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Nigerians Brace for Tougher Times: Electricity Tariff Set to Surge by Over 40%

Nigerians Brace for 40% Surge in Electricity Tariff, Tougher Times Ahead
Energy Subsidies on the Verge of Extinction as Nigeria Prepares for Tariff Hike
President Tinubu’s Administration Faces Acid Test with Impending Electricity Tariff Increase

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Power - Investors King

Nigeria is bracing itself for a challenging period ahead as the electricity tariff is set to increase by more than 40%, potentially putting an end to all energy subsidies in the country.

With a monthly subsidy of approximately N50 billion still present in the electricity sector due to revenue shortfalls, the tariff hike scheduled for July 1st will be another significant test for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration’s market reform efforts.

The administration has already eliminated subsidies on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and implemented a floating exchange rate for the naira, both of which have complicated the price-setting process of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) 2022 Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO).

Despite signing contracts with NERC to ensure a supply of at least 5,000 megawatts per year, the power sector players have been unable to meet this target.

In 2015, the average tariff for distribution companies (DisCos) and different customer classes was N25 per kilowatt. However, in the 2020 MYTO, the average tariff rose to N60 per kilowatt, and in the 2022 MYTO, it further increased to N64 per kilowatt across customer classes.

Foreign exchange rates and inflation have played a crucial role in determining the tariffs. The exchange rate used in 2015 was N198.97/$, which increased to N383.80/$ in 2020, and N441.78/$ in 2022. Inflation rates used were 8.3% in 2015, 12% in 2020, and 16.97% in 2022.

Currently, the inflation rate stands at 22.41%, with projections indicating it could reach 30% by the end of June due to the floating of the naira and the removal of PMS subsidies.

Besides inflation, other factors such as the metering gap of over seven million, gas prices, losses, and actual generation capacity also contribute to the determination of tariffs.

While NERC’s projected tariff for July 2023 aimed to remove subsidies and increase the previously frozen tariff bands D and E, the prevailing floating of the naira and rising inflation are expected to push the new average tariff to approximately N88 per kilowatt, allowing the sector to recover its costs.

Stakeholders have expressed concerns over the unavoidable tariff increase and its potential impact on households and small businesses. Energy costs alone are expected to rise by over 70%, placing further strain on purchasing power amidst high unemployment and poverty rates, which form significant challenges for the economy.

As of now, the available electricity on the grid stands at 3,057.7 megawatts from 17 power plants. Over the past four months, the average load intake of all DisCos has been around 3,000 megawatts, falling significantly short of the 100% remittance orders they are required to meet.

The unreliability of the grid and subsequent financial losses have raised concerns among stakeholders about the future of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Market. Consumer apathy towards the system and the increasing reliance on alternative energy sources are compounding the sector’s challenges.

Energy expert, Prof Wunmi Iledare, expressed concerns about the restructuring of the forex market and its potential devaluation of the naira. He emphasized the importance of supporting the government’s efforts to decouple the economy from forex instability, even if it means accepting higher electricity tariffs and petroleum product prices.

Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Economy

Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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Economy

IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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