Nevertheless, Value of Total Trade is forecast to increase on the margin, increasing by 2.41 per cent as Imports increase by 2.88 per cent and exports increase by 2.16 per cent.

“Beyond 2016, a stabilization in oil prices while not expected to reach 2014 levels in the medium term in combination with a more competitive economy is expected to yield a rebound in both imports and exports.

“Total Trade is projected to increase by 2.41 per cent in 2016, and grow by an average 15.62 per cent yearly over the forecast period 2017 to 2019”.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers

In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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