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Dangote Refinery: Nigeria on Track to Save N35 Trillion in Fiscal Expenditure as Operations Commence

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Godwin Emefiele - Investors King

Nigeria is poised to witness a monumental shift in its economic landscape as the highly anticipated Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals commence operations.

This game-changing development is expected to result in a staggering savings of approximately N35 trillion in fiscal expenditure over the next five years.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, made this revelation during the inauguration ceremony of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical facility in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos. This colossal refinery, boasting the title of the world’s largest single-train petroleum refiner, has captured the attention of both domestic and international stakeholders.

President Muhammadu Buhari, who officiated the inauguration, expressed his administration’s commitment to fostering public-private partnerships. He hailed the Dangote Refinery as a monumental milestone for Nigeria’s economy and a transformative force within the downstream petroleum market across the African continent.

Reflecting on the journey that led to this historic moment, President Buhari recalled his visit to the refinery complex a year ago during its construction phase. Aliko Dangote, the Group Chairman of Dangote Industries, had assured the President that the refinery would be operational before the end of his tenure.

Buhari applauded the Dangote Group’s leadership in putting Nigeria on the global map through bold investments in critical industries such as cement and fertilizer, which have transformed the nation into a net exporter.

The Dangote Refinery, situated within the Dangote Industries Free Zone in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State, attracted a distinguished audience comprising governors, lawmakers, government officials, royal figures, industry leaders, and notable Nigerians from all walks of life.

President Buhari underscored the significance of the refinery as a catalyst for economic revival, particularly in light of the myriad challenges faced by Nigeria over the years. From enduring years of economic stress and insurgency to navigating external crises like the global financial crisis, plummeting oil prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war, Nigeria’s economy has weathered a storm of formidable proportions. These challenges have strained the nation’s financial resources, compelling the government to seek alternative avenues for infrastructure development without resorting to excessive borrowing.

The Dangote Refinery emerges as a beacon of hope amidst these trials, providing a much-needed boost to Nigeria’s private sector and stimulating investments across critical sectors. Emefiele, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, stressed that the refinery’s commencement would not only support the government’s fiscal operations but also alleviate the burden of funding fuel subsidies.

Fuel subsidy costs, which are projected to reach N4.4 trillion by the end of 2022, have risen exponentially over the past few years. The Dangote Refinery’s operations could spare Nigeria an astonishing N5 trillion to N7 trillion annually in fiscal expenditure, offering substantial relief to the national budget.

Beyond fiscal savings, the Dangote Refinery’s impact extends to job creation and energy transformation. Aliko Dangote reiterated his commitment to replicate the success achieved in the cement and fertilizer sectors.

The refinery’s production is set to meet Nigeria’s domestic demand for high-quality petroleum products, effectively eliminating the influx of toxic substandard products. By prioritizing import substitution, Nigeria aims to become self-sufficient and export petroleum products to 53 African countries that currently rely on external sources.

The economic benefits of the Dangote Refinery are immense. The project is expected to generate over 135,000 permanent jobs, while millions of indirect employment opportunities will be created.

Moreover, the refinery’s operation will contribute to the national power supply, generating an impressive 12,000MW of electricity. This substantial energy output will have a multiplier effect on various sectors, supporting the growth of diverse value chains and propelling

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Pension

PFAs Posted Decent Growth – Coronation Economic Note

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pension funds - Investors King

According to the latest monthly report released by Nigeria’s Pension Commission (PENCOM), the assets under management (AUM) of the regulated pension industry increased by +26.2% y/y to N19.7trn.

Meanwhile on an m/m basis, the AUM decline marginally by -0.5%.

This marks the first decline since September ’22. Notably, FGN debt securities accounted for 62% of the total AUM in March ’24. Meanwhile, other asset classes such as private equities, real estate, and infrastructure funds, accounted for 0.4%, 1.4%, and 0.8% of total AUM, respectively.

Total FGN debt securities held by the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) increased by +19.7%
y/y but declined marginally by -1.4% m/m.

Specifically, we note that the FGN bond instruments held by the PFAs increased by +17.2% y/y to N11.5trn, but declined by -2.4% m/m, on the back of a 10-year tenure FGN bond maturity (N719.9bn). The FGN bonds account for 58% of the total AUM.

FGN bonds remain attractive due to its lower risk profile and elevated yields. It is worth noting that the average FGN bond yield increased by +219bps m/m as at end-March ‘24.

The PENCOM report shows that NTBs held by PFAs grew by +120% y/y and increased by +42.5% m/m to N407.6bn in March ’24. We note that the average NTB yield increased by +250bps m/m as at end-March’24.

This asset class accounted for just 2.1% of the total AUM in the same month.

Meanwhile, State government securities held by the PFAs increased by 64.1% y/y to N266.2bn in March ‘24.

It is worth highlighting that domestic equity holdings surged by 99.6% y/y and 8.7% m/m to N2.1trn in the same period, accounting for 10.6% of the total AUM in March ‘24 compared with 9.7% in February ’24. The NGX-all-share index (NGX-ASI) rose by +90.6% y/y and +4.6% during the same period.

