Naira Foreign Exchange Rate to US Dollar to Decline to N430 in 2020
United Capital Plc, a pan-African investment banking and financial services group, on Tuesday said the nation’s official foreign exchange rate may decline to N430 in 2020.
This was after the Central Bank of Nigeria adjusted the Naira exchange rate to a US dollar from N360 to N380 to better accommodate the changes in macroeconomic fundamentals in recent months.
In the company’s economic projection for the second half of the year, titled ‘Nigeria H2 2020 outlook report: Up in the air,’ it said “On the exchange rate, we believe the odds are in favour of a further naira adjustment, which may take the official rate to N410/$ to N430/$ by year-end.
“However, we believe the Central Bank of Nigeria will continue to defend the value of the local unit for as long as it can.”
The report stated that the nation’s growth rate slowed to 1.87 percent in the first quarter of the year, partially reflecting the impacts of COVID-19.
It explained that despite the series of stimulus pumped into the economy by the Federal Government, the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to contract given the vast impact of COVID-19 on businesses and households.
It added, “However, the palliatives and reforms that are being announced may reduce the probability of sliding into a deep recession or quicken recovery once the incidence rate of the pandemic begins to drop and the economy is fully re-opened.
“Overall, the Nigerian economy may enter a technical recession by Q3 2020 (after two consecutive quarters of contraction in Q2 and Q3 2020), with a chance of early recovery by Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.”
The company, therefore, lowered its 2020 real GDP growth projection from 2.3 percent to -2.69 percent.
“The biggest downside risk to the above projections remains the possibility of a second round of lockdown, especially if the virus continues to spread rapidly,” it added.
Naira to Dollar Rate Today: Naira Exchanges at N463 to Dollar on Black Market
Naira to Dollar Rate on Black Market Today Stood at N463
The Nigerian Naira to dollar rate slid slightly against the United States dollar on Tuesday on the black market as social unrest continues to weigh on the nation’s economic outlook.
The local currency lost N1 against the US dollar to N463 while against the British pound it remains pressured at N592.
This decline continues against the European Union’s common currency, the Euro. The Naira traded at N540 to a single Euro on the black market.
Naira to dollar rate plunged amid rising economic uncertainties and unclear policy path caused by both COVID-19 and government limited fiscal buffers to cushion the negative impacts of the virus on Africa’s largest economy.
This coupled with the ongoing social unrest by the Nigerian youths to force decorum across the Nigerian Police Force and call global attention to decades of systemic intimidation and harassment of innocent citizens.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange has been closing flat since Thursday and continued this week, suggesting that investors are concerns and wary of eventualities as they look to safeguard their investments.
Again, the projected third-quarter recession, low foreign revenue generation, weak consumer spending and the rising cost of living are some of the factors hurting the Nigerian Naira outlook.
Naira to a Dollar Exchange Rate Dips to N462 at Black Market Amid Social Unrest
Youth Protests Weigh on Naira to a Dollar Exchange Rate on Black Market
The ongoing youth protest in Nigeria continues to weigh on the economic outlook and investors’ sentiment across the board.
The Nigerian Naira to a US dollar exchange rate declined by N1 from N461 on Tuesday to N462 on Wednesday and in the early hours of Thursday at the black market.
Against the British Pounds, the Naira exchanged at N600, down from the N592 it traded on Tuesday. This decline continues against Europe’s common currency as the Naira dipped against the Euro by N2 from N538 to N540 on the black market.
The nationwide protest by the Nigerian youth to curb police brutality and harassment on daily basis continues to disrupt business activities in Africa’s largest economy.
Nigerian youths are saying enough is enough after the death of several youths by the law enforcement agency, Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), that was constituted to curb robbery but gone rogue and made extortions, harassments and in some cases killing of innocent citizens their means of livelihood.
Despite the government disbanding the unit and promise to redeploy officers to other existing units, commands and formations, the youths are saying they want a total discharge of corrupt officers and the entire reform of the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) before they will even consider backing down on the ongoing protest, especially after politicians started sponsoring thugs to attack peaceful protesters in Lagos and Abuja.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange closed flat on Wednesday amid rising uncertainty surrounding the government’s ability to de-escalate the situation given the fact that the youths no longer trust the administration or Nigerian government.
The Naira remained weak against global counterparts and expected to plunge further once the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) release third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report expected by many experts to plunge the nation into its second recession in four years.
Naira Declines on the Black Market on Tuesday
Naira Plunges Against Global Counterparts on Tuesday on the Black Market
The Nigerian Naira declined on Tuesday on the black market despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to prop up the value of the local currency against global counterparts.
The Naira declined by N4 from N457 per US dollar it traded on Friday to N461 on Tuesday morning. Against the European common currency, the Naira fell by N1 to N538 from N537.
However, the local currency improved by N3 against the British pound from N595 it exchanged on Friday to N592 on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s weak economic outlook continues to weigh on the Naira outlook, especially with the economy projected to enter recession in the third quarter.
Despite efforts to cushion the negative effect of COVID-19 on the nation’s economy, unclear policy path amid weak business sentiment and low foreign revenue generation needed to sustain economic productivity in a majorly import-dependent economy drag on Nigerian Naira value and the entire economic outlook.
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