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President Tinubu’s Bold Reforms Ignite Excitement Among Foreign Investors

Foreign Investors Embrace President Tinubu’s Economic Reforms with Enthusiasm
Senior Banker Affirms Positive Sentiment Surrounding President Tinubu’s Reforms
Investors Delighted as Tinubu Puts Nigeria Back on the Global Investment Map

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The ongoing economic reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have ignited a wave of excitement within the foreign investor community, signaling a remarkable shift in Nigeria’s position on the global stage.

“The excitement about the new president and his reforms is palpable,” stated a senior banker at a U.K.-based financial institution.

“I was in three cities in the United States last week to see clients and everybody was talking about Nigeria. “He has put Nigeria back at the top of the agenda, in a positive way,” the banker said.

Tinubu’s reforms have succeeded in placing Nigeria at the forefront of international attention, generating positive expectations for the country’s economic future.

Nigeria is on the lips of foreign investors again after nearly a decade of slipping under the radar.

Such is the rate at which President Tinubu has taken the world by surprise with bold reforms that looked impossible in the eight years prior to his assumption of Nigeria’s top office late last month.

Costly petrol subsidies were gone on his first day in office, paving the way for a tripling in petrol prices. He immediately embarked on “thorough house-cleaning of monetary policy” with the suspension of Godwin Emefiele as CBN governor followed by the deregulation of the foreign exchange market.

The reforms have brought pain to Nigerians who now spend three times more to fill their car tanks.

What Tinubu has achieved in weeks, his immediate predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, could not in years. That leads to the first set of questions foreign investors have been asking about Nigeria in the past week.

“Why is the new president able to do these things and Buhari wasn’t and why is no one protesting,” one foreign investor asked.

Buhari had avoided these tough calls for fear of the social unrest they could spark in a country where poverty is rife and inflation is at a record-high.

Tinubu has, however, made light work of the difficult reforms and has done so while quelling protests that initially threatened to erupt as a result.

Taking away cheap fuel from people that had grown accustomed to the practice for many years was not going to happen without a fight.

Joe Ajaero, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) president had called out his members to protest the subsidy removal riding on the confidence from 2012’s success when the government eventually backed off from an attempt to end the costly subsidy. But the story is scripted differently this time.

A counter-offensive from Tinubu began with a well-written legal paper that provided ammunition for a court action to stop the planned strike.

The paper had given solid grounds to see the position of NLC as illegal following a judgement by the Supreme Court in a similar case instituted in 2002.

In that case brought against the electricity workers which sought to stop the privatisation of state assets, the Supreme Court justices ruled on May 24, 2010, that the “right of the members of a trade union to assemble together and act as a trade union is not absolute and must be exercised within the ambit of Section 45 of the 1999 constitution which states that none of the fundamental rights guaranteed under the constitution shall invalidate “any law that is reasonably justifiable in a democratic society in the interest of defence, public safety, order, public morality or public health.”

In the counsel to the government, it was said that the removal of subsidy on petrol is a matter of government policy, and it does not in any way concern the basis for the existence of a trade union in Nigeria, therefore, the NLC cannot be at the forefront of discussions by the government as to how to manage the implementation of subsidy removal.

The conclusion was that the only credible parties to the discussion should be the tiers of government and especially the state governors who constitute the national economic council.

Tinubu also had to pull his political strings to ensure there was no going back on the petrol subsidy removal.

There were political machineries set up to challenge the call for the strike.

Governors, political leaders, friends, and allies of Tinubu moved quickly to douse the fire in their own states, and it soon became clear that even if the strike had commenced, it was going to be a near-total failure in the north.

The opposition parties could not also resist the fuel subsidy removal, as some of their governors had been in the room last year when a collective decision was made under the auspices of the NEC to define petrol subsidy as being harmful and unsustainable and proposed ways for removing it and dealing with the consequences of its removal.

Following this, a reform that had been stuck for at least eight years is beginning to occur in Nigeria with foreign investors talking about it.

“He’s clearly a deft politician and a smart man,” a former senior government official said. I tell people I get the sense he’s too rich and too old not to do the right thing.

“He has always had the capacity to bring people together: he had non-indigene commissioners in his cabinet and brokered the alliance that brought the north and the south to vote for Buhari,” the government official said.

The dust had not fully settled on the subsidy removal when Tinubu suspended Emefiele, the CBN governor. The acting governor immediately floated the naira, another reform that was stuck for eight years, and the stock market rallied to a 15-year high.

Foreign investors also wonder who the next CBN governor will be. Tinubu’s admittance of the need for monetary policy house cleaning gives some comfort to investors spooked by Nigeria’s unorthodox policies.

“We are certainly going in the right direction and it’s very exciting to see. If we continue like this, Nigeria will be unrecognisable in four years,” the CEO of a top Nigerian investment bank said.

At least three foreign banks wrote about Nigeria last week, the highest frequency since 2015.

Standard Chartered, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have all noted their positive surprise at the speed in the execution of reforms in Africa’s largest economy. They see even more surprises ahead.

“We believe there is room for incremental positive surprises with respect to reform depth and execution speed,” JP Morgan analysts said.

“We had high expectations for the new administration’s reform agenda, however, the speed of execution has proven to be a positive surprise,” the analysts said.

A lot of the talk in the foreign investor community is also around what happens next and what Tinubu’s cabinet will look like.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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