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Nigerians Brace for Tougher Times: Electricity Tariff Set to Surge by Over 40%

Nigerians Brace for 40% Surge in Electricity Tariff, Tougher Times Ahead
Energy Subsidies on the Verge of Extinction as Nigeria Prepares for Tariff Hike
President Tinubu’s Administration Faces Acid Test with Impending Electricity Tariff Increase

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Power - Investors King

Nigeria is bracing itself for a challenging period ahead as the electricity tariff is set to increase by more than 40%, potentially putting an end to all energy subsidies in the country.

With a monthly subsidy of approximately N50 billion still present in the electricity sector due to revenue shortfalls, the tariff hike scheduled for July 1st will be another significant test for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration’s market reform efforts.

The administration has already eliminated subsidies on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and implemented a floating exchange rate for the naira, both of which have complicated the price-setting process of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) 2022 Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO).

Despite signing contracts with NERC to ensure a supply of at least 5,000 megawatts per year, the power sector players have been unable to meet this target.

In 2015, the average tariff for distribution companies (DisCos) and different customer classes was N25 per kilowatt. However, in the 2020 MYTO, the average tariff rose to N60 per kilowatt, and in the 2022 MYTO, it further increased to N64 per kilowatt across customer classes.

Foreign exchange rates and inflation have played a crucial role in determining the tariffs. The exchange rate used in 2015 was N198.97/$, which increased to N383.80/$ in 2020, and N441.78/$ in 2022. Inflation rates used were 8.3% in 2015, 12% in 2020, and 16.97% in 2022.

Currently, the inflation rate stands at 22.41%, with projections indicating it could reach 30% by the end of June due to the floating of the naira and the removal of PMS subsidies.

Besides inflation, other factors such as the metering gap of over seven million, gas prices, losses, and actual generation capacity also contribute to the determination of tariffs.

While NERC’s projected tariff for July 2023 aimed to remove subsidies and increase the previously frozen tariff bands D and E, the prevailing floating of the naira and rising inflation are expected to push the new average tariff to approximately N88 per kilowatt, allowing the sector to recover its costs.

Stakeholders have expressed concerns over the unavoidable tariff increase and its potential impact on households and small businesses. Energy costs alone are expected to rise by over 70%, placing further strain on purchasing power amidst high unemployment and poverty rates, which form significant challenges for the economy.

As of now, the available electricity on the grid stands at 3,057.7 megawatts from 17 power plants. Over the past four months, the average load intake of all DisCos has been around 3,000 megawatts, falling significantly short of the 100% remittance orders they are required to meet.

The unreliability of the grid and subsequent financial losses have raised concerns among stakeholders about the future of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Market. Consumer apathy towards the system and the increasing reliance on alternative energy sources are compounding the sector’s challenges.

Energy expert, Prof Wunmi Iledare, expressed concerns about the restructuring of the forex market and its potential devaluation of the naira. He emphasized the importance of supporting the government’s efforts to decouple the economy from forex instability, even if it means accepting higher electricity tariffs and petroleum product prices.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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