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European Stocks Rebound as Energy Prices Lift Oil Producers, Natural Gas Soars; Bonds Weaken

European equities climbed back from a one-month low in response to surging energy prices, particularly benefiting oil producers. Meanwhile, natural gas prices experienced a sharp rise, while bond markets exhibited general weakness.

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The trading session across Europe unfolded with a relatively subdued tone, with trading volumes on the Stoxx 600 Index approximately a third lower than the usual average. TotalEnergies SE, Shell Plc, and BP Plc were the three main contributors to the index.

In sync with this upward momentum, US futures contracts indicated an impending recovery for the underlying indices following their weakest performance week since early August.

During this period, the benchmark Dutch front-month gas experienced an astonishing surge of up to 18%, attributed to traders incorporating the potential threat of supply disruptions arising from a prospective strike in Australia. Also, the global benchmark Brent traded above the $85 per barrel mark, marking a rise of over 2% since the previous week’s close on Wednesday.

Yields across various tenors saw an upward trajectory, propelling the 10-year yield towards levels not seen since November 2007, while the 30-year yield approached highs reminiscent of 2011. This trend emerged as a result of the selloff in the Treasury market during the current month, erasing the remaining gains for the year.

The resurgence in stock values follows a period of substantial losses, with the MSCI World Index breaking free from a three-week downward spiral. Investors with a keen eye on the global interest-rate trajectory are set to direct their focus towards the upcoming annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week.

David Henry, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot, emphasized that markets are gradually normalizing post-profit-taking that triggered last week’s retreat. He underscored the existing divergence in the market, highlighting the excessive valuation of certain assets and the marked undervaluation of others. Henry noted investors’ inclination towards quality stocks in preparation for a potential economic downturn, leading them to pay premiums for robustly growing businesses with solid fundamentals.

Friday is anticipated to hold significance as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to adopt “a more balanced tone in Wyoming, hinting at the tightening cycle’s end while underscoring the need to hold rates higher for longer,” as stated by Anna Wong from Bloomberg Economics.

In the realm of corporate earnings, the highlight of the week falls on Wednesday’s report from Nvidia Corp., a leading chipmaker whose impressive revenue forecast played a pivotal role in igniting this year’s surge in AI-related stocks.

Conversely, the mood in Asian markets painted a darker picture. The region’s stock gauge extended its decline for the seventh consecutive day, marking the longest losing streak since June 2022. Simultaneously, mainland Chinese shares saw a decline of 1.4%.

Uncertainty surrounding China’s strategy to address the nation’s property market decline weighed on sentiment. Despite policymakers calling for increased lending, Chinese lenders chose to lower the one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points while maintaining the five-year prime loan rates unchanged. This decision contradicted traders’ expectations of a 15-basis-point cut on both rates.

In other market movements, a gauge of the dollar’s strength displayed minimal fluctuations, while the offshore yuan faced depreciation against the greenback. The People’s Bank of China had previously established the daily reference rate for the yuan at a level stronger than the consensus estimate from a Bloomberg survey.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Nigerian Stock Market Sinks as Benchmark Index Hits January Levels

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The Nigerian equity market closed in the red on Tuesday as the benchmark index plummeted to levels last seen in January.

The All-Share Index (ASI) dropped to 97,473.98 points, mirroring the bearish sentiment that prevailed earlier in the year.

Similarly, the market capitalization of listed stocks also experienced a sharp decline, falling to N55.132 trillion, a level reminiscent of the market’s performance in January when it reached N55.583 trillion.

This decline marks a stark reversal from the bullish trend that characterized the latter part of 2023 and spilled over into the early months of 2024.

Analysts had long anticipated a correction in the market, citing the unsustainable nature of the rally driven largely by sentiment rather than fundamental economic or market improvements.

David Adonri, a seasoned stockbroker, described the previous bullish run as sentiment-driven, noting that while the equities market had recorded impressive gains of 39.84 percent in the first quarter of 2024, it lacked substantial support from economic or market fundamentals.

Despite efforts to reignite investor interest through corporate actions and announcements, such as the Central Bank of Nigeria’s plans for a recapitalization exercise, the market struggled to maintain momentum.

Other investment avenues offering better yields further diverted attention away from equities.

