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Emerging-Market Stocks Head for Biggest Two-Day Rally

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Emerging Markets

Emerging-market stocks headed for the biggest two-day rally since 2011 as oil held onto its gains and on optimism some of the world’s biggest central banks will boost stimulus to prop up plunging markets.

All 10 sectors in the index rose, led by energy shares, backing up the biggest increase in the gauge since August on Friday. Brent crude advanced, after jumping the most in more than seven years over Thursday and Friday in a rally sparked by hedge funds reducing bets prices would keep falling. A measure of emerging-market currencies rose for a third day to extend its recovery from a record low. The won led gains to head for its biggest two-day advance since October before data forecast to show South Korea’s economic growth quickened last quarter from a year earlier.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s indication that stimulus could be boosted as early as March, along with speculation China will cut interest rates further and the Federal Reserve will delay raising them, is driving a recovery in global markets. While China’s economy is decelerating, it won’t be a cataclysmic slowdown, according to several attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week including Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Credit Suisse Group AG Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam.

“The probable closing of short oil contracts leading oil prices higher and the consensus in Davos on a soft landing for China eased market fears,” Attila Vajda, managing director of Project Asia Research & Consulting Pte, a Singapore-based advisory firm, said from Ho Chi Minh City. “But it’s likely that we are not out of the woods yet, so the rebound in the market might be just a relief rally.”

Stocks

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.3 percent to 719.52 at 12:14 p.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge has fallen 9.4 percent this year and is trading at 10.5 times its projected 12-month earnings, compared with 14.8 for the MSCI World Index. Hong Kong’s Tencent Holdings Ltd. provided the biggest boost to the gauge, rising 2.8 percent, followed by China Mobile Ltd. with a 2.4 percent increase.

The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index of mainland shares in Hong Kong climbed 1.3 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index advanced 1 percent. The gauge, whose gyrations at the start of the year sparked the global selloff, ended up 1.3 percent on Friday as China signaled it would curb overcapacity in industries such as coal that have been dragging down economic growth.

Equities indexes in Thailand, Taiwan and Indonesia were up by 1 percent or more, while Vietnam’s VN Index rose 3.1 percent. Malaysian markets are closed for a public holiday.

Currencies

The developing-nation currencies gauge rose 0.1 percent, following a 1 percent jump on Friday after it fell to an unprecedented low two days earlier. The won was up 0.6 percent, backing up a 1.1 percent advance on Friday, while the Taiwanese dollar strengthened 0.4 percent and Thailand’s baht climbed 0.2 percent. Brent crude has rallied 16 percent in three days, but is still down 13 percent this year.

“Emerging-market currencies have benefited from expectations of more central bank policy easing,” said Sim Moh Siong, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Singapore Ltd. “I think the market is generally hopeful that the Fed may highlight the risk to inflation from lower oil prices and therefore push back against expectations of tightening” when it meets this week, he said.

The offshore yuan rose for the first time in five days after China stepped up verbal defense of its currency to ward off speculators betting on depreciation. The currency is down 0.6 percent this year, while the onshore yuan has dropped 1.3 percent.

Bonds

Chinese sovereign bonds fell on speculation the central bank will be cautious in cutting lenders’ reserve requirements amid depreciation pressure on the yuan. The 10-year yield rose nine basis points to 2.87 percent in the biggest increase since November.

The yield on similar-maturity Philippine securities dropped seven basis points to 4.30 percent, while that on South Korean notes fell one basis point to 2.03 percent.

Bloomberg

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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