Connect with us

Economy

Analysts Raise Concerns over Tier 2 Banks’ Health

Published

on

Recession bites

Although Nigerian banks are contending with the effects on earnings of weak oil prices, shortages of US dollars, devaluation of the naira and slowing economic growth, these challenges appear to be having a more profound effect on the Tier 2 banks, a report has indicated.

Analysts at Lagos-based CSL Stockbrokers Limited in a report titled: “A Health Check,” obtained by THISDAY, said the situation was having a weighty effect on the Tier 2 banks owing to lower efficiency levels, their less capacity to absorb losses, smaller margins and in some cases, inability to compete for quality loans resulting in lower asset quality.

The report was focused on Diamond Bank Plc, Sterling Bank and Fidelity Bank Plc, stating that the three banks are currently trading at an average price to earnings ratio of 2.5x and an average price-to-book value (PBV) of 0.2x. It stressed that such low valuations have not lured in investors who appear to be discounting these banks based on justifiable concerns over asset quality and capital adequacy.

According to the report, Diamond Bank is “currently dealing with deteriorating asset quality and capital adequacy issues.

“The bank has significant exposure to the oil and gas sector (37% of gross loans) and general commerce sectors (16% of gross loans), two sectors that have been hard hit by current macro-economic conditions.”

For Fidelity Bank, it pointed out that “though Fidelity Bank reports healthy asset quality ratios, we note that the bank has significant exposure to the oil and gas sector (25.8% of gross loans) and to the power sector (10.5% of gross loans).”

Furthermore, the report stated that although Fidelity Bank’s power sector loans do not currently form part of the bank’s non-performing loans, the sector is facing significant challenges presently.

“The bank has historically maintained high capital ratios but the recent devaluation of the naira has strained capital. At 16.4 per cent (compared with a regulatory minimum of 15.0%) we believe Fidelity might have capital issues to deal with in the near term.

“The bank also has a relatively high cost-to-income ratio (74.1% in H1 2016), which makes us believe that the bank’s capacity to absorb an elevated cost of risk (in the event of any deterioration of its oil and gas and power sector loans) is limited,” it added.

Commenting on Sterling Bank, the report stated that the devaluation of the naira in June put a strain on the bank’s capital position.

“The bank’s capital adequacy ratio of 10.9 per cent in first half of 2016 is close to its regulatory minimum of 10 per cent (for banks without international subsidiaries). Though the bank’s non-performing loan ratio and cost of risk remain at manageable levels, the bank also has a relatively high exposure (about 40% of gross loans) to the troubled oil and gas sector.

“The bank’s apparent difficulty in successfully raising capital and its relatively high cost-to-income ratio (76%), which makes it difficult for the bank to absorb an elevated cost of risk, puts a cap on its valuation in our view,” it added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

Published

on

Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

Published

on

IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

Continue Reading

Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

Published

on

South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending