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Forward Steps Required for Affordable Housing – Coronation Merchant Bank

Housing supply remains inadequate in Nigeria. Official records place the country’s housing deficit at 28 million units.

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Housing - Investors King

Housing supply remains inadequate in Nigeria. Official records place the country’s housing deficit at 28 million units. According to the latest national accounts, the real estate sector grew by 5.3% y/y in Q1 ‘22 and has averaged a growth rate of 5.6% over the past eight quarters.

Housing finance remains in its infancy. Nigeria’s mortgage/GDP ratio of 0.6% compares with South Africa’s 23%, Tunisia’s 10.6% Kenya’s 2.1%, and Ghana’s 0.8%.

According to the FGN’s national development plan (2021-2025), the FGN intends to improve access to affordable housing by constructing between 500,000 – 1 million houses per year. The goal is to boost the real estate to GDP ratio to 8.4% y/y by 2025. It is currently 4.4%.

Coronation Merchant Bank noted that there are several priority sectors and so the FGN has competing claims for its limited budgetary funds. In the 2022 budget, the FGN allocated N12bn to the national housing program, compared with N11.9bn allocated last year.

Additionally, N10bn was allocated to social housing scheme (family homes fund), N2.1bn for new social housing in Iponri Lagos State and N1bn for new prototype housing scheme in Niger and Lagos states.

In July ’22, the MPC/CBN raised the policy rate to 14% in an attempt to combat rising inflation. The headline inflation is currently 18.60% y/y. As at June ‘22, prime and maximum lending rates were 12.9% and 27.6% respectively vs 11.96% and 27.37% in the previous month. According to the CBN, mortgage loans to the private sector by primary mortgage banks (PMBs) stood at N198.3bn in June ’22 vs N187.8bn in the corresponding period of 2021.

The Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) is the principal public financing institution, tasked with addressing housing challenges in the country. The bank provides national housing fund (NHF) loans at 4% interest to accredited PMBs for on-lending at 6% to NHF contributors over a maximum tenor of 30 years.

This is in addition to providing estate development loans to private developers, state housing corporations and housing cooperatives.

Furthermore, the bank provides a rent-to own mortgage scheme whereby the period for rental payment is 30 years with an interest rate of 7% of the property price. Other mortage products offered by FMBN include; home renovation loans, construction loans and diaspora mortgage loans.

Since 2017, the FMBN has issued c.4,985 mortgages and disbursed home renovation loans valued at N49.3bn to 60,500 beneficiaries. We understand that the construction of at least 9,500 affordable housing units across the country were financed by FMBN.

Similarly, the Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company (NMRC) is expected to deepen the primary and secondary mortgage markets by providing liquidity to the mortgage market and enhancing the maturity structure of the industry’s loans. As at December ‘21, NMRC disclosed that it had refinanced mortgage loans totaling N21.1bn compared with N17.4bn in 2020.

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) targeted at mass housing schemes should be encouraged. Although there are commendable steps with regards to this collaborative effort, there is still vast room for improvement. The Federal Housing Authority (FHA) recently completed 1,016 affordable housing units in select locations across the FCT, Bayelsa and Cross River. To expand this project to other states such as Imo, Rivers and Lagos, the FHA has considered leveraging PPPs.

On a separate note, it is worth highlighting that the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) recently raised c.N72bn (USD167.9m) for real estate companies quoted on its platform. Furthermore, NGX intends to launch an “impact board” to support the listing of social bonds that would raise capital to meet housing sector needs.

Funds held by pension fund administrators (PFAs) can be channeled towards providing affordable housing. As at June ’22, assets under management (AUM) totalled N14.2trn. However, funds allocated to the real estate and real estate investment trust (REIT) asset classes account for less than 2% of total AUM.

PFAs could consider increasing their exposure to funds or companies in the housing value chain, pursuant to PENCOM investment guidelines. Bespoke instruments such as mortgage-backed securities would also assist in capital formation and reduce the housing deficit.

Another challenge faced by the housing sector, is the lack of a robust housing database. There is a silo-working approach regarding data gathering within the sector. Developers, real estate agents and financers tend to build their respective in-house database but seem reluctant to share publicly due to concerns around market share expansion.

