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Credit Suisse Projects Brent Crude Oil to Reach $60

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Credit Suisse, analyst

The seeming dissolution of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries prompted oil to end this week on a poor note, and more negative catalysts proceeded to emerge. Forecasts of a milder winter, the Venezuelan elections, and the start of a five-day “contract roll” period have all combined to add to the selling pressure, according to Credit Suisse, but this rout may have nearly concluded.

“It is clear to us that technically speaking we may not be that far away from a true bottom,” asserts Jan Stuart, the bank’s global energy economist.

The structure of the Brent futures curve—which lays out the current price of oil for a series of future dates—shows just how pessimistic investors have become on oil, according to the economist.

“We like to keep an eye on the long end of Brent curves because we think it reflects ‘expectations’ and ‘sentiment’ more clearly,” he wrote. “Simply put, the long-dated part of oil futures curves generally involves more managed money (speculative) flow than commercial flow—since most real hedging has a shorter operational time line of six to 18 months, and the few big projects or deals that need long-dated ‘insurance’ add up to little open interest.”

On that note, Brent futures three years out dipped below their 2009 trough this week, hitting their lowest level since 2005:

“[Price] expectations about the future of oil are more bearish than they were even in the depths of the global financial crisis in early 2009,” said the economist.

Widespread pessimism, however, is not a sufficient impetus to spark a recovery. Just look at widely despised energy stocks, which have continued to reward shorts.

But while sentiment is depressed, the fundamentals are less so than they were in 2009, Stuart contends.

“We also have been saying that the fourth quarter of this year would be perilous and expressed concern that new lows might be hit,” he concludes. “It is just that we are not in the ‘lower-forever-more’ camp.”

Credit Suisse projects that Brent crude oil will trade above $60 per barrel in the second half of 2016.

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CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Markets

Communities in Delta State Shut OML30 Operates by Heritage Energy Operational Services Ltd

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Oil

The OML30 operated by Heritage Energy Operational Services Limited in Delta State has been shut down by the host communities for failing to meet its obligations to the 112 host communities.

The host communities, led by its Management Committee/President Generals, had accused the company of gross indifference and failure in its obligations to the host communities despite several meetings and calls to ensure a peaceful resolution.

The station with a production capacity of 80,000 barrels per day and eight flow stations operates within the Ughelli area of Delta State.

The host communities specifically accused HEOSL of failure to pay the GMOU fund for the last two years despite mediation by the Delta State Government on May 18, 2020.

Also, the host communities accused HEOSL of ‘total stoppage of scholarship award and payment to host communities since 2016’.

The Chairman, Dr Harrison Oboghor and Secretary, Mr Ibuje Joseph that led the OML30 host communities explained to journalists on Monday that the host communities had resolved not to backpedal until all their demands were met.

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Crude Oil Recovers from 4 Percent Decline as Joe Biden Wins

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Oil Prices Recover from 4 Percent Decline as Joe Biden Wins

Crude oil prices rose with other financial markets on Monday following a 4 percent decline on Friday.

This was after Joe Biden, the former Vice-President and now the President-elect won the race to the White House.

Global benchmark oil, Brent crude oil, gained $1.06 or 2.7 percent to $40.51 per barrel on Monday while the U.S West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained $1.07 or 2.9 percent to $38.21 per barrel.

On Friday, Brent crude oil declined by 4 percent as global uncertainty surged amid unclear US election and a series of negative comments from President Trump. However, on Saturday when it became clear that Joe Biden has won, global financial markets rebounded in anticipation of additional stimulus given Biden’s position on economic growth and recovery.

Trading this morning has a risk-on flavor, reflecting increasing confidence that Joe Biden will occupy the White House, but the Republican Party will retain control of the Senate,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.

“The outcome is ideal from a market point of view. Neither party controls the Congress, so both trade wars and higher taxes are largely off the agenda.”

The president-elect and his team are now working on mitigating the risk of COVID-19, grow the world’s largest economy by protecting small businesses and the middle class that is the backbone of the American economy.

There will be some repercussions further down the road,” said OCBC’s economist Howie Lee, raising the possibility of lockdowns in the United States under Biden.

“Either you’re crimping energy demand or consumption behavior.”

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Nigeria, Other OPEC Members Oil Revenue to Hit 18 Year Low in 2020

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Revenue of OPEC Members to Drop to 18 Year Low in 2020

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted that the oil revenue of members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will decline to 18-year low in 2020.

EIA said their combined oil export revenue will plunge to its lowest level since 2002. It proceeded to put a value to the projection by saying members of the oil cartel would earn around $323 billion in net oil export in 2020.

If realised, this forecast revenue would be the lowest in 18 years. Lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive this expected decrease in export revenues,” it said.

The oil expert based its projection on weak global oil demand and low oil prices because of COVID-19.

It said this coupled with production cuts by OPEC members in recent months will impact net revenue of the cartel in 2020.

It said, “OPEC earned an estimated $595bn in net oil export revenues in 2019, less than half of the estimated record high of $1.2tn, which was earned in 2012.

“Continued declines in revenue in 2020 could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on revenues from oil sales to import goods, fund social programmes, and support public services.”

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