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Deutsche Bank Sees Yuan Falling 17% as Capital Outflows Quicken

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  • Deutsche Bank Sees Yuan Falling 17% as Capital Outflows Quicken

The yuan will weaken 17 percent over the next two years as government efforts to cool the housing market, easier monetary policy and higher U.S. borrowing costs spur capital outflows, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

China’s currency will end 2017 and 2018 at 7.4 and 8.1, respectively, compared with Thursday’s rate of around 6.72 percent, economists Zhiwei Zhang and Li Zeng wrote in a report dated Thursday. The nation’s economic growth will probably slow to 6.2 percent next quarter, while outflows will intensify in the next few months, they wrote.

The yuan has fallen 0.8 percent this week as rising expectations of a U.S. rate hike by year-end boost the dollar and slumping exports dent the outlook for China’s economy. At least 21 mainland cities have introduced purchase restrictions and toughened mortgage lending since late September to restrain surging home prices. The monetary authority has refrained from lowering benchmark rates since October 2015.

“We believe a tightening Fed, a deflation of property bubble in China, and potential policy easing by the PBOC in 2017 will lead to persistent capital outflows,” Zhang and Zeng wrote.

While the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves appear to have stabilized, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has warned outflows may be larger than they look because an increasing amount of capital is exiting the country in yuan rather than in dollars.

Deutsche Bank’s bearish outlook on the yuan contrasts with that of the currency’s top forecaster, Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, which is more relaxed about the risks for further depreciation. Julian Trahorsch, an economist at the German bank, the most accurate forecaster of the yuan as ranked by Bloomberg, predicts the currency may start to rebound toward the end of next year as inflows rise and companies taper foreign debt repayments.

Deutsche Bank sees Shanghai’s reported move to tighten credit supply to property developers as a “significant step” by the government and more cities are expected to follow, according to the analysts, who cited a 21st Century Business Herald report.

“This is the first sign of credit tightening that targets developers, and it focuses on the land auction market, which we believe is a key to the rise of the property bubble,” the analysts wrote.

Economic Outlook

China’s financial regulators plan to tighten control on funds flowing into the property market in violation of current rules, according to people familiar with the matter. Authorities including the central bank aim to tighten control on speculative real-estate investments and money involved in land transactions, the people said.

Expansion in the world’s second-largest economy will slow in the first three months of next year, forcing the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates in the second quarter, according to the Deutsche Bank report.

The yuan fell 0.1 percent in Shanghai on Thursday, while the offshore rate retreated 0.2 percent. The currency has dropped 3.5 percent against the dollar this year, the biggest decline in Asia, and weakened 6.2 percent against a trade-weighted index. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey is for the yuan to finish this year at 6.75, and end 2018 at 6.79.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, May 2nd, 2024

As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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As of May 2nd, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,350 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,310 and sell it at N1,300 on Monday, April 29th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,350
  • Selling Rate: N1,340

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Forex

Yen’s Plunge Persists Despite Japan’s Late New York Trading Intervention

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Japan’s attempts to shore up the yen faced yet another setback as the currency continued its downward spiral despite a late intervention in New York trading.

Despite efforts by Japanese authorities to stem the yen’s decline, traders remained unfazed, indicating a growing skepticism towards the efficacy of such measures.

The yen, which had initially weakened as much as 1.1% against the dollar during Asia trading, stubbornly clung to its downward trajectory, inching closer to levels seen before the suspected intervention.

Speculations ran rife among traders regarding Japan’s involvement in the currency market after witnessing abrupt fluctuations in the yen’s value during the final stretch of the US trading session.

This recent development underscores a deepening challenge for Japanese policymakers grappling with the yen’s persistent depreciation.

Despite their best efforts, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly immune to intervention tactics, casting doubts on the effectiveness of such measures in the long run.

Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co., weighed in on the situation, remarking, “Japan’s finance ministry likely intervened but couldn’t break 152, where investors used to be cautious.”

He further noted, “Now that authorities are seen as having stepped in for a second time but gave the impression that they cannot stop the yen cheapening trend alone, market participants will likely feel more comfortable to short yen.”

The prevailing sentiment among traders suggests a growing consensus that Japan’s interventions may be insufficient to halt the yen’s depreciation trend.

Despite the authorities’ concerted efforts, the currency’s plunge persists, signaling a broader challenge for policymakers in navigating the complexities of the global currency market.

As the yen’s decline continues unabated, market participants remain on high alert, bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.

The inability of intervention measures to reverse the currency’s downward trajectory raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional policy tools in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable financial landscape.

In the face of mounting challenges, Japanese authorities may find themselves compelled to explore alternative strategies to address the yen’s persistent weakness.

Whether through unconventional policy measures or coordinated efforts with global counterparts, finding a sustainable solution to stabilize the yen remains a pressing priority for policymakers amid evolving market dynamics.

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Forex

BDC Operators in Abuja Face EFCC Crackdown: Chaos Erupts in Wuse Zone 4

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BDC Operators - Investors King

The bustling streets of Wuse Zone 4 in Abuja transformed into a scene of chaos and apprehension as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) conducted a surprise crackdown on Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The operation, which unfolded on Monday, sent shockwaves through the financial district, leaving traders and residents bewildered.

Eyewitnesses recounted scenes of pandemonium as EFCC agents descended upon the area, swiftly apprehending an undisclosed number of BDC operators.

The raid, which occurred around noon, disrupted normal trading activities and prompted fear among the local populace.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, BDC operators confirmed the raid, expressing dismay at the sudden turn of events.

“EFCC just raided the market, arresting many operators. They arrested some persons seen on the street and even pursued some persons to their offices. We are still looking for N30,000 or N50,000 to bail those arrested on Friday yet they came again today,” one trader lamented.

The crackdown comes as part of the EFCC’s concerted efforts to combat illicit financial activities and restore stability to the foreign exchange market.

Last Friday, the anti-graft agency announced the arrest of 34 suspected currency speculators for alleged involvement in foreign exchange fraud, signaling a firm stance against financial malpractice.

However, the EFCC’s actions have stirred controversy, with some questioning the efficacy of such raids in addressing underlying issues affecting the Nigerian currency.

Despite these efforts, the naira opened the week on a negative trajectory against the United States dollar, signaling potential challenges ahead.

At the official market on Monday, the naira witnessed a significant depreciation, trading at N1,419 against the dollar, representing a loss of N58 or 4.3% from the previous trading session.

The decline underscores the persistent demand for the greenback amid economic uncertainties.

Currency traders at the Zone 4 market reported heightened volatility, with the dollar trading at N1,340 per dollar, marking a notable increase from the weekend rate.

Amidst the turmoil, traders like Abubakar Taura navigated the fluctuating market, capitalizing on the volatility to secure profits.

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