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The Euro’s Worst Year in a Decade is Looking Even Grimmer

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The euro’s worst year in a decade is looking even grimmer after the Chinese yuan’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of reserve currencies.

The 19-nation currency’s weighting in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket will drop to 30.93 percent, from 37.4 percent, the organization said Monday. The yuan will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in the SDR allocation from Oct. 1, 2016, at a 10.92 percent weighting.

The euro has tumbled 13 percent against the dollar this year, the most in a decade, and central banks have reduced the proportion of the currency in their reserves to the lowest since 2002. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled on Oct. 22 that policy makers are open to boosting stimulus, after embarking on a 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) asset-purchase program in March.

“The euro will get the most impact from this weight adjustment,” said Douglas Borthwick, head of foreign exchange at New York-based brokerage Chapdelaine & Co. “The IMF is taking from euro to give to China; the other rebalancing amounts are largely negligible.”

China’s currency will exceed yen and sterling in the new basket. The levels will be 41.73 percent for the dollar, 8.33 percent for the yen and 8.09 percent for the British pound, the IMF said. The dollar currently accounts for 41.9 percent of the basket, while the pound accounts for 11.3 percent and the yen 9.4 percent.

It’s the first change in the SDR’s currency composition since 1999, when the euro replaced the Deutsche mark and French franc. It’s also a milestone in the yuan’s decades-long ascent toward international credibility. The currency was created after World War II and for years could be used only domestically in the Communist nation. The IMF reviews the composition of the basket every five years and rejected the yuan during the last review, in 2010.

Alternative reserve currency

“The more likely impact is on euro holdings as the yuan, over time, is seen as the main alternative reserve currency to the dollar, replacing the euro in that role,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, senior markets strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. in Singapore. “Further, in 1999 when the euro was introduced, it still took reserve managers four years before they started diversifying into the single currency. So, we shouldn’t expect strong inflows into the yuan in the near term from risk-averse reserve managers.”

The euro has dropped 5.4 percent this quarter against the dollar, the most among 10 developed-market peers. The shared currency was at $1.0580 as of 12:18 p.m. in Tokyo after reaching a seven-month low of $1.0558 on Monday. The yield on Germany’s two-year note was at minus 0.42 percent Monday.

“I do not think it means central banks will decrease euro reserves dramatically near-term but the changes to the SDR and, perhaps, the prevalence of negative rates at the short-end of the euro rate curve more especially, suggests the euro may be less favored among reserve-asset managers,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto.

@NettyIsmail

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Remittance to Nigeria, Other African Countries Hits $53bn in 2022

Remittance to Sub-Sahara Africa rose to $53 billion in this year

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The World Bank report has indicated that remittance to Nigeria and other countries in Sub-Sahara Africa has reached $53 billion in 2022. This represents an increase of 5.2 percent when compared with 2021.

Investors King understands that remittances into Nigeria and Kenya constitute a significant percentage of all the remittances into the African Sub-Sahara region. 

“Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region most highly exposed to the effects of the global crisis, grew an estimated 5.2 percent to $53 billion in 2022, compared with 16.4 percent last year (due mainly to strong flows to Nigeria and Kenya),” the report stated.

According to the World Bank report on Migration and Development, prepared by the bank’s Migration and Remittances Unit and Development Economy, remittance has constituted an important part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for a number of African countries. 

For example, Remittances as a share of GDP in the Gambia is 28 percent while it stood at 21 percent in Lesotho, the report noted. 

The report added that remittances are an important source of household income for most Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). Through remittances, most of the households in the LMICSs have been able to survive harsh economic conditions such as the Covid-19 pandemic. 

“Remittances are a vital source of household income for LMICs. They alleviate poverty, improve nutritional outcomes, and are associated with increased birth weight and higher school enrollment rates for children in disadvantaged households”. 

The World Bank noted that although the rising price of goods has adversely affected migrant incomes, the reopening of the economy and international borders has led to the increase of remittance inflow into Sub Sahara Africa.

Meanwhile, the global bank acknowledges that countries that witnessed scarcity of foreign exchange rates or multiple exchange rates officially recorded a decline in remittances inflow as migrants shift to alternative channels which promise better rates. 