Meanwhile, data collected by regulators with oversight on investment, urban development, and participation in property markets is not readily available in the public domain. The dearth of data contributes to the sluggish pace in homeownership and affordable housing initiatives.

The rising cost of building materials poses as another challenge impacting housing supply and affordability. The heavy reliance on imported inputs (such as, building materials) used for construction exposes the sector to passthrough effects that emerge from exchange rate depreciations. Industry sources suggest that c.55% of building materials are imported.

Given its importance in driving socio-economic development, affordable housing remains at the front burner not just in Nigeria but across other African countries. Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, housing shortage in Ghana was recorded at c.2 million housing units.

The government proposed several affordable housing interventions, including resuscitating initiatives that were stalled at various stages of development. However, given the current macroeconomic environment – rising inflation, a depreciating local currency and high public debt, fiscal prudence is required, and this could affect projects geared towards affordable housing initiatives. Ghana plans to trim its 2022 national budget by c.30%.

We note that the housing deficit in Kenya is also estimated at 2 million units. However, given the steady pace of urbanization, the housing deficit is expected to widen. Based on local newswires, at least 500,000 affordable housing units are expected to be delivered in 2022 (i.e. c.1% of Kenya’s total population).

The construction sector posted growth of 6.4% y/y in Q2 ’22 and is regarded as one of the country’s green shoots. Meanwhile, South Africa continues to struggle with adequate and affordable housing. The housing deficit is estimated at 3.7 million units, and this can be partly attributed to relatively high poverty and unemployment levels. South Africa’s unemployment rate has hit 34.4%, rural-urban migration has contributed to rising unemployment rate.

In Nigeria, there is no shortage of policies with regards to tackling challenges across economic sectors, the housing sector inclusive. Affordable housing targets remain unmet partly due to security challenges in select locations, structural issues contributing to supply-side constraints and the current hazy macroeconomic environment which is also affecting demand dynamics. According to the Bank of Industry, N21trn (USD48.9bn) is required to close the current housing gap in Nigeria.

Forward steps with significant progress require partnerships with the private sector. We hope to see increased activity across the property market (both demand and supply) as the economy continues on an upward growth trajectory.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

Nigeria to Raise VAT to 10% Amid Revenue Crisis, Says Fiscal Policy Chairman

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Value added tax - Investors King

Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, has said the committee working on increasing the Valued Added Tax (VAT) from the current 7.5% to 10%.

Oyedele announced this during an interview on Channels TV’s Politics Today.

According to Oyedele, the tax law the committee drafted would be submitted to the National Assembly for approval.

He also said his committee was working to consolidate multiple taxes in Nigeria to ensure tax reduction.

He said, “We have significant issues in our tax revenue. We have issues of revenue generally which means tax and non-tax. You can describe the whole fiscal system in a state that is in crisis.

“When my committee was set up, we had three broad mandates. The first one was to look at governance: our finances as a country, borrowing, coordination within the federal government and across sub-national.

“The second one was revenue transformation. The revenue profile of the country is abysmally low. If you dedicate our whole revenue to fixing roads it will be insufficient. The third is on government assets.

“The law we are proposing to the National Assembly has the rate of 7.5% moving to 10% from 2025. We don’t know how soon they will be able to pass the law. Then subsequent increases are also indicated in terms of the year they will kick in.

“While we are doing that, we have a corresponding reduction in personal income tax. Anybody that is earning about N1.5 million a month or less, they will see their personal income tax come down. Companies will have income tax rate come down by 30% over the next two years to 25%. That is a significant reduction.

“Other taxes they pay are quite many: IT levy, education tax, etc. All these we are consolidating into a single one. They will pay 4% initially. That will go down to 2& in the next few years.”

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Nigerian Economy Surges 3.19% in Q2 2024, Service Sector Leads Growth

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Nigerian Breweries - Investors King

The Nigerian economy grew in the second quarter of 2024 by 3.19% year-on-year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

This is an improvement from the 2.98% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2024 and the 2.51% achieved during the same period in 2023.

The growth was driven predominantly by the service sector, which saw a 3.79% growth during the quarter and contributed 58.76% to Nigeria’s aggregate GDP.

The service sector, which includes industries such as telecommunications, banking, and hospitality, has become a significant driver of economic activity in Africa’s largest economy as it diversifies away from its traditional reliance on oil and agriculture.

