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U.S. stocks recovered from early losses on Monday

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

U.S. stocks recovered from early losses on Monday to close higher, helped by firmer oil prices, as investors awaited an expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike later in the week.

The S&P 500 benchmark index rallied in the afternoon after falling earlier in the session in a volatile trading day. Concerns about high-yield bonds, oil price swings and the Fed made for a skittish market, said Peter Costa, president of Empire Executions Inc.

“It’s a lot of uncertainty,” he said.

While investors widely expect the Fed to announce its first rate hike in nearly a decade on Wednesday, they are also waiting for commentary from policymakers about what will happen next.

Traders see an 83-percent chance that the Fed will lift rates by 25 basis points, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch program.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 103.29 points, or 0.6 percent, to 17,368.5, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 9.57 points, or 0.48 percent, to 2,021.94 and the Nasdaq Composite.IXIC added 18.76 points, or 0.38 percent, to 4,952.23.

The S&P energy sector .SPNY was up 0.8 percent. U.S. crude oil settled up 1.9 percent after moving within a hair of 11-year lows, but analysts and traders said it is still too early to declare the market reached bottom.

Although stocks closed higher, equity investors are still concerned about the high-yield bond market. Third Avenue Management LLC’s junk bond fund collapsed last week and the company said Monday its chief executive agreed to leave.

“It’s just the fear of the unknown,” said Angel Mata, managing director of listed equity trading, Stifel Capital Markets in Baltimore. “2008 – though it was seven years ago – is still fresh in everybody’s mind and the fear is we could have a kind of situation that we had back then, which was driven by the fixed-income side.”

Nine of the 10 major S&P sectors ended the day higher.

S&P materials .SPLRCM were the only sector to show losses, down 1.4 percent, hurt by Dow Chemical and DuPont, which agreed on Friday to merge. DuPont shares (DD.N) were down 3.6 percent, while Dow Chemical (DOW.N) fell 3.9 percent.

Newell Rubbermaid (NWL.N) was down 6.9 percent at $42.15. Newell, known for its food containers, agreed to buy Sunbeam and Coleman products maker Jarden Corp (JAH.N) for more than $15 billion. Jarden was up 2.7 percent at $54.09.

NYSE declining issues outnumbered advancing ones 2,326 to 810, for a 2.87-to-1 ratio on the downside; on the Nasdaq, 1,804 issues fell and 1,034 advanced, for a 1.74-to-1 ratio favoring decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 54 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 18 new highs and 236 new lows.

About 8.9 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges on Monday, above the 7.03 billion average for the last 20 sessions, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Reuters

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Stable Amid OPEC+ Anticipation and Global Economic Concerns

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices remained relatively unchanged on Thursday as investors awaited the outcome of an eagerly anticipated OPEC+ meeting, which could potentially result in deeper supply cuts in 2024.

Brent crude oil increased by 70 cents to $83.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude inched up by 55 cents to settle at $78.41 a barrel.

The OPEC+ group, comprising the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, is scheduled to conduct virtual meetings on Thursday to discuss additional production cuts, potentially ranging from 1 million to 2 million barrels per day in early 2024.

Implementing these additional cuts may lead to an immediate surge in prices, but their long-term impact is viewed skeptically by industry experts.

Tamas Varga, an oil broker at PVM, expressed doubt about compliance and suggested that the global oil balance might be less tight than OPEC estimates.

Factors such as the latest U.S. commercial inventory data, revealing an unexpected increase of 1.6 million barrels, and persistently high interest rates in major economies could dampen oil demand.

Despite the surprise build in U.S. crude oil stocks reported by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, oil prices remained resilient, with investors focused on the OPEC+ meeting.

Adding to concerns about the demand side, China’s economic challenges persist, highlighted by recent factory data indicating contraction for the second consecutive month in November.

This economic backdrop adds a layer of uncertainty to the oil market, as China is a significant player in global oil consumption.

Investors are closely monitoring the OPEC+ decisions, and the outcome is expected to influence short-term oil prices, although underlying economic challenges continue to cast shadows on the broader outlook for the industry.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Steady Ahead of Crucial OPEC+ Meeting Amidst Fed Rate Hike Signals

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Oil prices maintained their significant gains as traders anticipate the outcome of a crucial OPEC+ meeting on supply while considering signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies.

Global benchmark Brent hovered below $82 a barrel, having surged over 2% on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate traded under $77.

The OPEC+ meeting, scheduled for Thursday to set policies for 2024, is currently grappling with a dispute over output quotas for some African members.

The recent rise in crude prices is underpinned by a weakening dollar, with a Bloomberg gauge of the US currency reaching its lowest level since August.

Federal Reserve policymakers, including Governor Christopher Waller, have hinted at an impending pause in the series of rate hikes, contributing to the bullish sentiment in oil markets.

A softer dollar enhances the appeal of commodities for international buyers.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist for IG Asia Pte in Singapore, commented on the interplay of factors, stating, β€œThe US dollar was dragged lower on a build-up in dovish expectations, which was very much cheered on by oil prices.”

However, concerns persist about OPEC+’s ability to address the challenges in the oil market effectively.

Despite the recent gains, oil is on track for a consecutive monthly decline due to increased supply from non-OPEC countries, intensifying pressure on the cartel and its allies to consider more significant output cuts.

The International Energy Agency’s earlier assessment indicated a potential return to a global crude surplus in the coming year.

In the US, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 817,000-barrel decline in nationwide inventories last week, potentially marking the first drop in six weeks, pending confirmation from government data.

This development may add support to oil prices and impact the ongoing dynamics in the energy market.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Stabilize as OPEC+ Weighs Deeper Output Cuts Amid Global Supply Concerns

Market Evaluates OPEC+ Decision Amidst Bearish Sentiment and Global Supply Worries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices steadied after a recent downward trend as the market assessed the possibility of OPEC+ implementing deeper output cuts to balance the scales against signs of a global supply surplus.

Brent crude hovered below $80 a barrel following a four-day decline, while West Texas Intermediate dipped below $75.

OPEC+’s leader, Saudi Arabia, has urged other member nations to reduce their production quotas to bolster markets, though resistance from some members complicates the decision.

Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd, cautioned oil bears against underestimating Saudi Arabia’s determination, although achieving unanimous support from member states could prove challenging.

The oil market has witnessed a roughly 20% decline since late September due to ample supplies and concerns about the global economic landscape.

This has spurred expectations for the 23-nation alliance to take corrective action at its upcoming online meeting.

A Bloomberg survey revealed that approximately half of respondents anticipate OPEC+ implementing additional measures to tighten the market.

Failure to announce an extra cut of around 1 million barrels per day on top of Saudi Arabia’s existing curbs might result in prices sinking to the low $70s per barrel, according to analysts at Eurasia Group led by Raad Alkadiri.

Reflecting this bearish sentiment, hedge funds have significantly reduced their combined net-long positions in Brent and WTI to the lowest levels since late June.

The International Energy Agency’s warning earlier this month of an impending surplus in markets next year due to a significant deceleration in demand growth has added urgency to OPEC+’s deliberations.

Meanwhile, disruptions caused by a storm in the Black Sea have halted commodity loadings, including crude, from key ports in Russia and Ukraine.

The storm is expected to persist throughout the week, according to Russia’s oil-pipeline operator Transneft PJSC.

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