The day’s trading session saw notable declines in the share prices of key players such as Dangote Sugar and PZ Cussons, both recording a 10 per cent drop, extending their stay on the losers’ chart.

The Initiates Plc, a waste management firm, also witnessed a similar decline in its share price.

Trading activities painted a gloomy picture as total deals, volume, and value all depreciated significantly compared to the previous day.

Sectoral performance reflected the overall bearish sentiment with declines observed in banking, insurance, and consumer goods indices.

While the industrial goods index saw a marginal rise, the oil and gas sector remained stable amidst the turmoil.

AccessCorp emerged as the most traded security by volume, while GTCO led in traded value, highlighting investor interest in specific stocks despite the market-wide downturn.

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Bonds

Investor Appetite Wanes as FG Bond Auction Sees Lowest Participation of the Year

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Subscription for the Federal Government bond auction on May 13, 2024 was the lowest so far in 2024.

Despite the subdued interest, the government successfully raised N380.76 billion, albeit experiencing a 39 per cent reduction compared to the proceeds from the previous month’s auction.

The aggregate subscription across all tenors amounted to N551.316 billion, representing a decrease from the N920.08 billion recorded in the preceding month.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reported a non-competitive allotment of N301.30 billion.

The auction featured various bond tenors with the new 9-year bond taking center stage. This bond attracted substantial interest, garnering N373.875 billion in subscriptions.

Of this amount, N285.124 billion was allotted, inclusive of N179.00 billion under non-competitive bids.

The bids ranged from 16.95 per cent to 22.00 per cent, eventually settling at a marginal rate of 19.89 per cent.

Meanwhile, the 7-year bond received bids totaling N76.875 billion, with N62.975 billion allotted. Non-competitive allotments accounted for N85.80 billion.

The bids ranged from 17.20 per cent to 20.80 per cent, resulting in a final marginal rate of 19.74 per cent.

In addition, the 5-year bond attracted bids amounting to N100.56 billion, with an allotment of N32.67 billion.

An additional N36.500 billion was allocated through non-competitive bids. Bids spanned from 17.50 per cent to 21.00 per cent, and the marginal rate was set at 19.29 per cent.

The subdued subscription level in May 2024 indicates a lack of robust investor participation in government bonds compared to previous auctions.

This decline in investor interest could be attributed to various factors, including prevailing market conditions, economic uncertainties, and evolving investment preferences.

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Stock Market

Retail Traders Revive Meme-Stock Craze with GameStop and AMC Rally

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Meme-stock traders have reignited the flame that propelled shares of GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. to record heights once again.

GameStop, the video-game retailer at the center of the meme-stock phenomenon, appreciated by 60% in stock price to gain as much as 113% earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, AMC, the struggling movie theater chain, saw its shares rise by 32%, triggering multiple trading halts throughout the trading session.

The abrupt and dramatic swings in both stocks indicated the resurgent fervor among retail investors.

This latest rally was sparked by the return of Keith Gill, famously known as “Roaring Kitty” on social media, who played a pivotal role in driving the meme-stock mania of 2021.

Gill’s reappearance online reignited enthusiasm among day traders on platforms like Reddit, reviving interest in GameStop and AMC.

Amid the fervent trading activity, AMC announced the successful completion of a previously announced at-the-market offering of shares, raising approximately $250 million in total.

The company sold 72.5 million shares at an average price of $3.45, bolstering its financial position amidst the stock surge.

Tuttle Capital Management CEO, Matthew Tuttle, commented on the developments, stating, “I think it shaped up pretty good for everybody here.

They did what they needed to do, and the shareholders didn’t get wiped out.”

The rally in AMC’s stock also had a significant impact on its bonds, with its notes experiencing substantial gains in high-yield trading.

AMC’s 10% bond due 2026 surged as much as 11.25 cents on the dollar to 87 cents, reflecting investor optimism fueled by the stock’s resurgence.

While the recent surge in GameStop and AMC stocks echoes the frenzy of 2021, trading volumes and activity still fall short of the peak reached during the meme-stock craze of that period.

Despite this, GameStop ranked as the second-most traded stock by retail investors for out-of-the-money call option volumes on Monday, signaling sustained interest in the meme-stock universe.

As retail traders continue to drive momentum in GameStop and AMC, market observers remain vigilant, watching closely for further developments in this evolving saga of retail-driven stock market dynamics.

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