In addition to the strength of the service sector, the industry sector also posted a positive performance, growing by 3.53% during the quarter.

This is a notable recovery from the -1.94% decline recorded in the same period in 2023.

The industry sector includes manufacturing, construction, and utilities, which have benefitted from increased investments and improvements in energy supply.

The agriculture sector, a longstanding pillar of the Nigerian economy, experienced a modest growth of 1.41%, slightly lower than the 1.50% recorded in the second quarter of 2023.

Despite the slower growth, agriculture remains vital to Nigeria’s economy, providing employment to millions of Nigerians and contributing to food security.

The overall 3.19% growth in GDP highlights the resilience of the Nigerian economy despite ongoing challenges such as inflation, currency depreciation, and insecurity.

Analysts had predicted a modest growth rate of around 3.16% for the second quarter, closely aligning with the actual performance.

The Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) also forecasted Nigeria’s annual average GDP growth to reach approximately 3.07% in 2024, which is consistent with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) revised projections.

The Q2 GDP performance supports these forecasts, providing cautious optimism for the remainder of the year.

While the growth of the Nigerian economy is a positive development, challenges remain. Inflation, particularly in food prices, continues to strain household incomes, and the naira’s depreciation has increased the cost of imports.

Also, infrastructure deficits and insecurity in various regions of the country pose obstacles to sustained economic expansion.

Despite these challenges, the continued growth in the service and industry sectors demonstrates Nigeria’s capacity to adapt and evolve in an increasingly diversified economy. If these sectors maintain their current trajectory, they could help mitigate some of the pressures facing the economy and improve living standards for Nigerians.

The government’s focus on economic reforms, including efforts to attract foreign investment, improve infrastructure, and enhance security, will be crucial in sustaining and building on the positive GDP growth in the coming quarters.

Economic diversification remains a key goal, and the strong performance of the service sector is a promising sign that Nigeria is moving in the right direction.

With cautious optimism, experts are hopeful that Nigeria can leverage its expanding sectors to achieve sustained economic growth and create more opportunities for its growing population.

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WTO’s Okonjo-Iweala Points to Declining Nigerian GDP Growth as Major Concern

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Ngozi Okonjo Iweala

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), has raised concerns about the country’s declining GDP growth.

Speaking at the annual General Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) on Sunday, Okonjo-Iweala highlighted a troubling trend that has marked the Nigerian economy since 2014.

Addressing an audience of legal professionals, policymakers, and economists, Okonjo-Iweala painted a grim picture of Nigeria’s economic performance, noting that the nation’s GDP growth rate has significantly deteriorated over the past decade.

She observed that between 2000 and 2014, Nigeria enjoyed a relatively robust average GDP growth rate of 3.8%, which notably outpaced the population growth rate of 2.6% annually.

This period was characterized by substantial economic advancements and improvements in living standards for many Nigerians.

However, the post-2014 era has been marked by economic stagnation and decline. According to Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate has turned negative, recording a troubling average decline of 0.9%.

This reversal, she argues, reflects the government’s failure to sustain the positive economic momentum achieved by previous administrations.

“The contrast between the two decades is striking,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “While the early 2000s brought significant economic progress, the subsequent years have seen a marked decline in GDP growth, which has directly impacted the average Nigerian’s quality of life.”

The WTO Director General attributed this decline to a combination of factors, including inconsistent economic policies, lack of effective reform implementation, and broader macroeconomic challenges.

She said despite various reform attempts and temporary economic improvements, Nigeria has struggled to build on and consolidate these gains.

“The inability to sustain economic growth has had severe repercussions,” Okonjo-Iweala continued. “Many Nigerians are facing diminished job prospects and reduced well-being, as the benefits of earlier growth have not been maintained or built upon.”

In her address, Okonjo-Iweala urged for urgent and comprehensive economic reforms to address these challenges.

She called on Nigerian policymakers to focus on strategies that promote sustainable growth, enhance economic stability, and improve the overall quality of life for the populace.

The call for action comes at a time when Nigeria is grappling with various economic pressures, including inflation, currency depreciation, and unemployment.

Okonjo-Iweala’s remarks underscore the need for renewed efforts to stabilize the economy and implement policies that can drive long-term growth and development.

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