Finally International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to include Chinese Yuan in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) reserve currency on Monday, November 30. The board is expected to vote on whether to add the Yuan to its basket of reserve currencies after meeting all the requirements of the board.
Pending the decision of the IMF’s executive board, let’s examine possible market reaction:
According to Financial Times, the inclusion of the Chinese Yuan may be “like many Chinese financial reforms: significant in hindsight but harder to get excited about in its early stages.”
This is because the total value of all SDRs is currently around $280 billion, and with most economists estimating Yuan’s inclusion to take up 10 percent of the value of the currency basket, which is $28 billion in value. This is a small amount compared with the volumes traded worldwide. Hence, global financial market might not experience tremendous changes in the short-term.
But on the other hand, if other central banks follow Russia’s footstep by adding Yuan to their reserves after the approval, this would possibly increase the capital inflows to China, again it is not expected to be much because of Chinese current financial downturn and unpredictable nature.
There is speculation that People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will most likely devalue its currency after IMF decision, this could further create volatility similar to what we saw on August 11 when PBOC first devalued.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch thinks “the Yuan could be deceptively stable over the next couple of weeks but reduced intervention and a more flexible fixing would inevitably be associated with a weaker currency – we would potentially look to add to CNH shorts soon after the SDR decision on Nov 30,”
Nevertheless, China’s inclusion in the SDR is significant for China’s victory to raise its global recognition among international communities and validate its growing importance in the global economy.
“It is an indication that the currency is already very important in the world, and it is going to become more important. So symbolically, it is important, but it is not just a symbol; it is a recognition, and also it will undoubtedly increase the willingness of central banks and others to hold and to deal in renminbi [yuan]”, said Mark Boleat, policy chairman at the City of London Corporation.
Government Revenue Surges to N2.07trn in January 2024, FAAC Discloses
The Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) has revealed a significant surge in government revenue to N2.07 trillion in January 2024.
This substantial increase reflects the buoyancy of Nigeria’s economic activities despite various challenges faced by the nation.
According to FAAC’s communiqué issued after its monthly meeting in Abuja, the N2.07 trillion revenue was distributed to meet the financial needs of the federal, state, and local governments.
N1.15 trillion out of the total revenue was disbursed to the various tiers of government, indicating a robust financial inflow.
The breakdown of the revenue distribution showcased that the Federal Government received N407.267 billion, state governments obtained N379.407 billion while N278.041 billion was disbursed to local governments.
Also, N85.101 billion, equivalent to 13% of mineral revenue, was allocated to the states as derivation revenue.
FAAC also highlighted that the revenue composition included N463.1 billion from distributable statutory revenue, N391.8 billion from distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue, N15.9 billion from Electronic Money Transfer Levy revenue, and N279.03 billion from exchange difference revenue.
Despite the impressive revenue figures, FAAC noted a decrease in VAT collection by N71.7 billion compared to the previous month.
This decrease suggests fluctuations in consumer spending and economic activities, which could be influenced by various factors such as policy changes, economic conditions, and consumer sentiment.
Furthermore, FAAC reported increases in revenue from Companies Income Tax, Import Duty, Petroleum Profit Tax, and Oil and Gas Royalties.
However, revenue from Value Added Tax, Export Duty, Electronic Money Transfer Levy, and CET Levies experienced declines during the period.
FAAC’s disclosure of the January 2024 revenue underscores the importance of prudent financial management and effective allocation of resources to drive sustainable economic growth and development in Nigeria.
Private Sector Credit Hits Record High of N76.94 Trillion in January 2024 – CBN Report
Private sector credit in Nigeria reached a record N76.94 trillion in January 2024, according to the latest report from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
This represents a 85.2% year-on-year increase from N41.54 trillion reported in January 2023.
The CBN’s Money and Credit Statistics report unveiled that credit to the private sector experienced a substantial month-on-month surge of 23.06%, or N14.42 trillion, from N62.52 trillion in December 2023.
This surge occurred amid the implementation of the CBN’s policy to unify the naira exchange rate.
Analysts attribute the reported N76.94 trillion credit to the private sector to the recent depreciation of the naira against foreign currencies.
The naira closed at N1,356.88 per dollar in January 2024, representing a 50.87% decline or N457.49 against the dollar compared to December 2023.
This depreciation compelled banks to extend credit to major corporations to meet the CBN’s mandated Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) threshold.
The CBN’s decision to resume the enforcement of the LDR policy, effective July 31, 2023, further propelled banks to increase lending to customers, stimulating the real sector of the economy.
With the CRR mechanism updated, banks with an LDR below the prescribed level faced a 50% lending shortfall penalty.
Experts suggest that the significant increase in private sector credit underscores the growing need for businesses to secure funds amidst economic uncertainties and exchange rate volatility.
It also signifies banks’ efforts to comply with regulatory requirements and support economic growth initiatives.
As Nigeria navigates its economic landscape, stakeholders anticipate further developments in credit dynamics and monetary policies to sustain financial stability and stimulate economic expansion.
Senate Initiates Probe into N30tn Ways and Means Loans under Buhari Administration
The Nigerian Senate has embarked on a comprehensive investigation into the disbursement and utilization of the N30 trillion Ways and Means loans obtained by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
The Ways and Means facility allows the CBN to provide financial support to the government to cover budget shortfalls.
The decision to probe the massive loans comes amid concerns about the transparency and accountability surrounding the utilization of these funds, particularly as the country grapples with economic challenges, food crises, rising inflation, and worsening insecurity.
The Senate’s investigation aims to shed light on how the substantial overdrafts from the CBN were acquired and expended under the leadership of former President Buhari.
There is growing apprehension that the indiscriminate spending of the overdrafts, particularly during Godwin Emefiele’s tenure as CBN governor, may have contributed significantly to the current economic predicament facing the nation.
The probe will delve into the details of the N30 trillion overdrafts, with a specific focus on examining the purpose for which the funds were allocated and how they were utilized.
Also, the Senate will scrutinize the N10 trillion disbursed under the Anchor Borrowers Scheme, as well as the utilization of $2.4 billion out of the $7 billion earmarked for forex transactions.
The initiative underscores the Senate’s commitment to ensuring transparency, fiscal responsibility, and prudent financial management in the country’s economic affairs.
It is anticipated that the probe will unearth vital insights into the financial transactions of the past administration, enabling corrective measures to be taken to address any mismanagement or discrepancies discovered.
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