After gaining 492 pips against the dollar this month, it is important to note that there is possibility of BOJ intervening to restrain Yen gains because one, it’s disrupting Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to attain 2 percent inflation target, two, at 18 months high against the dollar, it is right to say that stronger yen will hurt the competitiveness of Japanese exports going forward.
According to Shusuke Yamada, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist, who predicts that the yen could climb another 8 percent this year said “at 105, there’s a realistic probability of intervention.”
Also, finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday “that rapid fluctuations, whether strengthening or weakening, are undesirable. Recent movements have been one-sided and action will be taken as needed.”
Even Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda during quarterly meeting of Bank of Japan’s branch managers, in Tokyo on Thursday said they are watching currency market.
What this means is that BOJ will sell-off yen at a price considered undesirable for the economy, it could be at 105 or even below 100. This is why yen traders should pay attention to fundamental henceforth.
However, there is another issue prohibiting BOJ to intervene without G-7 approval according to agreement agreed upon by members of G-7 in February.
“As long as Japan belongs to G-7, any intervention will require approval from the U.S.,” which would be “unjustifiable” until 105,” said Ikeda, the head of Japan foreign-exchange research at Nomura Securities.
Others have argued it would take a rally to 95 for any intervention in the current environment.
Japan last sold the yen in 2011, in a multilateral intervention following Fukushima earthquake.