Furthermore, YTD (28-March ’24) return on index rose by +18.1% to close at 39.8% from 33.7% in February ’24.

Recently, the market has shown a bearish trajectory as the NGX-ASI declined by -6.1% m/m as at end-April ‘24, partly, on the back of relatively weak corporate earnings amid inflationary conditions. Given expectations of higher yields in the fixed income market on the back of continuous tightening or a hold stance of the CBN at the next MPC meeting, PFAs are likely to reallocate a greater portion of pension assets to fixed income securities.

According to PENCOM, the total pension contributions since inception remitted to the Individual Retirement Savings Account (RSA) increased by +17.3% y/y to N9.9trn as at end-December ‘23 compared with N8.5trn recorded as at end-December ‘22. Remittance from the public sector accounts for 52%, while private sector accounts for 48% of the total pension contributions.

This can be partly attributed to improvement in the efforts to expand pension coverage.

Notably, PENCOM added a total number of 8,927 micro pension contributors in Q4 ’23 bringing the total number of registered MPCs in the Micro pension plan from inception to 114,382 as at end-December ’23 from 89,327 as at end-December ’22.

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Banking Sector

GTCO Plc’s Profit Before Tax Grows by 587.5% to N509.35 Billion in Q1, 2024

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GTCO Commemorates Listing on Nigerian Exchange - Investors King

Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) Plc, one of Nigeria’s leading financial institutions, has unveiled its first quarter (Q1) financial results for the period ending March 31, 2024.

According to the report submitted to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX), GTCO recorded a 587.5% growth in profit before tax (PBT) to N509.35 billion.

This substantial increase in pre-tax profit represents a significant jump from the N74.089 billion reported in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The financial statement also revealed a 227.93% rise in income tax to N52.213 billion, compared to N15.922 billion in the same period of 2023.

As a result, GTCO’s profit after tax (PAT) for the first quarter of 2024 rose to N457.134 billion, an exceptional growth of 685.9% from N58.167 billion recorded in the first quarter of the previous year.

The strong performance of GTCO can be attributed to several key factors. The Group’s loan book increased by 21.9% rising from N2.48 trillion recorded in December 2023 to N3.02 trillion by March 2024.

Similarly, deposit liabilities grew by 26.0% from N7.55 trillion in December 2023 to N9.51 trillion in March 2024.

Despite the challenging economic environment, GTCO’s balance sheet remained well-structured, diversified, and resilient.

Total assets closed at an impressive N13.0 trillion while shareholders’ funds stood solid at N2.0 trillion.

Commenting on the outstanding financial results, Mr. Segun Agbaje, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, expressed optimism about the future.

He said the robust performance across all business verticals reaffirmed the value of the Holding Company Structure.

“Our first quarter results reflect the unfolding value of what we have created in all our business verticals through the Holding Company Structure – from Banking and Payments to Funds Management and Pension,” said Mr. Agbaje.

“We are positioned to compete effectively on all fronts and fulfill all our customers’ needs under a unified, thriving financial ecosystem.”

The growth in profitability underscores GTCO’s resilience, strategic focus, and unwavering commitment to delivering superior value to its stakeholders amidst evolving market dynamics.

As the Group continues to leverage its strengths and innovative capabilities, it remains well-positioned to navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial services industry with confidence and resilience.

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Banking Sector

UBA Plc Reports 166% Surge in Q1 Profit to N143 Billion

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc has made a significant leap in its financial performance, reporting a 166% surge in its first-quarter profit to N143 billion.

The details, disclosed in the financial services group’s unaudited report for the first quarter, showed a robust growth trajectory despite challenging market conditions.

This surge translates to a 169.4% year-on-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to N3.96 in the first three months of the year, up from N1.47 reported in the same quarter of 2023.

According to the financial results, interest income rose by 129.7% year on year to N440.76 billion. The bank also witnessed a significant uptick in investment, reporting a 147.1% year-on-year growth.

UBA’s interest expense saw an increase of 93.9% year on year to N140.09 billion. This was attributed to higher costs incurred on deposits from customers, deposits from financial institutions, and borrowings.

Despite this, customers’ deposits grew by 112.6% year on year to N18.38 trillion.

Net interest income also grew by 151.3% year on year to N300.68 billion from about N120 billion in the previous year.

Furthermore, non-interest income advanced by 38.9% year on year to N77.91 billion, fueled by expansions in net fees and commission income and net FX trading income.

At the end of Q1, UBA’s operating income stood at N373.31 billion, a 122.5% year-on-year increase.

However, operating expenses saw an uptick of 104.1% year on year, driven by expansions in employee benefits, regulatory costs, and inflationary pressures.

Despite these challenges, the group’s profit-before-tax surged by 154.7% year on year to N156.34 billion from N61.37 billion a year ago.

Net profit also increased by 166.1% year on year to N142.58 billion from N53.59 billion in the previous year.

UBA’s stellar performance in the first quarter underscores its resilience, strategic positioning, and commitment to delivering value to shareholders amid evolving market dynamics. As the bank continues to navigate challenges and seize opportunities, it remains poised for sustained growth and value creation in the financial services sector.

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