The report noted that sending funds back home from some countries in Europe and America could attract a transaction fee that is as high as 7.8 percent on average. 

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Banking Sector

Insider Dealing: Hafiz Mohammed Bashir Acquires 37 Million Shares in Unity Bank

Alhaji Bashir carried out the acquisition in 32 different transactions at an average price of N0.51 a unit between November 8th and 11th 2022

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The management of Unity Bank Plc has announced that a non-Executive Director, Hafiz Mohammed Bashir scooped 37,681,947 shares of the bank.

The transaction was disclosed in a statement signed by the bank’s secretary, Alaba Williams.

Alhaji Bashir carried out the acquisition in 32 different transactions at an average price of N0.51 a unit between November 8th and 11th 2022, according to the disclosure available on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).

Insider dealing is the buying or selling of a company’s shares by someone with a piece of insider information not available to the public. Insider dealing is illegal in the U.S. but not in Nigeria as long as it’s disclosed.

The Nigerian Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) mandated all listed companies to disclose insider trading to enforce transparency across the nation’s Exchange market.

Also, insider dealings can help stakeholders and retail investors assess the confidence of top company executives in a listed company. While Alhaji Bashir’s acquisition could demonstrate his trust in the future of the company, it could also mean positioning ahead of a major company’s event given his position.

Hafiz Mohammed Bashir Profile

In 2017, Hafiz Mohammed Bashir was appointed as a Non-executive Director following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s approval.

Hafiz Mohammed Bashir is an accomplished professional with vast experience in the public and private sectors. He retired at the apex of Local Government Administration in Katsina State in 1992 and has chaired the Board of many companies – including Fiztom International Ltd, HafadGlobal Resources limited and Fiziks Nigeria limited.

Alh. Hafiz who is currently in private business holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Management from Abubakar Tafawa BalewaUniversity, Bauchi, and an Advance Diploma in Public Administration from the University of Jos, a higher Diploma in Local Government Administration- AhmaduBello University. Zaria and Diploma in Insurance from ABU, Zaria He is also currently undergoing a Master’s programme in Business   Administration at the Business School of the Netherlands.

See the details of the transactions below.

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Loans

Lagos Chamber of Commerce Advised FG on Borrowing, Proffer Solutions to Foreign Exchange Crises

LCCI lamented that additional borrowings will further increase Nigeria’s debt-servicing bill

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry ( LCCI) has advised the Federal Government to explore alternative ways to finance the deficit in the 2023 budget proposal. LCCI lamented that additional borrowings will further increase Nigeria’s debt-servicing bill.

Investors King understands that the 2023 budget proposal as submitted to the National Assembly by the president has a deficit of N10.78 trillion.

Speaking at the organisation’s 134th Annual General Meeting (AGM) held in Lagos, LCCI President, Dr Olawale Cole, stated that although the chamber does not totally frown at the budget deficits, the chamber, however, is not disposed to issuing new commercial loans as well as bilateral and multilateral loans to finance the deficit. 

Dr. Olawale added that while President Buhari alongside other African presidents is seeking debt cancelation from international creditors, the presidents across the African continent keep piling up debts. 

“The world is a bit confused at our president’s well-publicized call for debt cancellation at the last United Nations General Assembly,” he noted.

Speaking further on the danger of the country’s incessant borrowing, Olawale said “the borrowings are significantly increasing, and Nigeria is struggling to service these debts due to revenue mobilisation challenges and an increased fuel subsidy burden”.

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that debt servicing may gulp 100 percent of the federal government’s revenue by 2026 if the government fails to implement adequate measures to improve revenue generation,” he lamented. 

Similarly, the LCCI president also spoke on the foreign exchange challenges in Nigeria. He noted that the major cause of the fall in naira is a result of the drop in oil output and weak production amid increased demand for foreign currency. 

“The real solution to our forex scarcity crises is to boost production and expand exports. We must also resolve the crises around oil production, as 80 percent of forex earnings come from oil and gas exports,” he said. 

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