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Ringgit Poised for Steepest Annual Loss as Oil Slumps

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Malaysian Ringgit

The ringgit continue its weakness against the US dollar as plunging crude prices and a money scandal involving Prime Minister Najib Razak damp the economic outlook for the South East Asian nation.

Based on the current global economics, analysts are predicting more weakness in 2016 for Asia’s worst-performing currency in 2015. These analysts believed as the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates in U.S. and slowdown in China weaken demand for commodities from the region, Malaysia net oil income that constitute about 22 percent of government revenue would be affected the more.

The ringgit sank 19 percent to 4.2923 a dollar on Thursday, after reaching 17 year low, 4.48, in September. It is expected to drop additional 2.4 percent to 4.4 by end of Q4 2016, according to survey compiled by Bloomberg.

“The rapid decline in oil prices, the dollar’s bullish bias and domestic issues were the main factors driving the ringgit’s weakness in 2015,” said Christopher Wong, a Singapore-based senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Bhd. “While challenges remain, we see limited weakness in the ringgit in 2016.”

As foreign investors becomes wary of the situation, around 663 million ringgit of Malaysian shares was sold in December, according to a report from MIDF Amanah Investment Bank. Making total sales this year 19.2 billion ringgit. Malaysia foreign exchange reserves stood at $94.9 billion as of December 15, after declining 18 percent this year.

Also, 10-year government bonds increased 12 basis points to 4.20 percent, while that on five year notes lost 36 basis points.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Nigeria’s Annual Remittance Inflow Estimated at $24 Billion -CBN

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Global debt

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has started focusing on how to better harness Nigeria’s huge diaspora remittances as seen in recent foreign exchange policy geared towards stimulating growth and fast-tracking economic recovery with foreign inflows.

On Thursday, the apex bank said it adjusted forex policy to service the economy with diaspora remittances and curb the excesses of few unscrupulous forex dealers.

In an effort to boost remittance inflows and foster an environment that would enable faster, cheaper, and more convenient flow of remittances back to Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria, on November 30, 2020, announced a new policy initiative, which would help to support these objectives,” Godwin Emefiele stated.

Speaking further, he said, “Given the estimated annual remittance inflow of close to $24bn, which could help in improving our balance of payment position, reduce our dependence on external borrowing and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on foreign exchange inflows into the country, the CBN sought to find ways to support improved remittance inflows into the country through official channels.

Based on this premise, we analyzed data on IMTO inflows into the country over the past year, and through our investigations discovered that some IMTOs, rather than compete on improving transaction volumes and create more efficient ways for Nigerians in the Diaspora to remit funds, resorted to engaging in arbitrage arrangements on the naira dollar exchange rate, which to a large extent resulted in a significant drop in flows into the country. It also encouraged the use of unsafe unofficial channels, which also supported diversion of remittance flows meant for Nigeria, thereby undermining our Foreign Exchange management framework.

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Forex

CBN Forced Speculators, Hoarders to Sell Dollar Lower

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interbank

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s new forex policy has forced many speculators and hoarders at the Nigerian parallel market popularly known as the black market to start bringing out their forex at an even lower price.

The Naira to United States Dollar exchange rate moderated from N500 to N470 earlier this morning across the nation’s black market.

Similarly, the local currency exchanged at N620 to a British Pound, an improvement from N640 it was sold on December 1, 2020.

The story is not different against the European common currency as it gained slightly to N570, up from N580 it sold on Tuesday.

The improvements recorded against global counterparts was after the CBN directed that henceforth recipients of foreign remittance can now receive such fund in foreign currency (US Dollar) in cash or through an ordinary domiciliary account.

This means the apex bank planned to inject $20 billion estimated diaspora remittances per year into the real sector of the economy to force hoarders to sell their dollars or lose substantially and also to curb forex dealers in the habit of buying forex directly from the recipient’s domiciliary account because of old CBN policy that restricted them from withdrawing foreign currency in cash.

With this old policy out of the way, recipients of foreign remittances can now withdraw foreign currency and exchange it at any of the registered bureau de change operators across the nation at N392 to a US dollar. The bureau de change rate set by the central bank.

Investors King expects the policy to fast track the recovery process and enhance economic activity across the board, especially at a time when importers are looking for forex to bring in goods in order to meet the usual December high demand.

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Forex

Naira Exchange Rate Improves as CBN Plans to Flood Economy With $20 Billion Diaspora Remittances

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Nigeria 1000 notes

The Naira to US Dollar exchange rate improved by N10 to N490 on Tuesday following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new directive that allows recipients of diaspora remittances to receive their fund in foreign currency (US Dollar) or via their ordinary domiciliary account.

The move was after the apex bank blamed the parallel market for the wide foreign exchange rate and cautioned analysts for using speculative rates as the real Naira/US dollar rate.

Therefore, the apex bank decided to inject $20 billion annual diaspora remittances into the real sector of the economy and hurt the activities of unscrupulous individuals at the parallel market.

Investors King expects this to gradually moderate the nation’s foreign exchange rate against global counterparts, deepen business activities and fast track economic recovery.

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