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Forex Weekly Outlook October 17-21

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Forex Weekly Outlook October 17-21
  • Forex Weekly Outlook October 17-21

The US dollar gained against most of its counterparts last week, despite the consumer confidence index (87.9) falling to a year low in September. The economy continued to create jobs by maintaining a four decade low unemployment benefits at 246,000 in the week ended Oct.8, same as previous week.

Also, consumer spending rebounded in September surging 0.6 percent from previously declining 0.2 percent in August, while the producer price index rose 0.3 percent for the first time in three months, indicating that consumer prices may be picking up as the increase in costs (energy and food) are pass-on to consumers.

This is one of the reasons consumer confidence dropped in the said month, as consumers are likely to react to increase in costs, and also it explained Fed’s position as to why aggressive steps “high-pressure economy” may be needed to lower unemployment further and boost consumption simultaneously, even if it means at a higher inflation rate.

Accordingly, the Fed Chair Yellen Janet during 60th annual economic conference in Boston, Massachusetts on Friday noted that extreme economic events like the world is currently experiencing have challenged existing economic views in terms of what drive growth (demand and supply).

While, admitting this will necessitate further research from the profession and the Fed, she said there were evidences from post-financial crisis that aggregate increase in demand lead to appreciable effect on aggregate supply against widely accepted notion that an economic output over the long-term is equal to its resources (labour, costs and existing technologies).

This was because at a more accommodative monetary policy (interest rate 0.5%), unemployment rate has remained nearly stagnant and so is the output. Therefore, throwing the possibility of a December rate hike in doubt, especially saying that the influence of the labour market, that the financial markets thought will force the Fed to hike rates to curb inflation above its 2 percent target, on inflation rate is weaker than had been commonly thought prior to the financial crisis. However, consumer prices report due on Tuesday and building permit of Wednesday will help assess the level of inflation so as to determine how close to target the Fed really is and economic growth.

In China, producer prices rose 0.1 percent for the first time in five years, bolstering consumer inflation to 1.9 percent in September. However, exports fell 10 percent from a year earlier, reducing the world second largest economy’s trade surplus to $42 billion, even with weaker Yuan. This suggested that weaker Yuan have little effect on exports as the global slowdown has impacted shipments from both the European Union and United Kingdom. For instance, exports to the EU has dropped 9.8 percent, while that of U.K. and U.S have declined by 10.8 percent and 8.1 percent respectively.

While the probability of exports turning positive is high due to continuous weakening of the Yuan by the Chinese central bank and the usual surge in Christmas orders, sustainability remains the question. Next week, third quarter GDP report, industrial production, fixed asset investment and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) due on Wednesday will further throw light on the state of Chinese economy going forward.

In the UK, the sterling continued its decline against the US dollar and has so far lost 6 percent this month and down 17 percent this year. While Goldman Sachs and other analysts have said the embattled currency is still in for more punishment, the lower exchange rate will boost oversea orders and pressure consumer prices (inflation) above the Bank of England (BOE) 2 percent target.

This, will likely prompt BOE to either shun rising inflation and concentrate on growth as suggested by Mark Carney last statement on the economic outlook or attempt to curb inflation and risk growth. Inflation rate, producer prices, average earnings, consumer spending and unemployment rate are due this week, but these macro data are likely to have no positive effect on the economy as long as the confidence in the British market remains weak.

Overall, I expect the US dollar to lose some ground this week as investors look to understand Fed’s statement on the economy and come to terms with the possibility of the apex bank maintaining current interest rate while monitoring improvement across key sectors.  This week I will be looking at CADJPY, USDCAD and EURNZD.

CADJPY

This pair plunged to four year low last month, largely due to the Yen continuous gain and low oil prices that weigh on oil-dependent loonie. But after OPEC members agreed to cut production in September the pair halted losses and has since gained 386 pips. Although, Canada economic data remain weak, there is a possibility that a rebound in oil prices will fuel an increase in investment and improve exports.

cadjpyweekly

Click to enlarge

Technically, after a bullish pin bar was formed three weeks ago and the failure of the pair to break 77.05 support a week later showed this pair has halted the downward trend. But a sustained break of 79.23 resistance is needed to validate the bullish trend. This week, as long as price remains above 79.23, I am bullish on this pair this week with 82.05 as the target.

USDCAD

With the US dollar posed to retreat this week, coupled with the Russia and Saudi Wednesday’s agreement in Turkey to go ahead with production cut, this pair is expected to extend its decline this week. This week, I am bearish on this pair as long as 1.3142 holds with 1.3033 as the target.

usdcaddaily

Click to enlarge

EURNZD

With the euro-single currency enmeshed in Greece debt and Brexit issues this pair will likely extend its decline this week – especially if last week bearish pin bar is taking into consideration.  This week, as long as price remains below 1.5469 I am bearish on this pair this week with 1.5180 as the first target.

eurnzdweekly

Click to enlarge

Last Week Recap

The EURUSD hit our first target at 1.1019 last week, but this week I will be standing aside on this pair to evaluate Euro-area economic situation in relation to how the financial markets react to the greenback after Fed’s speech.

AUDUSD touched our 0.7505 target and immediately lost most of its gains for the week. This week, I will be standing aside on Aussie to monitor market reaction to its current position for two reasons, one, the Aussie dollar does not have much room to grow on the bullish side considering its nearing 78.34 US cents, its one-year peak. Two, the US dollar is likely to give up part of its gains so far this week, and with buyers adding to their long positions without substantial data to explain the reason for Thursday and Friday attractiveness. I will be standing aside to better assess the situation.

NZDUSD

This pair was 44 pips short of hitting our target at 0.6989 last week, but this week I will be waiting for confirmation of trend continuity to sell per adventure Kiwi extend its decline against the greenback, but for now I will be standing aside also, while monitoring data from RBNZ and market reaction to the current position of this pair.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Thursday, February 25, 2021

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Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Thursday, February 25, 2021

The Nigerian Naira traded at N480 to a United States Dollar in the early hours of Thursday, February 24, 2020 at the parallel market popularly known as the black market. While the British pound was exchanged at N670 and Euro sold for N580. See the details below.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
24/02/2021 475/480* 655/670* 570/580* 60/68 385/395 282/300
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
24/02/2021 470/480 654/660 570/578
24/02/2021 470/480 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

Date Currency Buying(NGN) Central(NGN) Selling(NGN)
2/24/2021 US DOLLAR 379 379.5 380
2/24/2021 POUNDS STERLING 535.7923 536.4992 537.206
2/24/2021 EURO 461.0914 461.6997 462.308
2/24/2021 SWISS FRANC 417.6309 418.1818 418.7328
2/24/2021 YEN 3.5805 3.5853 3.59
2/24/2021 CFA 0.6825 0.6925 0.7025
2/24/2021 WAUA 546.5445 547.2656 547.9866
2/24/2021 YUAN/RENMINBI 58.7606 58.8386 58.9166
2/24/2021 RIYAL 101.0505 101.1838 101.3171
2/24/2021 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND 26.0338 26.0681 26.1025

 

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Wednesday, February 24, 2021

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Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Naira remained weak against global counterparts as the local currency opened at N480 against the United States Dollar on the black market in the early morning of Wednesday,  February 24, 2020.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
24/02/2021 475/480 655/670 570/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
23/02/2021 475/480 655/665 575/582 60/68 385/395 282/300
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
24/02/2021 470/480 654/660 570/578
23/02/2021 470/478 654/660 570/578
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

 

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Naira

Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, February 22, 2021

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Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, February 22, 2021

Naira exchanged at N480 to a United States Dollar on Monday at the parallel market, while Pound and Euro traded at N660 and N580, respectively.

Daily Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
22/02/2021 475/480 652/660 575/580 60/68 385/395 282/300
19/02/2021 474/478 648/655 570/577 60/68 385/395 282/300
18/02/2021 472/477 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
17/02/2021 472/478 645/655 570/575 60/68 385/395 282/300
16/02/2021 465/473 645/652 565/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
15/02/2021 465/473 642/652 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
12/02/2021 465/473 642/650 562/570 60/68 385/395 282/300
11/02/2021 465/475 640/650 560/570 60/70 385/400 280/300
10/02/2021 472/478 645/652 565/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
09/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
08/02/2021 474/480 645/655 567/575 60/70 385/400 280/300
05/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
04/02/2021 474/480 645/653 567/578 60/70 385/400 280/300
03/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
02/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
01/02/2021 474/480 642/655 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300
29/01/2021 474/480 642/652 575/580 60/70 385/400 280/300

 Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
22/02/2021 470/477 650/656 570/577
19/02/2021 465/476 645/656 565/573
18/02/2021 465/475 640/652 563/570
17/02/2021 465/477 640/655 562/572
16/02/2021 460/475 640/652 562/570
15/02/2021 460/475 638/652 561/568
12/02/2021 467/475 635/650 562/570
11/02/2021 465/475 640/655 560/575
10/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
09/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
08/02/2021 472/478 640/655 565/575
05/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
04/02/2021 472/478 640/650 565/575
03/02/2021 471/478 640/650 572/580
02/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
01/02/2021 471/478 640/655 572/580
29/01/2021 471/477 640/648 570/579

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

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